Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Stati Uniti, Trump

Trump. Midterm. I repubblicani manterrebbero il senato. – Cnbc

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2018-03-09.

Donald Trump photographed at Trump Tower in NYC
Donald Trump photographed at the Trump Tower on 5th Ave. in Manhattan, NYC on Monday, September 21, 2015. (Damon Winter/ The New York Times)

Trump. Sondaggio fatto su oltre 600,000 elettori.

The Last Two Weeks of Polls Have Been Great for Republicans. Do They Signal a Shift? [The New York Times]

Trump. Indice di popolarità Rasmussen al 48%.

Trump. I liberal democratici pagheranno la riforma fiscale federale.

Trump. Il piano infrastrutturale da 1,500 mld Usd.

Trump il Grande. Il Senato approva il taglio delle tasse.

Trump il Grande. La riducendo le tasse aumentano stipendi, pensioni ed investimenti. 2,800 miliardi.

Trump il Grande. Adesso nel collimatore c’è il deep state.

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Il Politico, giornale liberal di specchiata fede, riporta questo titolo:

Poll: GOP gains on generic ballot, Trump approval ticks upward

«Republicans have erased the Democratic advantage on the generic congressional ballot in a new POLITICO/Morning Consult poll that, for the first time since April, also shows President Donald Trump’s approval rating equaling the percentage of voters who disapprove of his job performance.

Fully 39 percent of registered voters say they would support the GOP candidate for Congress in their district, while 38 percent would back the Democratic candidate. Nearly a quarter of voters, 23 percent, are undecided.»

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La Cnbc riporta:

«The Democrats’ lead on generic ballots has grown smaller since last year, as voters approve more of Republicans’ handling of the economy»

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Cerchiamo di ragionare.

In primo luogo, si dovrebbe cercare di evitare l’errore fatto nel valutare le prospezioni durante la campagna presidenziale. Sia per il senato sia per il congresso il voto americano è fortemente influenzato dalla situazione locale, contingente e dal candidato proposto. Sbagliare il candidato fa perdere un seggio dato per sicuro. E le elezioni si svolgono per distretto. In altri termini, la percentuale di voti presi da un partito in sede nazionale non riflette il numero di deputati conquistati.

In secondo luogo, il Presidente Trump sta facendo campagna elettorale abbassando le tasse e promuovendo investimenti. Il numero dei disoccupati è sceso al minimo ed iniziano a farsi sentire in busta paga gli effetti della riduzione delle imposte. E, da che modo è mondo, la riduzione delle tasse è un ottimo viatico elettorale.

In terzo luogo, non ci si dimentichi che le percentuali fornite dalle prospezioni sono affette da un errore che varia dal ±3% al ±5%. Ciò significa che due valori differiscono in modo abbastanza significativo se la loro differenza è almeno due volte l’errore. Al momento attuale questa evenienza non è notata nelle prospezioni ragionevolmente non di parte. Si dovrebbe quindi concludere come l’esito finale sia ancora incerto.

In quarto luogo, si dovrebbe usare un grande discernimento nel leggere le prospezioni effettuate da mezzi chiaramente di parte. Qui a seguito riportiamo in fotocopia dal sito Real Clear Politics. Che il 56% degli Elettori disapprovi l’operato del Presidente Trump, percentuale in crescita di 17 punti percentuali, lascia davvero molto perplessi, ma molto. Né ci di può dimenticare come questa testata avesse dato Mrs Hillary Clinton vincente con il 67% dei suffragi: un errore non tollerabile.

2018-02-27__Trump__001


Cnbc. 2018-02-26. Republicans just got some good news for the 2018 midterm elections: A new poll shows them leading in the race for Congress

– A poll shows Republicans leading Democrats on the generic congressional ballot for the first time in months.

– The Democrats’ lead on generic ballots has grown smaller since last year, as voters approve more of Republicans’ handling of the economy.

– Nearly a quarter of voters remain undecided, however.

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For the first time in months, a poll shows Republicans leading Democrats in a generic congressional ballot.

The figures in the Politico/Morning Consult survey will likely give Republicans fresh hope for holding on to congressional majorities — and reinforce the strategy to promote their tax law ahead of November’s midterm elections.

Generic polls ask voters which party they are inclined to vote for rather than which candidate.

Among registered voters, 39 percent said they would back the GOP candidate in their district, according to the poll. Thirty-eight percent said they would support a Democrat, while 23 percent are undecided.

Democrats still hold the advantage across a variety of polls. An average of recent generic ballots shows Democrats with a roughly 7 percentage point lead, according to RealClearPolitics. But that edge has fallen from 13 percentage points last year.

None of the dozens of polls compiled by RealClearPolitics going back to January 2017 showed a Republican lead on the generic ballot.

The poll Wednesday showed other good news for Republicans. The 47 percent approval rating for President Donald Trump — whose dismal popularity threatens to drag on GOP candidates — matched his disapproval among voters in the survey.

The poll also showed sentiment improving for the GOP’s ability to handle the economy and jobs. It comes as Democrats have grown increasingly worried about public opinion of the GOP tax cuts improving and tried to use economic messaging to make their case.

The minority party in Congress sees opportunity in November’s election as Trump struggles to win over most of the country. Most recent polls have still found that a majority of the country disapproves of the job he is doing as president, which could hurt GOP congressional candidates linked to him.

Democrats also became more hopeful after winning a Senate election in deep-red Alabama last year, as well as some state legislative seats in areas that typically supported Republicans.

They have targeted more than 100 House seats held by Republicans this year, including many districts won by Trump. While Democrats received a boost last year from opposition to Trump, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer said this week that his party “cannot just run against” the president.

Republicans hold a 238 to 193 seat majority in the House, with four current vacancies. That means Democrats need to pick up 25 GOP seats to take over the House. According to NBC News’ count, at least 20 Republican incumbents have said they will retire this year.

Republicans hold a 51 to 49 edge in the Senate, but they have a much better chance of keeping control of that chamber. Democrats hold 26 of the 34 Senate seats on 2018 ballots. Several Democrats face tough re-election bids in states Trump won in 2016 such as Missouri, North Dakota, West Virginia, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Wisconsin, Michigan and Florida.

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