Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Sistemi Economici, Sistemi Politici

Populisti. Governano già il 41% del pil dei G-20. – Bloomberg.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2018-06-14.

Vincent-Van-Gogh-Vecchi-Scarponi1

Attenzione. Nell’articolo citato il termine “populista” definisce qualsiasi tipo di reggimento politico differente da quello occidentale tradizionale, liberal. È questa una definizione molto opinabile, ma la si deve accettare almeno durante la lettura dell’articolo allegato: in caso contrario risulterebbe impossibile comprenderlo.

L’autore ne da una descrizione: “to defend the common man against corrupt elites, offering common-sense solutions to complex policy debates, and national unity above cosmopolitan inclusion”. Per l’economia del presente discorso potrebbe essere considerata essere ragionevole.



«In the Group of 20, just 32 percent of gross domestic product is controlled by mainstream democratic parties, down from 83 percent in 2007»

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«Over the same period, the power of populist parties’ has surged to 41 percent of GDP from 4 percent»

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«That’s a significant shift in the way the world economy is run»

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«At the heart of the rise of populism and authoritarianism is a failure by Western democracies to manage the forces unleashed by globalization and technology. The specific catalyst was the 2008 global financial crisis and the high unemployment that followed, which reflected the policy failures of mainstream parties»

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«Populist parties — which claim to defend the common man against corrupt elites, offering common-sense solutions to complex policy debates, and national unity above cosmopolitan inclusion — have risen into the vacuum created by the financial crisis»

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«the rise of China means authoritarian regimes, with strong central power and limited political freedom, are playing an expanded role»

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«Non-democratic regimes: China, Russia, Saudi Arabia and Turkey are now managing 24 percent of the G-20’s GDP; indeed China accounts for almost 19 percent, up from 8 percent a decade earlier»

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«High-quality regulation and government effectiveness correlate more closely with growth than democratic values like voice and accountability»

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Se i numeri sono chiari, le previsioni lo sono altrettanto.

International Monetary Fund World Economic Outlook (October – 2017)

Le proiezioni al 2022 danno la Cina ad un pil ppa di 34,465 (20.54%) miliardi di Usd, gli Stati Uniti di 23,505 (14.01%), e l’India di 15,262 9.10%) Usd. Seguono Giappone con 6,163 (3.67%),  Germania (4.932%), Regno Unito 3,456 (2.06%), Francia 3,427 (2.04%), Italia 2,677 (1.60%). Russia 4.771 (2.84%) e Brasile 3,915 (2.33%).

I paesi del G7 produrranno 46,293 (27.59%) mld Usd del pil mondiale, mentre i paesi del Brics renderanno conto di 59,331 mld Usd (35.36%).

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In estrema sintesi, Bloomberg constata come i governi ad impronta liberal siano rimasti in pochi e con il controllo di una parte modesta del pil occidentale. Controllo che le recenti tornate elettorali hanno consegnato prevalentemente ai populisti. I populisti controllano infatti il 41% del pil contro il 32% dei liberal, qui designati come ‘democratici‘.

Tramonto non dell’Occidente ma della dottrina illuminista.

Questi dati pongono numerosi interrogativi, tutti di ampia portata. Ne focalizzeremo solo alcuni.

Se nel 2007 i partiti ‘democratici’ governavano l’83% del pil dei G-20, ad oggi ne governano il 32%.

Le così dette ‘democrazie‘ sono crollate in modo vistoso ed inconfutabile, franamento che non può essere imputato al solo vorticoso cresce dei paesi ex – emergenti.

È la struttura stessa degli stati occidentali ad essere diventata inidonea a gestire i tempi correnti.

Se si avesse anche solo per qualche istante il coraggio di guardare la realtà per quello che è e non per quello che si vorrebbe, la seguente enunciazione sembrerebbe davvero corretta:

«High-quality regulation and government effectiveness correlate more closely with growth than democratic values like voice and accountability»

I governi occidentali hanno strutture politiche e filiere decisionali obsolete, ridondanti, assurdamente lente.

Un solo esempio: i trattati del’Unione Europea, comprendendo appendici, circolari esplicative e via quant’altro, assommano a 170,000 pagine. Sono un tutto ingestibile, indipendentemente da chi sia al governo.

La così detta divisione dei poteri porta poi ad una conflittualità interna paralizzante.

Il suffragio universale obbliga ad ascoltare la volontà della maggioranza, che spesso ha difficoltà a vedere i problemi nella loro complessità e sembrerebbe essere incapace di procedere a ragionamenti sul lungo termine.

Il regime parlamentare poi impone spesso coalizioni contra natura e tempi decisionali dilatati nel tempo.

Tutti problemi di vasta portata, ma che se non saranno risolti in breve tempo, diverrebbe inutile risolverli.


Bloomberg. 2018-06-05. In G-20, 41% of GDP Controlled by Populists vs 4% in 2007

– Mainstream democratic parties now control 32% of G-20’s output

– Key catalyst is 2008 financial crisis and ensuing unemployment

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Democrats’ sway in major economies is on the wane.

In the Group of 20, just 32 percent of gross domestic product is controlled by mainstream democratic parties, down from 83 percent in 2007, according to Tom Orlik at Bloomberg Economics. Over the same period, the power of populist parties’ has surged to 41 percent of GDP from 4 percent.

“That’s a significant shift in the way the world economy is run,” Orlik and Associate Economist Justin Jimenez said in a Global Insight article Tuesday. “So far it has not had a major negative impact on growth and financial stability. Maybe it’s only a matter of time?”

G-20 GDP Share by Governance, Labor Share of Income

At the heart of the rise of populism and authoritarianism is a failure by Western democracies to manage the forces unleashed by globalization and technology. The specific catalyst was the 2008 global financial crisis and the high unemployment that followed, which reflected the policy failures of mainstream parties.

Populist parties — which claim to defend the common man against corrupt elites, offering common-sense solutions to complex policy debates, and national unity above cosmopolitan inclusion — have risen into the vacuum created by the financial crisis.

Moreover, the rise of China means authoritarian regimes, with strong central power and limited political freedom, are playing an expanded role.

Top Parties in Western Democracies — Share of Vote

Non-democratic regimes: China, Russia, Saudi Arabia and Turkey are now managing 24 percent of the G-20’s GDP; indeed China accounts for almost 19 percent, up from 8 percent a decade earlier.

But it’s not time to pull out the “end is nigh” placards yet, Orlik said. For the G-20 as a whole, GDP growth accelerated to 3.8 percent in 2017, the fastest pace since 2011. In part, he said, that’s because populists got lucky: they fed off economic discontent from the financial crisis, but ultimately inheriting an upswing. The U.S. fiscal package and a pro-business stance in China and India are also helping.

But there’s more to it than dump luck and stimulus. Some aspects of good governance are more important for growth than others, Orlik said, adding this may be uncomfortable for democracy advocates.

Governance vs Growth — Breakdown

“High-quality regulation and government effectiveness correlate more closely with growth than democratic values like voice and accountability,” Orlik notes. “Looking at the G-20 in those terms, the trajectory on governance looks less alarming. Democratic standards are deteriorating, but quality of regulation and government effectiveness are more stable, even edging up in recent years.”

But, Orlik adds, government effectiveness and high-quality regulation are tough to maintain in the absence of policy debate and accountability for leaders. So he remains skeptical that the new rulers of the world’s major economies will be able to decouple long-term growth from the institutions that underpin good governance.

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