Giuseppa Sandro Mela.
Il 24 settembre la Germania procederà alle elezioni politiche federali.
Sembrerebbe essere molto probabile che Frau Merkel possa conseguire la maggioranza relativa dei suffragi, potendosi così riproporre per un nuovo cancellierato.
Ma altrettanto probabile sembrerebbe essere la necessità di dover formare una coalizione di governo, e qui vengono i dolori.
Se una coalizione con Linke oppure con AfD sembrerebbero essere improponibili politicamente, una riedizione della Große Koalition sembrerebbe difficile, anche perché dovrebbe essere votata dalla base socialdemocratica, che nei sondaggi la avversa a larga maggioranza.
L’Fdp, Free Democrats, sembrerebbe essere l’unica possibilità reale, ma nel caso sarebbe un connubio contro natura.
Il programma elettorale dell’Fdp è quasi l’opposto di quello della Union, ossia della Cdu e della Csu.
Diamo atto ad Herr Lindner, capo della Fdp, di essere l’unico politico tedesco che al momento almeno stia parlando di politica estera.
Herr Lindner ha come programma politico in campo estero pochi elementi, ma molto chairi:
«Germany’s Free Democrats …. rejected expanding the euro area»
«suggested that Russia be readmitted to the Group of Seven»
«swipe at Merkel over her handling of Russian President Vladimir Putin»
«What’s the point to excluding Russia from the G-8 so the seven leaders then talk among themselves about how evil the eighth one is?»
«It makes more sense to talk with the eighth one about what you can do to return to cooperation»
«Merkel faced down an FDP revolt over sovereign bailouts during that period»
«We will have to talk about how we secure the future of the currency union …. negative interest rates in the euro area are the opposite of “solid finances”»
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Vedremo cosa ci riserveranno queste elezioni ma, soprattutto, qual razza di coalizione potrà venir fuori.
Molto verosimilmente si potrebbe assistere a cambi di rotta a 180 gradi.
Ed i paesi europei mediterranei allora potrebbero vedere non solo i sorci verdi, ma anche quelli a scacchi bianchi e blue. “Solid finance” significherebbe per lo la fine della festa: il rientro dai debiti.
→ Bloomberg. 2017-09-17. Merkel’s Potential Ally Floats Russian G-7 Return Ahead of Vote
– German parties vie for third place with week left in campaign
– Free Democrats stake out positions on euro area, Putin
Germany’s Free Democrats, a potential coalition partner for Chancellor Angela Merkel, rejected expanding the euro area and suggested that Russia be readmitted to the Group of Seven as parties jockey for position ahead of next Sunday’s national election.
With polls showing the chancellor’s Christian Democrat-led bloc with a lead and Martin Schulz’s Social Democratic Party second, the race for third place will help determine the makeup of the new government if Merkel wins a fourth term on Sept. 24. Free Democratic Party head Christian Lindner sought to make his mark on Sunday in part with a swipe at Merkel over her handling of Russian President Vladimir Putin.
“What’s the point to excluding Russia from the G-8 so the seven leaders then talk among themselves about how evil the eighth one is?” he said in a speech to a party convention in Berlin. “It makes more sense to talk with the eighth one about what you can do to return to cooperation.”
Russia, with Merkel’s support, was suspended from the G-8 club of advanced economies in 2014 for its annexation of Crimea from Ukraine. Merkel says she’s maintaining a channel of communication with Putin even while upholding economic sanctions on Russia, penalties that Lindner said he wouldn’t lift “without something in return” from Putin.
Lindner, 38, signaled a willingness to challenge other euro-area countries and European Central Bank policies if his party rejoined Merkel as junior coalition partner, a role it had during her second term from 2009 to 2013. When Europe’s debt crisis spread from Greece, Merkel faced down an FDP revolt over sovereign bailouts during that period.
“We will have to talk about how we secure the future of the currency union,” Lindner told delegates, saying negative interest rates in the euro area are the opposite of “solid finances.” What’s needed for “market stability” is respect for euro-area rules and member countries’ taking responsibility for their finances, he said.
European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker’s call for possible financial assistance to help more countries join the euro “is a mystery to me” and “totally removed from what’s really needed,” Lindner said.
With less than a week before the vote, polls suggest the contest for third place is too close to call. Support for the anti-immigration Alternative for Germany party is 11 percent, with the anti-capitalist Left at 10 percent, the FDP at 9 percent and the Greens at 8 percent, according to an Emnid poll for Bild am Sonntag newspaper published Sunday.
Backing for Merkel’s bloc declined 1 point to 36 percent, the lowest since May in the Emnid survey, and the SPD declined 2 points to 22 percent, its lowest since January. No margin of error was given for the Sept. 7 to Sept. 13 poll of 1,888 people.
FDP delegates applauded when Lindner said part of his mission is to deny Alternative for Germany a third-place finish. The risk is that the populist party, known as the AfD, would be the main opposition group if Merkel and the Social Democrats extended their coalition, which has governed for the past four years, he said.
“We want take third place for the sake of political culture” and Germany’s “democratic comity,” Lindner said.