Pubblicato in: Cina, Problemia Energetici

Dimenticate Russia, Arabia, Iran, Opec. È la Cina che fa i prezzi del petrolio.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2018-05-18.

Pechino-Città-Proibita-da-Piazza-Tiananmen

Quanto accaduto questo febbraio era stato ampiamente annunciato e previsto da anni ma, come accade di abitudine, solo gli addetti ai lavori avevano preso sul serio quanto i dati suggerivano. Ed anche adesso che il fatto è successo, ben pochi ne sono a conoscenza o, se lo sanno, ne traggono le dovute conseguenze.

Se è vero che l’informazione corretta è il presupposto per arricchirsi, sarebbe altrettanto vero il dover constatare quante poche persone sappiano recepirla ed utilizzarla.

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China’s Becomes World’s Next Top Oil Importer

«For most of 2017, China’s crude oil imports exceeded those of the U.S. on a monthly basis. Now Chinese crude oil import volumes also surpassed the American imports in annual figures. China was the top oil importing country in the world last year as it brings more refining capacity online and fills strategic inventories, while domestic oil production continues to decline.

Chinese crude oil imports will continue to grow over the next few years as the use of oil products grow along with the economic and refinery capacity expansion, analysts say. The country’s import dependence is also expected to grow as imports rise and production at home declines.

Last year, China surpassed the U.S. in annual gross crude oil imports, EIA data showed on Monday. China imported on average 8.4 million bpd in 2017, compared with 7.9 million bpd of imports for the United States. In total petroleum and other liquid fuels imports, China had become the top global net importer back in 2013. ….

Crude oil production alone fell by an annual 4 percent to 191.51 million tons — or about 3.85 million bpd in 2017 — to the lowest in nine years, due to maturing fields and few viable new discoveries at home»

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China surpassed the United States as the world’s largest crude oil importer in 2017

«China surpassed the United States in annual gross crude oil imports in 2017, importing 8.4 million barrels per day (b/d) compared with 7.9 million b/d for the United States. China had become the world’s largest net importer (imports minus exports) of total petroleum and other liquid fuels in 2013. New refinery capacity and strategic inventory stockpiling combined with declining domestic oil production were the major factors contributing to the recent increase in China’s crude oil imports.

In 2017, 56% of China’s crude oil imports came from countries within the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), a decline from the peak of 67% in 2012. More so than other countries, Russia and Brazil increased their market shares of Chinese imports between those years from 9% to 14% and from 2% to 5%, respectively.

Russia surpassed Saudi Arabia as China’s largest source of foreign crude oil in 2016, exporting 1.2 million b/d to China in 2017 compared with Saudi Arabia’s 1.0 million b/d. OPEC countries and some non-OPEC countries, including Russia, agreed to reduce crude oil production through the end of 2018, which may have allowed other countries to increase their market shares in China in 2017.»

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China’s Crude Oil Imports Rose 20% in January

«China released its trade data for January. In dollar terms, China’s exports rose 11.1% YoY (year-over-year), while its imports rose 36.9%. The data, especially on imports, showed an improvement from December. China’s exports rose 10.9% YoY, while imports rose 4.9% YoY in December. China’s January trade data were better than expected for exports and imports. ….

In January, China’s crude imports rose 20% YoY to 40.6 million tons—up from 33.7 million tons in December 2017. On a daily basis, China imported 9.57 MMbpd (million barrels per day)—compared to 7.94 MMbpd in December. China’s imports rose 20% from the previous month.»

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Lo sprovvido disse allo stolto:

«Cosa mi importa di tutto ciò? Sto ascoltando i mottetti di Guillaume Bouzignac nel mio super hi-fi, mi diletto a leggere i sonetti di Meo de’ Tolomei, sul comodino ho i frammenti delle storie di Nicostrato di Trapezunte, ed in garage ho una Tesla Model 3. Che mi cale di Liu He: e chi mai sarà costui?»

Altri levi menti vanno bofonchiando all’orecchio di compari baccelloni:

«La Cina è antidemocratica, autocratica, tirannica, liberticida. Tratta i lavoratori peggio degli schiavi di Macarunte.»

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«La sventurata rispose», direbbe il buon Manzoni.

International Monetary Fund World Economic Outlook (October – 2017) fa queste previsioni.

«Le proiezioni al 2022 danno la Cina ad un pil ppa di 34,465 (20.54%) miliardi di Usd, gli Stati Uniti di 23,505 (14.01%), e l’India di 15,262 9.10%) Usd. Seguono Giappone con 6,163 (3.67%),  Germania (4.932%), Regno Unito 3,456 (2.06%), Francia 3,427 (2.04%), Italia 2,677 (1.60%). India 15,262 (9.10%), Russia 4.771 (2.84%), Brasile 3,915 (2.33%).

I paesi del G7 produrranno 46,293 (27.59%) mld Usd del pil mondiale, mentre i paesi del Brics renderanno conto di 59,331 mld Usd (35.36%).»

Ora che la Cina si è conquistata una salda situazione produttiva, economica e finanziaria, inizia a rivolgere la attenzione al mercato interno.

Se la gente non guadagna a sufficienza non può esistere un mercato interno, diceva saggiamente Deng Xiaoping.

Di qui il varo di un grandioso progetto rivolto proprio al mercato interno.

Cina ed emersione dalla povertà rurale.

Cina. Popolazione a basso reddito dal 36.9% all’11% entro il 2030.

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Ma mettere in moto un mercato formato da un miliardo e trecento milioni di persone significa dover disporre di adeguati supporti energetici.

Cina. Centrali elettriche nucleari. 37 reattori attivi, 60 in costruzione, 179 programmati.

A fine dicembre 2017 la Cina importava 9.57 milioni di barili di petrolio.

La flotta di autoveicoli nell’Unione Europea ammontava nel 2014 a circa 253 milioni di automezzi e 38 milioni di veicoli commerciali ed industriali.

Una Cina pienamente motorizzata dovrebbe assestarsi sui 750 milioni di autovetture: al momento sono 154 milioni. Solo per autotrazione civile la Cina dovrebbe quintuplicare in pochi anni le importazioni petrolifere.

Sarà una richiesta immane, che non potrà non far levitare i prezzi dei combustibili fossili.

In quel momento potranno permettersi il petrolio, e quindi la benzina, solo le società che producono ricchezza.

Nota.

Se questo articolo verte la Cina, non ci si dimentichi quanto velocemente stia sviluppandosi l’India: tra qualche lustro al miliardo e trecentocinquanta milioni di cinesi si aggiungerà anche il miliardo di indiani. Le richieste energetiche saliranno bruscamente.


Bloomberg. 2018-05-10. Forget Iran. The Real Oil Action Is in China

Surging products exports and declining domestic fields are driving an imports boom.

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Forget Iran, shale and Opec. The real action in the oil market is happening on the other side of the globe.

China overtook the U.S. as the world’s largest oil importer last year, and for 2018, it’s hoping to beat that achievement. April imports of 39.46 million metric tons reported late Tuesday came off the back of a string of blockbuster months. Until the start of this year, China had never imported much more than 37 million tons in any single month. So far in 2018, only February, shortened by the Lunar New Year holiday, failed to exceed that amount.

It wasn’t meant to be like this.

Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and the International Energy Agency expect China’s demand growth to start slowing toward an annual pace of 300,000 additional barrels a day over the next few years as the nation switches from its headlong pace of industrialization and the rise of electric vehicles crimps gasoline demand.

Opec revised its numbers upward for 2017, and the same may happen this year. The 5.1-million-ton increase in China’s April crude imports compared to a year earlier on its own represents growth of about 1.2 million barrels a day.

A few things might help account for this. China’s domestic oilfields are struggling to keep up with demand as wells get tapped out and the government pushes the big three state-owned firms to instead produce more gas. As a result, the country is leaning more heavily on imports — so even a slower pace of domestic demand growth can have an outsized impact on global markets.

Another factor is that much of this crude isn’t ultimately being consumed in China. Exports of refined products have been surging as authorities relax quotas on the trade, with Morgan Stanley analyst Andy Meng estimating that the volume of products permitted under export quotas granted in 2018 already exceeds the total for the whole of last year. In that sense, this isn’t so much a story of China’s booming domestic demand as the perennial habit of its manufacturing sector to go over-capacity.

Filling Up

The 26 million tons of net product exports over the past 12 months would be enough to turn a country that was until a few years ago one of the larger importers of refined petroleum into a major exporter on a par with South Korea, Kuwait and India.

Even China’s teapot refineries — non-state-owned plants mainly in Shandong province, which are traditionally operating less than half the time — have been seeing operating rates nudging close to levels where they should be able to make a profit.

Shorter Tea Break

The sanguine response of oil prices to news of President Donald Trump’s decision to withdraw from the 2015 accord on Iran’s nuclear program has been explained by the fact that the decision was widely expected, and that crude tends to find a way round such restrictions. The strength of Chinese demand — in particular, whether the current strong figures play out over the course of the year or represent a short-term stock build — could prove a decisive factor on that front.

The yuan-denominated crude contract recently launched in Shanghai may be one of the easiest ways for Iran to get past U.S. sanctions, which are typically enforced when banks attempt to clear dollar-denominated trades in New York. Beijing has been shifting its oil purchases away from the Persian Gulf and toward Russia, the U.S., Brazil, Angola and Malaysia in recent years, but a sudden lack of Western buyers would be the perfect opportunity for Chinese refiners to get back into the market for Tehran’s crude.

Yawning Gulf

Looking at supply is crucial for understanding crude, but it’s not everything. Right now, the strength of China’s demand may be the most underappreciated story in the market.

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