Giuseppe Sandro Mela.
«A pensar male si fa peccato, ma spesso ci si azzecca».
Profonda frase del grande Andreotti.
Frau Merkel non è la Germania.
La Germania non è l’Unione Europea.
L’Unione Europea non è la Banca Centrale Europea.
La Banca Centrale Europea sembrerebbe non mettercela mica tutta per tenere basse le quotazioni dell’euro.
Si constata come il tre marzo il rapporto Eur/Usd valesse 1.05 mentre il 28 luglio valeva 1.1751. In cinque mesi questo rapporto ha subito sostanziali variazioni e questo trend sembrerebbe dover durare nel tempo. Sotto la condizione che non varino le situazioni al contorno, se questo andamento si riconfermasse, a fine anno il rapporto Eur/Usd potrebbe toccare il valore di 1.30.
Sarebbe ben difficile non vedere dietro a codesta manovra la sapiente mano della Yellen, che è riuscita a deprezzare il dollaro pur lasciando aumentare i tassi di interesse. Così come sarebbe ben difficile non vedere dietro questa manovra un preciso piano politico americano. Volente o nolente, il quadro dirigenziale europeo alla fine sarà obbligato a razionalizzare che con gli Stati Uniti deve collaborare, non fare la fronda.
L’Eurozona non è forte a sufficienza da poter svolgere una politica monetaria indipendente. Più in generale, le sue ambizioni di indipendenza ed opposizione agli Stati Uniti sono mere utopie. Mr Juncker e Frau Merkel alla fine saranno obbligati dai fatti a comprendere come sia impossibile risolvere i problemi senza tener conto del contesto generale.
«Germany, the eurozone’s largest economy, wants to see a tighter policy, which is a better fit for the robust economy. Clearly however, the ECB under Draghi’s stewardship has no intentions of altering current policy until inflation moves closer to the ECB’s target of 2 percent» [Fonte]
«At the same time, the euro, which has significantly strengthened recently on expectations of the fast curtailment of the QE program in the Eurozone, has a negative impact on inflation expectations. This will make it more difficult for the ECB to make decisions regarding monetary policy. The ECB has repeatedly stressed that to begin the reduction of the program to stimulate the economy of the Eurozone, stable signals of inflation growth in the region are needed. The rate of price growth in the Eurozone last month slowed to 1.3% per annum, being significantly below the target level of the ECB, which is just under 2%. And, according to the leaders of the ECB, the economy of the Eurozone still needs “very significant” incentive measures because of low inflation» [Fonte]
«According to the OECD’s calculations, fair value for EUR/USD as defined by Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) currently lies at 1.34. Not all methods suggest that fair value is quite so high. However, the Bloomberg calculated PPPs based on CPI inflation, PPI inflation and the Big Mac method all suggest that EUR/USD is currently between 0.02% and 18.5% undervalued» [Fonte]
«To clarify why Germany has not recorded an upswing in GDP growth recently despite last year’s marked depreciation of the euro against most other world currencies, which – according to economic intuition – should have stimulated the export-oriented German economy.»
«According to economic intuition», una valuta deprezzata dovrebbe favorire le esportazioni. Al contrario, una valuta forte dovrebbe deprimere le esportazioni.
A quanto potrebbe sembrare, la Bundeskanzlerin Frau Merkel non è poi così forte da poter imporre a tutti gli altri, a tutto il mondo, la condivisione della sua scala valoriale e dei suoi desiderata.
→ Bloomberg. 2017-07-28. Dollar Drops for Third Week as Data Underscore Fed Dilemma
– Greenback falls as GDP, ECI miss ests., health care shelved
– Swiss franc and yen extend declines on policy comparisons
The dollar was headed for a third straight week of losses as data reinforcing the notion that U.S. inflation pressures are subdued kept the greenback close to a 14-month low.
U.S. economic growth and the employment cost index both missed estimates, while inflation expectations remained muted as the University of Michigan consumer sentiment reading improved in July. The dollar fell further after North Korea launched an intercontinental ballistic missile, extending losses seen after the GDP data and after Republican efforts to repeal Obamacare failed.
– The Bloomberg dollar index is lower by ~0.3% for the day amid month-end selling pressure and is on track for a weekly decline of a similar magnitude. The dollar is trading close to levels from early May 2016. Flows are muted after a hectic week that saw the euro gain about 0.7% vs the greenback and more than 3% vs the Swiss franc
– Investors continue to adjust positions amid shifting expectations for monetary-policy trajectories among the major central banks. Data Friday showed robust economic growth in some European economies and stronger inflation pressure in Germany. The reports underscored ECB President Draghi’s assertion that the regional economy is on a firm footing with reduced downside risk that should enable policy makers to begin discussions soon on tapering asset purchases
– In the U.S., the data amplified the Fed’s decision Wednesday to acknowledge the persistence of subdued inflation pressures, even as employment continues to climb. While the Fed has raised rates twice this year, markets assign less than 50% odds of a third hike for 2017. In contrast, both the SNB and the BOJ have signaled that their policies will remain on hold for the foreseeable future, the SNB also emphasizing that its currency remains overvalued. As a result, the Swiss franc tumbled vs its G-10 peers on the week; the yen dropped by a smaller amount vs most while gaining against the CHF and the USD
– In Friday trading, EUR/USD was trading ~1.1748 vs a high of 1.1764. It was still below the more-than-two-year peak at 1.1777 reached Thursday that offers nearby technical resistance
– USD/JPY was trading ~110.79 after dropping to a fresh low for the day at 110.67 following the North Korea missile launch. The pair tested technical support in the zone below 110.80 that cushioned during the week as the dollar fell with Treasury yields. The 233-DMA at 110.78 also cushioned the pair in recent sessions and may have added to support Friday, one trader said
– Adding to the greenback’s woes, USD/CAD saw its biggest drop in two weeks to a low of 1.2420, after oil gained and Canadian GDP beat all estimates. The data reinforced expectations that the Bank of Canada will hike again in October after raising rates 25bps on July 12
– The Swiss franc extended its weekly drop versus the euro and the dollar, with EUR/CHF rising above 1.1400 in late afternoon. Traders speculate that some M&A-related CHF selling may have exacerbated the drop in the Swiss currency in recent sessions