Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Unione Europea

Ungheria. Banca Centrale e gestione del Fiorino. – Bloomberg.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2018-06-23.

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«GDP in Hungary grows 1.2%

Gross Domestic Product of Hungary grew 1.2% in the first quarter of 2018 compared to the previous quarter. This rate is 1 -tenth of one percent “} less than the figure of 1.3% published in the forth quarter of 2017.

The year-on-year change in GDP was 4.7%, 2 -tenths of one percent less than the 4.9% recorded in the forth quarter of 2017.

The GDP figure in the first quarter of 2018 was $26,369 million, Hungary is number 38 in the ranking of quarterly GDP of the 50 countries that we publish.

Hungary has a quarterly GDP per capita, of $3,308, $244 higher than the same quarter last year, it was .

If we order the countries according to their GDP per capita, Hungary is in 36th position. According to this parameter, its population has a low level of affluence compare to the 50 countries whose quarterly GDP we publish.» [Fonte]

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«Hungary’s central bank is facing the biggest test in six years to its loose monetary policy»

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«Emerging-market turmoil has pushed the forint to its weakest in more than three years, while government bond yields have jumped, defying measures to keep them anchored»

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«The question when the bank meets Tuesday is whether to stick to its easy-money pledge or present a plan toward tightening»

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«Investors are rethinking their approach to riskier developing-nation assets, prompting currency pain and emergency interest-rate hikes from Argentina to Turkey»

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Che l’attuale situazione sia caratterizzata da turbolenze strutturali dovrebbe essere sotto gli occhi di tutti.

A nostro pare però le condizioni economiche nella quali versa l’Ungheria sono ben differenti da quelle di Argentina e Turkia., basterebbe solo guardare i tassi di interesse corrisposti sui titoli di debito pubblico.


Bloomberg. 2018-06-19. Emerging-Market Chaos Poses Dilemma for Hungary’s Central Bank

– Rate-setters to decide whether to stick to loose-money policy

– Forint has weakened more than regional peers in recent weeks

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Hungary’s central bank is facing the biggest test in six years to its loose monetary policy.

Emerging-market turmoil has pushed the forint to its weakest in more than three years, while government bond yields have jumped, defying measures to keep them anchored. The question when the bank meets Tuesday is whether to stick to its easy-money pledge or present a plan toward tightening. Economists see the two main interest rates staying at record lows.

“The central bank will need to seriously think about the further continuation and efficiency of its ultra-loose monetary policy,” Zoltan Arokszallasi, an analyst at Erste Group Bank AG in Vienna, said in an emailed note. The bank “could reassess some of its instruments and review some of its interim goals in order to restore confidence.”

Investors are rethinking their approach to riskier developing-nation assets, prompting currency pain and emergency interest-rate hikes from Argentina to Turkey. But it’s far from certain Hungary will take action. Despite the market pressure, rate-setters indicated last week that tightening remains unnecessary unless inflation quickens to endanger the 3 percent target.

Eyes will be on the Monetary Council’s statement, due at 3 p.m. in Budapest, an hour after the decisions on rates, for an updated outlook on the bank’s unconventional policy. The bank will also publish new economic forecasts, probably showing faster consumer-price growth because of higher oil prices. The most recent projection, from March, put 2018 inflation at 2.5 percent.

While Hungary has shunned the monetary tightening seen in other parts of eastern Europe, its economy is benefiting from the same forces driving growth across the region. Its budget deficit remains within European Union limits and the current account is in surplus. For some investors, that’s grounds to not veer sharply away from the dovish tone.

“We’d expect only incremental change,” Morgan Stanley analyst Pasquale Diana said in an emailed note. “Only more pronounced weakness in the currency, in the order of 7 percent-10 percent, is likely to create pressure on the central bank to tighten more aggressively.”

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