Giuseppe Sandro Mela.
«Polling in the final week of the Alabama Senate special election has been all over the place. Four polls have shown Roy Moore leading by between 4 and 9 points. One new one, from Fox News, shows Democrat Doug Jones with a 10-point lead. And another, from SurveyMonkey, just posts a range of possibilities, arguing that results will largely depend on how a pollster chooses to model turnout.
Put it all together, and RealClearPolitics’s polling average shows Moore ahead by 2.5 percentage points. That would make him the favorite — but not much of one, since polls frequently “miss” by more than that amount. For instance, RCP’s polling average underestimated Ralph Northam’s margin of victory by 5.6 points in this year’s Virginia governor’s race.
The Alabama race is even more of a muddle. Even in the most normal of times, special elections are extremely challenging to poll. And as Matt Glassman, a senior fellow at Georgetown’s Government Affairs Institute, has pointed out, very little about this election is normal.»
Sondaggi così discrepanti, ben oltre l’errore di campionamento, non consentono di trarre conclusioni ragionevoli.
Mercoledì avremo i risultati usciti dalle urne, e potremo anche valutare l’attendibilità delle società di prospezioni.