Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Finanza e Sistema Bancario

Banche Centrali russa, cinese e giapponese. Sono in corso grandi manovre.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2018-06-25.

2018-06-22__Banche Centrali russa e cinese. Sono in corso grandi manovre.__001

Le Banche Centrali russa, cinese e giapponese stanno rimaneggiando in modo consistente gli assetti delle loro riserve valutarie.

«holdings of U.S. government debt cut in half to $48.7 billion»

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«Russia is rethinking what counts as a haven asset as it duels with the U.S.»

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«it’s about changing allocation as reserves continue to grow …. Rising U.S. yields have fueled the sell-off.»

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«Russia sold $47.4 billion of Treasuries in April, more than any other major foreign holder of the U.S. securities, even as its reserves grew on the back of rising oil prices. Its stockpile of $48.7 billion is down from a 2010 peak of over $176 billion, ranking it only 22nd worldwide»

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«By contrast, the central bank keeps adding to its gold hoard, bringing the share of bullion in its international reserves to the highest of President Vladimir Putin’s 18 years in power»

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«The Bank of Russia said on Wednesday that its holdings of gold rose by 1 percent in May to 62 million troy ounces, valuing them at $80.5 billion»

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«Considering the size of Russia’s Treasury holdings, its move hardly made a dent in the $14.9 trillion Treasuries market»

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«China’s holdings of U.S. bonds, bills and notes decreased by $5.8 billion to $1.18 trillion in April »

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«Japan, saw its Treasuries drop by $12.3 billion to $1.03 trillion»

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La tabella di dati prodota dalla International Reserves of the Russian Federation (End of period), International Reserves of the Russian Federation (End of period), The Central Ban of the Russian Federation, è davvero molto eloquente. La Russia dispone ora di 1,909.8 tonnellate di oro, per un controvalore riportato di 80.5 miliardi Usd.

Sono molteplici le cause che hanno indotto queste tre banche centrali ad immettere sul mercato una parte delle riserve valutarie detenute in Treasury. Forse un delle principali risiede nel fatto che all’aumento dei tassi di interesse stabiliti dalla Fed consegue una riduzione delle quotazioni. Tuttavia altri scopi non sono sicuramente da escludersi.

Nessuno si faccia illusioni.

Tra un qualche tempo anche noi italiani ne sentiremo gli effetti.


Bloomberg. 2018-06-21. Russia Dumps Treasuries for Gold

– holdings of U.S. government debt cut in half to $48.7 billion

– Danske says move is about ‘keeping money safe’ from U.S.

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Russia is rethinking what counts as a haven asset as it duels with the U.S.

Although investors usually seek safety in U.S. debt, Russia cut its holdings of Treasuries nearly in half in April as Washington slapped the harshest sanctions to date on a selection of Russian companies and individuals. In a shift Danske Bank A/S attributed to a deepening “geopolitical standoff,” Russia is instead keeping up its purchases of gold.

“Some people ask whether the Russian central bank sold them to support the ruble in April, but it’s about changing allocation as reserves continue to grow,” said Vladimir Miklashevsky, a senior economist at Danske Bank in Helsinki. “Rising U.S. yields have fueled the sell-off.”

Russia sold $47.4 billion of Treasuries in April, more than any other major foreign holder of the U.S. securities, even as its reserves grew on the back of rising oil prices. Its stockpile of $48.7 billion is down from a 2010 peak of over $176 billion, ranking it only 22nd worldwide, according to data released Friday.

By contrast, the central bank keeps adding to its gold hoard, bringing the share of bullion in its international reserves to the highest of President Vladimir Putin’s 18 years in power. The Bank of Russia said on Wednesday that its holdings of gold rose by 1 percent in May to 62 million troy ounces, valuing them at $80.5 billion. In May, Governor Elvira Nabiullina said gold purchases help diversify reserves.

Poor Returns

With the geopolitical stakes so high, Russia may not be overly concerned about returns on its investment. Still, gold has underperformed U.S. debt so far this year, losing over 3 percent as the outlook for higher borrowing costs dimmed prospects for the metal, which doesn’t pay interest. Meanwhile, after handing investors positive returns for the past four years straight, Treasuries have generated a loss of 1.6 percent in 2018.

Putin warned shortly after his inauguration for a fourth term as president that Russia is seeking to “break” from the dollar and diversify reserves to bolster “economic sovereignty.” But according to the central bank’s latest data, the U.S. currency’s share in reserves climbed to nearly 46 percent in 2017, up from over 40 percent the previous year.

Considering the size of Russia’s Treasury holdings, its move hardly made a dent in the $14.9 trillion Treasuries market. A bigger question is whether China — which owned $1.18 trillion of U.S. debt as of April 30 — will follow its neighbor’s lead.

“China could do the same if the trade war gets too bad,” Miklashevsky said. “That tool has been used before. In Russia, it’s more about keeping the money safe from sanctions because they need it for a rainy day.”


Bloomberg. 2018-06-21. China’s U.S. Treasuries Holdings Fell $5.8 Billion in April

– Overall foreign ownership declined to $6.17 trillion

– Japan’s tally dropped to $1.03 trillion, lowest since 2011

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China remained the largest foreign owner of Treasuries in April even with a slight drop in holdings, as the Asian nation’s appetite for U.S. government debt shows few signs of waning amid growing tensions over trade.

China’s holdings of U.S. bonds, bills and notes decreased by $5.8 billion to $1.18 trillion in April, according to Treasury Department data released in Washington on Friday. The second-biggest foreign holder, Japan, saw its Treasuries drop by $12.3 billion to $1.03 trillion, the lowest since 2011. Overall, foreign ownership of Treasuries receded in April, falling to $6.17 trillion.

While investors grew jittery in March that Beijing would scale back purchases of Treasuries to retaliate against the U.S. for new tariffs, China has shown little interest in disrupting financial markets over trade. The Asian nation has instead pledged to impose levies of its own on American goods in response to President Donald Trump’s plan to slap tariffs on at least $50 billion of Chinese imports starting next month.

“So far, we don’t see any evidence that China’s using its Treasuries as part of the trade negotiations,” said Zach Pandl, co-head of global FX strategy at Goldman Sachs. “China continues to be a regular and reliable purchaser of Treasuries when its reserve assets are rising, and that remains the case today.”

Japan’s holdings dropped as expensive hedging costs continue to sour them on U.S. debt. For buyers in Japan who use swaps to protect against currency swings, the yield on 10-year Treasuries is a mere 0.38 percent. That compares with the 2.92 percent yield available to those purchasing U.S. 10-year notes unhedged.

The yuan has depreciated about 1 percent against the dollar over the past month amid a broad decline in emerging-market currencies. The nation’s stockpile of foreign-exchange reserves fell for a second straight month in May, to $3.11 trillion, as a weaker exchange rate impacted the valuation of the dollar-denominated stockpile.

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