Giuseppe Sandro Mela.
I dati rilasciati dall’Istituto di Statistica della Germania Federale sono inequivocabili: il sistema produttivo industriale tedesco è in crisi, per non voler usare il termine recessione. Gli ordinativi dall’eurozona sono crollati del -9.9%.
«price-adjusted new orders in manufacturing had decreased in April 2018 a seasonally and calendar adjusted 2.5% on the previous month»
«Domestic orders decreased by 4.8% and foreign orders decreased by 0.8% in April 2018 on the previous month»
«New orders from the euro area were down 9.9%»
«The manufacturers of capital goods showed decreases of 5.6% on the previous month»
* * * ** * *
I dati sono questi: possono essere discussi a piacere, ma restano pur sempre questi.
Interessante la discussione proposta dal Deutsche Welle.
«Contracts for German goods were down 2.5 percent from March ….
Orders from Germany’s neighbors in the eurozone dropped by 9.9 percent month on month, while domestic contracts fell by 4.8 percent ….
The overall drop in industrial orders disappointed analysts who’d penciled in a slight pickup on the back of a raft of strong economic indicators, including rising retail sales and record-low unemployment. ….
Industry organizations suggested the downturn may have been caused by growing uncertainties over looming trade conflicts ….
But they also mentioned other fears hanging over Germany’s and Europe’s economy, ranging from the big spending plans of Italy’s new government that may plunge the eurozone into another crisis, to stalled progress in negotiations over Britain’s 2019 departure from the EU. »
Questi commenti lasciano stupiti e perplessi, perché sembrerebbero non tenere in conto altri fattori di notevole portata.
Eurostat riferisce che il costo orario del lavoro in Germania è 34.1 euro, contro il 25.7 del Regno Unito, l’11,3 della Repubblica Cecka ed il 9.1 dell’Ungheria. È un valore che incide molto sul prezzo finale.
Non solo. Una produzione industriale rivolta alle esportazioni può sopravvivere solo sotto la condizione che il governo pratichi una politica estera che la promuova e la spinga, proponendola in modo amichevolmente appetibile ai possibili acquirenti esteri, che dovrebbero essere approcciati in modo paritetico.
La parola usata da Cnn sembrerebbe essere particolarmente significativa: “arroganza“. Con quella, si litiga con tutto il mondo, e chi litiga non vende.
→ Destatis. 2018-06-07. Manufacturing in April 2018: New orders –2.5% seasonally adjusted on the previous month
April 2018 (provisional): new orders in manufacturing
–2.5% on the previous month (price, seasonally and calendar adjusted)
–0.1% on the same month a year earlier (price and calendar adjusted)
March 2018 (revised): new orders in manufacturing
–1.1% on the previous month (price, seasonally and calendar adjusted)
+2.9% on the same month a year earlier (price and calendar adjusted)
Based on provisional data, the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) reports that price-adjusted new orders in manufacturing had decreased in April 2018 a seasonally and calendar adjusted 2.5% on the previous month. For March 2018, revision of the preliminary outcome resulted in a decrease of 1.1% compared with February 2018 (primary –0.9%). Price-adjusted new orders without major orders in manufacturing had decreased in April 2018 a seasonally and calendar adjusted 1.7% on the previous month.
Domestic orders decreased by 4.8% and foreign orders decreased by 0.8% in April 2018 on the previous month. New orders from the euro area were down 9.9%, new orders from other countries increased 5.4% compared to March 2018.
In April 2018 the manufacturers of intermediate goods saw new orders rise by 2.5% compared with March 2018. The manufacturers of capital goods showed decreases of 5.6% on the previous month. For consumer goods, a decrease in new orders of 2.2% was recorded.
Turnover +0.3% seasonally adjusted on the previous month
The price-adjusted turnover in manufacturing in April 2018 was up a seasonally and calendar adjusted 0.3% on the previous month. In March 2018, the corrected figure shows an increase of 0.6% to February 2018 (primary value: +0.4%).
The data shown here on new orders and turnover are based on the volume index of manufacturing, seasonally and calendar adjusted by means of X13 JDemetra+. The underlying mathematical-statistical method is not fundamentally different from the previously applied method X-12-ARIMA.