Pubblicato in: Amministrazione, Banche Centrali, Unione Europea

Italia. Potrebbe uscire dall’Unione Europea dopo le elezioni – Bloomberg

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2018-02-20.

2018-02-18__Bloomberg__001

Mr Bill Rhodes è uno dei vecchi saggi del sistema bancario americano e mondiale.

Il fatto che il suo nome sia quasi sconosciuto alla gente comune è un segno della sua potenza: non ama la pubblicità, parla poco, ascolta molto. Può proteggere la sua privacy.

«William R. “Bill” Rhodes (born August 15, 1935) is an American banker and philanthropist. Rhodes is President and CEO of William R. Rhodes Global Advisors, LLC which he founded in 2010. He is a former senior international officer and senior vice chairman of Citigroup and Citibank. He served in various senior executive positions at Citi from 1957 until his retirement from Citigroup on April 30, 2010. ….

Post his retirement in 2010, Rhodes continued to serve as senior advisor to Citi from 2010 through 2017 ….

– Rhodes established and is currently president and CEO of William R. Rhodes Global Advisors, LLC.

– Director, Private Export Funding Corporation (PEFCO)

– Senior Advisor, Oliver Wyman

– Vice Chairman, National Committee on U.S.-China Relations

– Member, Group of Thirty

– Director, Korea Society

– Current member of the Economic Club of New York and former member of the Board of Trustees

– Member, Advisory Council of the Brazilian American Chamber of Commerce

– First Vice Chairman Emeritus, Institute of International Finance

– Chairman Emeritus, Americas Society and Council of the Americas

– Life Trustee, The New York Presbyterian Hospital

– Member, Emeriti of the Watson Institute for International Studies, Brown University

– Member, Council on Foreign Relations

– Director, Foreign Policy Association

– Chairman Emeritus, Board of Trustees, Northfield Mount Hermon School

– Member of the Chairman’s Council and a Vice Chairman, Metropolitan Museum of Art Business Committee

– Chairman Emeritus, U.S.-Korea Business Council

– Member, Advisory Board of the Museum of American Finance

– Member, Board of Directors of The Volcker Alliance

– Member, European-American Chamber of Commerce New York

– Member, Chairman’s Advisory Council for The Hudson Institute» [Fonte]

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Bill Rhodes Warns of Possible Italian Exit From EU After Election – Bloomberg

«Bill Rhodes, chief executive officer of William R. Rhodes Global Advisors and author of “Banker to the World,” weighs in on the looming elections in Italy. He speaks with Bloomberg’s Vonnie Quinn on “Bloomberg Markets.”»

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How to improve on that performance will be top of the agenda at the first meeting of the International Investment Council, including such magnates as Bill Rhodes, George Soros and Frank Savage

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«Bill Rhodes Warns of Possible Italian Exit From EU After Election»

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La possibilità che l’Italia si stacchi sia dall’Unione Europea sia dall’Eurozona c’è, ed è concreta. Nel caso, sarebbe una catastrofe.

Il vuoto politico che si è determinato sia in seno all’Unione Europea, sia in una Germania un tempo egemone in Europa, sia infine in un’Italia di fatto ingovernabile potrebbe facilitare questa drastica presa di posizione dalle impredicibili conseguenze.

Troppe persone stanno vivendo questo periodo esternando visceralità non supervisionate dalla mente, tentativo inconscio di esorcizzare il drammatico quadro sociale ed economiche che si delinea fosco all’orizzonte.

Il vero dramma consiste nel fatto che alle agoniche ideologie liberal e socialiste sembrerebbe non contrapporsi una svolta metodologica verso un ragionevole empirismo economico.

Sostituire un credo ideologico con uno eguale e contrario non aiuterebbe in nulla a risolvere i problemi in atto: qualsiasi ideologia coerce le menti verso un’ideazione coatta e, quindi, avulsa dalla realtà fattuale.

Nei fatti invece sembrerebbe proprio che la stagnazione politica non costituisca humus favorevole all’abbandono di un modus pensandi che a stento riesce a superare il momento di slogan roboanti.

Sembra che le menti abbiano perso la capacità cognitiva ed il potere di revisione critica.

Italia. Sondaggio. Astensionismo e Giovani.

Italia. Elezioni. 35 collegi nel Meridione saranno decisivi. Analisi dei collegi.

Italia. Partiti promettono ciò che non hanno. Il macigno del debito.

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Ci si prepari quindi al peggio: se poi non dovesse accadere ne saremmo tutti felici.


Bloomberg. 2018-02-18. Female, Middle-Aged and Let Down by Renzi: Italy’s Swing Voters

– Almost a third of Italian electorate undecided, YouTrend says

– With hung parliament projected, the swing voters could be key

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Almost a third of Italians have yet to decide who to vote for in next month’s general election — more than enough to determine the outcome.

Their profile? Mostly women, middle-aged, without a university degree and disappointed with former Prime Minister Matteo Renzi, the leader of the ruling Democratic Party. Those are the findings of Agenzia Quorum, which did an analysis of so-called swing voters ahead of a pre-election polling blackout that’s set to begin Saturday.

“This is yet another sign that the Democratic Party is on a downward slope, and its voters feel let down by Renzi,” said Giovanni Diamanti, the managing partner of Agenzia Quorum. “But it also suggests that the game is open and the final outcome is far from decided.”

With Italians set to vote in little more than two weeks, on March 4, the latest surveys published by the main Italian newspapers also point to a large proportion of undecided voters. A poll done by Demos&Pi and printed in la Repubblica on Friday showed some 45 percent of people still unsure.

While the anti-establishment Five Star movement has risen in polls to become the leading single party, it still trails the center-right coalition led by four-time former premier Silvio Berlusconi. Neither appears set to win a majority of seats, setting the stage for a hung parliament and difficult talks over a grand coalition or national unity government. That makes swing votes potentially key to the outcome.

About 30 percent of potential voters remain undecided, according to Agenzia Quorum’s YouTrend poll of 1,000 adults on Feb. 12 and 13. About 64 percent are women, just 11 percent have a degree and the largest share abstained in previous votes. Among those who cast a ballot in the past, former backers of the Democratic Party are the most unsure. About half of those still undecided who voted in the 2014 European elections are from Renzi’s party. The margin of error was 3.1 percent.

Economists Map Out Italian Election Probabilities in Bloomberg Survey

An electoral law passed last year gives just over a third of seats in the lower house and in the Senate to first-past-the-post winners, which encourages the formation of coalitions. Five Star has traditionally opposed tying up with another party, while the Democratic Party suffered a blow after a splinter group, Free and Equal, decided to run on its own. That paved the way for a resurgent Berlusconi, who can’t serve as prime minister because of a public office ban following a tax fraud conviction.

A Bloomberg-calculated average of polls through Feb. 11 has the center-right at 37 percent of the vote, almost 10 points higher than the center-left at 28 percent and Five Star at 27 percent. 

Trending Toward Berlusconi

As the blackout nears, a projection by YouTrend based on their final poll of polls for news agency Agi shows Berlusconi’s camp taking 290 seats in the 630-member lower house and 141 seats in the 315-member Senate. The Demos&Pi poll, and a separate one by Ipsos published by Corriere della Sera on Friday, also found that none of the parties or coalitions would be able to obtain a parliamentary majority.

Compared to previous projections, centrist parties, including Berlusconi’s Forza Italia, are gaining some seats from the fringes, making a post-vote national unity government or grand coalition more likely.

“The clearest trend in recent weeks is a gain in consensus for Berlusconi,” Diamanti said.

Of the 232 first-past-the-post seats in the lower chamber, about a third are too close to call, according to YouTrend. Thirty-five of those are in the South. Winning all of those seats could give Berlusconi a majority.

That highlights the importance of voters who make up their minds at the last minute. About 55 percent of undecided voters are based in the North, and 45 percent in the Center and the South, YouTrend’s poll showed. The survey indicates that if the undecideds turn out to vote, the biggest parties — the Democratic Party, Forza Italia and Five Star — would gain the most.

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