Pubblicato in: Demografia, Putin, Russia

Russia e la mutazione generazionale in Occidente.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2017-08-25

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Il Pew Research Center è uno dei pochi centri americani di ricerche economiche e sociali ragionevolmente obiettivo: gliene diamo atto con moto piacere.

Recentemente ha rilasciato lo studio

Publics Worldwide Unfavorable Toward Putin, Russia

Il sottotitolo è tuttavia ancor più significativo del titolo stesso:

«But few see Russian power and influence as a major threat»

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Lo studio è lungo e complesso, ricco di grafici ed istogramma, motivo per cui non lo riportiamo, anche se suggeriremmo fortemente di leggerlo con cura.

«Around the world, few people trust Russian President Vladimir Putin to do the right thing when it comes to international affairs. A global median of roughly one-in-four (26%) say they have confidence in the Russian leader. Doubts about Putin’s handling of foreign policy, however, do not necessarily coincide with perceptions of Russia as a security risk. Across 37 countries, a median of 31% describe Russia’s power and influence as a major threat to their country – identical to the median percentage who say the same about China, and similar to the median share (35%) that sees America’s power and influence as a large threat.»

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«On balance, Russia’s international image is more negative than positive. Critical opinions of Russia are particularly widespread in the United States and Europe, while views are more mixed in the Asia-Pacific, the Middle East, sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America. In only three countries surveyed do majorities express a favorable opinion of Russia: Vietnam (83%), Greece (64%) and the Philippines (55%).

Many people doubt the Russian government’s commitment to civil liberties. Globally, a median of 30% say Russia respects the rights of its citizens, compared with 46% who disagree and 17% who do not offer an opinion. Skepticism about the protection of personal freedoms in Russia is widespread in the U.S. and Europe. Views are mixed across the Asia-Pacific, the Middle East and Latin America, while publics in sub-Saharan Africa are more convinced than not that the Russian government safeguards individual liberties at home.

These are among the major findings from a new Pew Research Center survey conducted among 40,951 respondents in 37 countries outside of Russia from Feb. 16 to May 8, 2017.»

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«Europeans are particularly harsh in their assessment of Putin, with a median in Europe of 78% expressing a lack of confidence in the leader. In the U.S. and Canada, few are confident in Putin’s global leadership, with more than three times as many people disliking Putin as liking him.

In a handful of nations (Vietnam, the Philippines, Tanzania and Greece), half or more are positive on Putin’s international performance. In other nations, many do not express any view of him: Roughly one-third or more in India, Indonesia, Ghana, Senegal, South Africa and Argentina do not share an opinion on the Russian leader.»

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«Though Putin and Russia receive low ratings across much of the world, few see Russian power and influence as a major threat to their nation. Russia is seen as far less threatening than other issues such as the Islamic State militant group (ISIS) and climate change in every nation surveyed except for Poland and Jordan. A global median of 31% say that Russian power poses a major threat to their nation, compared with 62% for ISIS, 61% for climate change and 51% for cyberattacks from other countries and for the condition of the global economy. In fact, among the eight threats tested, Russia’s power and influence is tied with that of China for last place (median of 31%).»

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«Generally, the Russian government is not seen as respecting the personal freedoms of its people. Across the 37 nations surveyed, a median of only 30% believe that Russia adheres to this tenet of democracy; that is lower than those who believe the same of France (60%, excluding France’s figures) and the U.S. (54%, excluding U.S. figures) but higher than for China (25%). …. »

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«In the Middle East and the Asia-Pacific, views vary among the countries polled. Majorities in Tunisia, Lebanon, Vietnam and the Philippines think Russia respects civil liberties, while publics elsewhere in these regions are split on the issue.»

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Non stupisce minimamente che molti paesi, specie quelli incardinati nella Nato, possano vedere nella Russia ed in Mr Putin un potenziale avversario: la Russia è a tutti gli effetti una superpotenza, e come tale è percepita.

Né sarebbe logico che Mr Putin facesse gli interessi dell’Occidente a discapito della Russia, la sua Patria.

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Tuttavia l’aspetto interessante, e che depone a favore della serietà dei ricercatori del Pew Center, è la seguente tabella.

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«Across many nations, older people are significantly less likely to view Russia favorably than their younger counterparts – and in no nation are younger people significantly more critical of Russia than the older generation. In 12 nations, those ages 50 and older hold much more negative views of Russia than those 18 to 29. The generation gap is most notable in Japan and Brazil (both reveal a 37-point generational gap on favorability of Russia), Australia (24 points) and South Korea (22 points). In 11 other nations, anywhere from 40% to nearly 60% of those 50 and older offer no opinion on Russia.

Men also tend to favor Russia more than women: In seven nations, the share of men who feel warmly about Russia is anywhere from 7 to 17 points higher than the share of women who feel the same way. This gender gap is most pronounced in France (17-point gap) and Germany (14 points).

The relationship between education level and views of Russia varies by region. In France, the U.S. and Sweden, those with lower levels of education are significantly more likely to feel favorably toward Russia. However, in Tunisia and Turkey, those with higher levels of education are more likely to feel favorably toward Russia.»

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In tutte le nazioni riportate i giovani (18-29) sono costantemente più favorevoli a Russia e Mr Putin rispetto alla classe anziana (50+). Queste differenze sono impressionanti.

Giappone +37, Brasile +37, Australia +24, Regno Unito +21, Germania +17, Stati Uniti +16.

Due sono le conseguenze.

Le persone anziane hanno una probabilità di decesso decisamente maggiore di quelle giovani. Con un calcolo approssimato a ±5, tra otto – dieci anni queste nazioni diventeranno favorevoli alla Russia ed a Mr Putin, od a chi lo abbia sostituito.

Negli Stati Uniti, altra superpotenza mondiale, il 40% dei giovani non vede nella Russia un pericolo contro il 25% degli anziani. Questo dato corrobora quello della stratificazione del voto presidenziale per classi di età: i giovani sono tendenzialmente repubblicani e gli anziani liberal democratici. Uno squilibrio destinato ad accentuarsi ed a pesare alle prossime elezioni.

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