Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Unione Europea

I ‘populisti’ verso la vittoria. I liberal iniziano a temere. – Bloomberg

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2017-12-13.

2017-12-14__Populisti__001

Cosa debba intendersi con il termine ‘populismo’ lo abbiamo già delineato.

Populismo. Cosa sia e come lo quantizzi il Populism Index (Epicentric)

Se essere ‘populisti’ significa non condividere in alcunché l’ideologia liberal e quella del socialismo ideologico, bene, allora sono in molti in Europa a gloriarsi di questo nome.

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Liberal e socialisti ideologici hanno ben donde di lagnarsi disperati.

Il 2017 è stato per loro un anno di disgrazie continue su ogni fronte.

– Il 20 gennaio 2017 si è insediato il Presidente Trump, che a novembre aveva conquistato 304 grandi elettori contro i 227 di Mrs Hillary Clinton, del partito democratico.

– Il 10 aprile 2017 il Senato Americano ha approvato la nomina del Justice Neil Gorsuch nella Suprema Corte degli Stati Uniti. ‘Gorsuch is a proponent of textualism in statutory interpretation and originalism in interpreting the U.S. Constitution, and is an advocate of natural law jurisprudence.’ Ora la Suprema Corte è a maggioranza repubblicana.

– Il 7 maggio 2017 alle elezioni presidenziali francesi il partito socialista francese è crollato dal 62% all’8%.

– Il 21 settembre 2017 Mr Macron ha conquistato 22 su 171 seggi senatoriali.

– Il 24 settembre 2017 le elezioni federali politiche sanzionavano la perdita di 153 deputati della Große Koalition: la Cdu crollava al 32.9% e l’Spd al 20.5%.

– Il 15 ottobre in Austria  Herr Kurz trionfava alle elezioni austriache con il 31.6%, e l’Fpö raggiungeva il 26.0%.

– Il 21 – 22 ottobre 2017 nella Repubblica Ceka il partito Ano 2011 conseguiva il 29.6% dei voti (78 / 200 seggi), mentre il Čssd, la socialdemocrazia, crollava dal 20.5% del 2013 al 7.3% dei voti.

– Il 5 novembre 2017 in Slovakia, alle elezioni regionali, la Smer, partito socialista del presidente Fico, ha perso il controllo di quattro delle sei regioni. Nelle elezioni politiche del 2012 aveva conseguito il 44.4% dei voti, il 28.3% in quelle del 2016, il 26.2% nelle regionali.

– Il 6 dicembre il Congresso degli Stati Uniti ha rigettato 364 – 58 la istanza democratica di impeachment al Presidente Trump. 123 deputati democratici hanno votato contro assieme ai repubblicani.

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Un preoccupatissimo Bloomberg riporta mestamente questo articolo:

How the Populist Right Is Redrawing the Map of Europe

I liberal iniziano ad avere paura. Saranno trattati per come hanno trattato.

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«If 2017 looked like the year when moderate politicians took back Europe, look again»

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«The election of centrist French President Emmanuel Macron and the reelection of German Chancellor Angela Merkel mask a rising tide of anti-immigrant and populist sentiment that is sweeping aside or weakening mainstream party politics across the continent»

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«A Bloomberg analysis of decades of election results across 22 European countries reveals that support for populist radical-right parties is higher than it’s been at any time over the past 30 years»

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«These parties won 16 percent of the overall vote on average in the most recent parliamentary election in each country, up from 11 percent a decade earlier and 5 percent in 1997»

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«While some parties evolved along the way, they are all now seen as anti-elite, nativist, and having a strong law and order focus»

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«There is a powerful shift emerging in politics around the world, and in Europe in particular»

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«These parties have combined populist, nativist, and authoritarian strains in a mix that academics say shows clear commonalities»

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«Uncontrolled immigration. National sovereignty. Globalization. Disappearing manufacturing jobs. Corrupt elites. Rising income inequality.»

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«Interestingly, neither indicator displays a particularly consistent relationship with populist radical-right vote share across all countries»

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«In some countries, such as Austria, France, and Italy, populist radical-right parties have performed up to 20 percentage points better in presidential and regional elections»

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«Merkel’s CDU/CSU in Germany has had to rethink its pro-refugee policy amid the rising popularity of the anti-immigration Alternative for Germany»

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«Anti-EU sentiment runs deep in the populist radical right: 28 of the 39 parties in Bloomberg’s analysis also show up on a list of euroskeptic parties»

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«Europe’s leaders (and the bureaucrats in Brussels) should also worry about their gains in the European Parliament»

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«In 2014 these parties collectively won 15 percent of seats, up from 10 percent in 2009 and just 3 percent in 1999»

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«The next European Parliament elections are set for 2019»

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Bloomberg. 2017-12-11. How the Populist Right Is Redrawing the Map of Europe

If 2017 looked like the year when moderate politicians took back Europe, look again. The election of centrist French President Emmanuel Macron and the reelection of German Chancellor Angela Merkel mask a rising tide of anti-immigrant and populist sentiment that is sweeping aside or weakening mainstream party politics across the continent.

A Bloomberg analysis of decades of election results across 22 European countries reveals that support for populist radical-right parties is higher than it’s been at any time over the past 30 years. These parties won 16 percent of the overall vote on average in the most recent parliamentary election in each country, up from 11 percent a decade earlier and 5 percent in 1997.

While some parties evolved along the way, they are all now seen as anti-elite, nativist, and having a strong law and order focus, as defined by academics who helped shape this analysis. The series of maps and charts below show how they maneuvered from the margins, or even from the center in some cases, to disrupt the European political landscape.

Which Parties Are Included?

There is a powerful shift emerging in politics around the world, and in Europe in particular. While there has been a rise in populism broadly, it’s the right-wing part of this movement that has redrawn politics this year—including the recent election of Andrej Babis as Czech prime minister. These parties have combined populist, nativist, and authoritarian strains in a mix that academics say shows clear commonalities.

To conduct this analysis, Bloomberg relied on a list of 39 political parties classified as populist and radical right that have at some point in their history held at least one parliamentary seat (whether nationally or in the European Parliament). The list was compiled mostly by University of Amsterdam assistant professor Matthijs Rooduijn. He used definitions set out by University of Georgia associate professor Cas Mudde in two books, published in 2000 and 2007. The list was then peer-reviewed and finalized with the help of nine other experts.

These parties generally share traits such as support for strong immigration controls, as well as anti-Europe and anti-elite feelings, yet they are far less monolithic when it comes to traditional conservative economic ideas. Data from the 2014 Chapel Hill Expert Survey, which asks researchers to rate individual parties on a range of ideological or thematic issues, bears this out, as illustrated below.

Looking at it issue by issue produces some surprising juxtapositions: The Dutch Freedom Party and the U.K. Independence Party agree on restricting immigration and being tough on crime, for instance, but are opposed on social issues (including gay rights, which the former supports) and whether the state should intervene in the economy.

What We Found About the Causes of This Surge

Uncontrolled immigration. National sovereignty. Globalization. Disappearing manufacturing jobs. Corrupt elites. Rising income inequality. These are some of the cornerstone issues for the parties in this analysis. Although detailed data on these topics are hard to come by, especially at a more local level, useful proxies for the first two pairs of issues are the foreign-born share of a region’s population and its unemployment rate.

Interestingly, neither indicator displays a particularly consistent relationship with populist radical-right vote share across all countries. There are, however, clear statistical ties with unemployment in France (which voted this year) and Sweden (set to go to the polls in 2018), as well as with the foreign-born share of the population in Italy.

Where Our Analysis Doesn’t Tell the Whole Story

The general election vote shares and parliamentary seats won by the more than 30 parties in this analysis don’t fully show the appeal of their ideas. In some countries, such as Austria, France, and Italy, populist radical-right parties have performed up to 20 percentage points better in presidential and regional elections. In others they’ve helped push more mainstream conservative parties to the right on policy or rhetoric. Thus the Tories in the most recent U.K. election adopted the banner of Brexit, while Merkel’s CDU/CSU in Germany has had to rethink its pro-refugee policy amid the rising popularity of the anti-immigration Alternative for Germany.

This shows up in the relatively widespread support for some of the extreme parties’ pet causes. Roughly 1 in 5 EU citizens said immigration is one of the two most important issues facing their country this year. Almost 2 in 5 were pessimistic about the EU’s future, and 1 in 5 felt globalization isn’t an opportunity for growth, according to the Eurobarometer’s May 2017 survey. On the national level in some countries, the response rates for some of these questions far surpassed the share of votes any local qualifying party recently received.

How Might This Affect Next Year’s Elections?

The emergence of this new and loosely cohesive party family—some of whose members would not necessarily have been recognized as following these ideologies in the past—speaks to a powerful shift in Europe’s political center of gravity and serves as an important backdrop to next year’s key elections.

– In Belgium, Vlaams Belang—also known as the Flemish Interest party—can regain some momentum in local elections heading into the 2019 general election.

– In Hungary, the ruling Fidesz party and opposition Jobbik party, both populist and radical right, collectively won 65 percent of the vote in 2014.

– In Italy, the Northern League has struggled for national relevance in the Five Star Movement’s shadow but can shine in regional Lombardy elections.

– In Sweden, the Sweden Democrats doubled their vote share in the last election.

The Future of the European Union May Be at Stake

Anti-EU sentiment runs deep in the populist radical right: 28 of the 39 parties in Bloomberg’s analysis also show up on a list of euroskeptic parties compiled by University of Sussex professor Paul Taggart with funding from the U.K. Economic and Social Research Council. Several have joined ranks to form the Europe of Nations and Freedom Group in the European Parliament, which currently counts among its members the National Front in France, the Dutch Freedom Party, Italy’s Northern League, the Freedom Party of Austria, and Vlaams Belang in Belgium.

For mainstream political parties, it’s not just about taking note of these parties’ performance at the national polls. Europe’s leaders (and the bureaucrats in Brussels) should also worry about their gains in the European Parliament, which despite its unpopularity controlled a budget of nearly €160 billion ($188 billion) this year and will have the final say on any Brexit deal. In 2014 these parties collectively won 15 percent of seats, up from 10 percent in 2009 and just 3 percent in 1999. The next European Parliament elections are set for 2019.

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