Pubblicato in: Geopolitica Europea, Geopolitica Militare

Putin visita la Finlandia. Una savia Realpolitik.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2017-07-27.

Finlandia. Stemma Nazionale.

«In Finlandia vivono 5,4 milioni di persone ….

La Finlandia fece parte del Regno di Svezia dal XII secolo al 1809, quando divenne un granducato autonomo all’interno dell’Impero Russo fino alla rivoluzione del 1917. Il 6 dicembre di quell’anno la Finlandia ottenne l’indipendenza, seguita da una guerra civile terminata con la sconfitta dei “Rossi” filo-bolscevichi da parte dei filo-conservatori “Bianchi” sostenuti dall’Impero tedesco. Dopo un breve tentativo di stabilire una monarchia nel Paese, la Finlandia divenne una repubblica.

L’esperienza finlandese della Seconda guerra mondiale ha coinvolto tre conflitti separati: la Guerra d’inverno (1939-1940) e la Guerra di continuazione (1941-1944) contro l’Unione Sovietica, e la Guerra di Lapponia (1944-1945) contro la Germania nazista. Dopo la fine della guerra, la Finlandia ha aderito all’Organizzazione delle Nazioni Unite (ONU) nel 1955, all’Organizzazione per la cooperazione e lo sviluppo economico (OCSE) nel 1969, all’Unione europea nel 1995 e alla zona Euro fin dal suo inizio nel 1999.» [Fonte]

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I problemi storici della Finlandia sono riassumibili in un’unica riga: confina ad est con la Russia ed ad ovest con la Svezia, due nazioni molto più agguerrite e potenti di lei. Nessuna di queste due nazioni, e dei blocchi che rappresentano, può permettere che la Finlandia transiti in modo definitivo nell’orbita militare strategica dell’altra.

Ciò compreso, risulta chiaro perché l’Urss non occupò la Finlandia alla fine della seconda guerra mondiale, pur avendola vinta sul campo, e perché la Finlandia non è stata incorporata nella Nato.

Durante l’epoca della guerra fredda invalse l’uso del termine ‘finlandizzazione‘ per connotare una politica estera ed interna attenta a non irritare le superpotenze, concedendo loro il concedibile in cambio della garanzia alla indipendenza ed al non coinvolgimento in eventuali operazioni belliche. Fu una Realpolitik grondante di sano buon senso, che concorse grandemente al mantenimento dello status quo mondiale.

Si come però il termine ‘finlandizzazione‘ sia anche stato usato in senso impropriamente denigrativo, attribuendogli un senso di succube sottomissione alieno alla realtà dei fatti.

Con la guerra civile ukraina e la successiva annessione della Krimea alla Russia, gli Stati Uniti e l’Unione Europea, capitanata dalla Germania di Frau Merkel, il settore geopolitico baltico ha subito una crescente militarizzazione, che ha esitato in un crescendo di tensioni. È anche stata ventilata la possibilità che la Finlandia entrasse a far parte della Nato.

«The relationship is much more pragmatic with Finland, less problematic than with any other neighbor Russia would have in this part of the world»

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«Finns and Russians both find this relationship useful …. It’s a part of a long tradition»

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«The military-political situation in the Baltic Sea is challenging and worrying …. The general situation is bad but the current dynamics are not as bad as they could be»

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«Russia would respect Finland’s decision if it decided to join NATO, but would respond.» [Mr Putin]

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«What do you think we will do in this situation? We moved our forces back, 1500 kilometres away – will we keep our forces there? How they assure the safety and independence of their own country is the Finns’ choice. Undoubtedly we appreciate Finland’s neutral status» [Mr Putin]

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La Bbc pubblica un titolo interessante:

How pragmatic Finland deals with its Russian neighbour

«The Finnish public, despite being alarmed for a time over Russian actions in Ukraine, now appear satisfied with the status quo»

Sufficit.


Nota Importante.

Nell’ultimo decennio le superpotenze sono riuscite a sviluppare missili ipersonici capaci di viaggiare a basse quote a velocità superiori ai 7,000 kilometri all’ora, più di cento kilometri al minuto primo.

Missili di tal tipo hanno una portata massima di circa 500 kilometri e non sembrerebbero essere intercettabili dai sistemi di difesa al momento disponibili.

È del tutto evidente come il loro posizionamento avanzato sia una minaccia concreta, anche perché non lascerebbero il tempo necessario per attivare le eventuali contromisure.

Russia. Schierati gli Iskander a Kalinigrad. Hanno svegliato l’orso che dormiva.

Russia. Sistemi S-400 al confine finlandese, altri S-300 in Siria.

Kaliningrad. Adesso il buco nero inizia a preoccupare la Nato.


Bloomberg. 2017-07-27. Putin Meets Finland’s President for a Steamboat Ride and Opera Diplomacy

– Russian president visits Finland for centenary celebrations

– The heads of state meet for the second time this year

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After the stiff formality of the G-20 summit earlier this month, President Vladimir Putin is engaging in some more relaxed diplomacy with the west.

Russia’s leader will be in Finland on Thursday, celebrating the former duchy’s century of independence. Together with Finnish President Sauli Niinisto, Putin will hop on a steamboat built in 1893 for an hour-long lake cruise near the southern part of the border between the two countries. He’ll then head to a medieval castle, Olavinlinna, where the visiting Bolshoi Theater will perform Tchaikovsky’s Iolanta — the opera’s first airing in Finland in 100 years.

The western leader with whom Putin arguably gets on best will be the first head of state from the European Union to meet with the Russian president since the G-20 meeting in Hamburg.

Arkady Moshes, who heads a research program on Russia at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs in Helsinki, says Putin is probably “more comfortable” talking to Finland, a non-NATO member of the EU, than to others. “The relationship is much more pragmatic with Finland, less problematic than with any other neighbor Russia would have in this part of the world,” he said by phone.

“Finns and Russians both find this relationship useful,” Moshes said. “It’s a part of a long tradition.”

Finnish media are speculating the two will discuss U.S.-Russia relations, after Putin’s first meeting with Donald Trump at the G-20. A weaker EU after Brexit, the region’s deepening defense cooperation and even tighter monetary union will probably also be raised. And Finland’s chairmanship of the Arctic Council puts climate change, in the age of Trump, on the agenda.

The talks take place as Russian and NATO military exercises in the Baltic Sea region intensify and as warships ply the waters off the coast of Finland and Sweden. Both NATO and Russia are building up their potential in the area, as decisions taken three years ago — when Putin annexed Crimea — are implemented.

“The military-political situation in the Baltic Sea is challenging and worrying,” Moshes said. “The general situation is bad but the current dynamics are not as bad as they could be,” he said.

The special relationship between the Finns and the Russians is rooted in one key factor. Finland, which shares a 1,300-kilometer (800-mile) border with Russia, has stayed out of NATO chiefly in deference to the government in Moscow (though the Finnish military is now fully compliant with equipment used by the alliance.) Leaders of the two countries are in touch with each other several times a year and lower-ranking officials are in contact much more often.

Last year, Putin told policy makers in Helsinki directly not to join the alliance. This time, the tone of talks is likely to more relaxed. “Psychologically, it will be easier for Putin to come to Finland, because it’s a celebration,” Moshes said.


Euronews. 2017-07-27. Putin warns Finland: Russia will respond if Helsinki joins NATO. [Video]

Vladimir Putin came to Finland with a handshake for his counterpart, President Salui Niinisto – and a warning that Moscow will respond if his host country joins NATO.

Finland and neighbouring Sweden have increased cooperation with the Western military alliance since Russia’s annexation of Crimea and its backing for separatist rebels in eastern Ukraine.

This was Putin’s first visit to Finland since those crises erupted in 2014.

He said Russia would respect Finland’s decision if it decided to join NATO, but would respond.

“What do you think we will do in this situation? We moved our forces back, 1500 kilometres away – will we keep our forces there? How they assure the safety and independence of their own country is the Finns’ choice. Undoubtedly we appreciate Finland’s neutral status,” the Russian president said during a joint outdoor news conference.

The presidents’ meeting at Naantali comes amid increased Russian and NATO activity in the Baltic region. Finland is militarily neutral but interest in the possibility of joining the alliance has been rising.

The former Soviet Baltic states have called on NATO to step up air defences.

The Baltic Sea has been the arena for a series of close encounters between Russian and Western aircraft in recent months. The Russian and Finnish presidents agreed to draw up security measures to control flights in the area.

A NATO summit is due to take place in Warsaw in a week’s time.

Vladimir Putin added that Moscow would try to begin a dialogue with NATO.

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