Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo

America. Mr Trump inaugura l’era del G1.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2017-05-28.

 ITALY-G7-SUMMIT

«There is a new fault line within the G7.

An informal G6 (Canada, Japan, the UK, France, Germany, Italy) faces an informal G1: the US.»

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Cerchiamo di ragionare, nel limiti del possibile.

«Group of Seven (G7) most industrialized nations»

Ragionando sul pil nominale, i paesi afferenti il G7 rendono conto di 35,446,752 su 75,278,049 milioni di pil, ossia il 47.078% di quello mondiale. È una grande cifra, ovviamente, ma il G7 vale un po’ meno della metà del mondo.

L’Unione Europea, con 16,408,364 milioni rappresenta il 21.797% del pil mondiale.

Cina ed India dovrebbero far parte del G7, scalzando Italia e Canada.

Sarebbe davvero impensabile che si possano prendere decisioni di portata globale senza che Cina ed India, almeno, siano presenti al tavolo delle negoziazioni. Ma altrettanto impensabile sarebbe vedere gli Stati Uniti al traino dell’Europa.

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La riunione del G7 era stata preceduta da quella del Summit Nato.

Il suo inizio è tutto un programma, molto ben descritto da un articolo su Time.

Donald Trump’s Awkward Moments at the NATO Summit, Analyzed by a Body Language Expert

Mr Macron ha cercato di snobbare platealmente la stretta di mano di Mr Trump.

«Footage showed the newly elected French President walking up a red carpet towards a group of NATO leaders then swerving at the last second to greet Merkel instead of Trump, leaving the U.S. president looking awkward with his hands hovering over his pockets.»

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«Right after Macron’s swerve, Trump and the French leader shared a painful-looking handshake that just went on… and on.»

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«“What Trump is doing here is showing Macron who’s boss. It’s another aggressive move by Trump; he’s pulling Macron towards his own face and he’s basically saying ‘you will come to me, whether you like it or not.’ You can see Macron trying to get away from the situation – he puts his arms on Trump to stop him pulling him inwards. This handshake makes sense when you see the previous video. Trump’s done this because of what Macron’s just done. It’s as though he’s saying ‘Do you know who I am? You will not be doing that again.'”»

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Ma al Summit con Merkel, May e Macron Mr Trump li ha brasati ancor prima che potessero fiatare.

«Nato members must finally contribute their fair share and meet their financial obligations …. Twenty-three of the 28 member nations are still not paying what they should be paying and what they are supposed to be paying for their defence. This is not fair to the people and taxpayers of the United States …. The Nato of the future must include a great focus on terrorism and immigration»

Ma le parole che contano sono quelle non riportate dalla stampa.

Più o meno sarebbero queste, magari dette in tono più brusco:

«L’America garantisce la difesa atomica degli stati occidentali, ma solo di quelli che pagano regolarmente ed obbediscono».

Se Mrs May è uscita tutta pimpante e sorridente, Frau Merkel e Mr Macron sembravano essere andati ad assistere al proprio funerale. Parevano due gatti lavati in lavatrice.

Senza una copertura atomica di fatto, i russi potrebbero tranquillamente arrivare a Lisbona in poche settimane, più per problemi logistici che per difficoltà militari.

In sintesi, per la Francia e per la Germania è suonato un gran brutto campanaccio. Basti solo rileggerre con serena calma quanto hanno sottoscritto.

«I leader del G7 “riaffermano il diritto sovrano degli Stati, individualmente e collettivamente, a controllare i loro confini e a stabilire politiche nel loro interesse nazionale e per la sicurezza nazionale”.».

Adesso si vuol vedere Frau Merkel cosa possa dire ad Ungheria, Polonia, Repubblica Ceka ed Austria.

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A Taormina Mr Macron aveva la cresta abbassata e Frau Merkel se ne è stata zitta e buona, senza nemmeno tenere la consueta conferenza stampa.

In modo plateale Mr Trump non ha messo le cuffie quando ci sono stati interventi tenuti in lingue differenti dall’inglese. In realtà degli interventi altrui non gliene importava più di tanto. Proprio nulla ed anche meno di nulla.

Il risultato di questo G7 è magistralmente riassunto dal titolo di Bloomberg:

Trump Goes His Own Way as G-7 Cobbles Together an Awkward Truce

Mr Trump ha stravinto: ha fondato il G1.

«U.S. President Donald Trump showed his determination to break the global mold as he refused to follow the Group of Seven line on climate change and forced a more skeptical approach to free trade»

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«A summit of G-7 leaders in Sicily wrapped up on Saturday with a fragile truce on the two most contentious topics on the table. The U.S. pushed back on worldwide efforts to curb global warming that Trump’s predecessor had signed up to and won a reference in the final statement on the need for trade to be “free, fair and mutually beneficial.”»

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«There is a new fault line within the G7. An informal G6 (Canada, Japan, the UK, France, Germany, Italy) faces an informal G1 – the US.»

Non si sarebbe potuto pretendere che Frau Merkel, Mr Macron e Mr Abe si suicidassero, anche se sarebbe stato un vantaggio per tutto il mondo.

«Here we have the situation that six members, or even seven if you want to add the EU, stand against one»

Già: ma quell’uno è quello che conta: ‘clima‘ ed accordi globali sul commercio sono defunti. Che poi Mr Trump ne salvi qualche parte, secondo convenienza, è un altro paio di maniche. Mr Macron e Frau Merkel se ne balocchino pure, ma se ne guardino bene dall’inteferire con gli interessi americani. Ora gli Stati Uniti hanno un presidente che trasuda testosterone da ogni poro.

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Patetico ma anche parzialmente veritiero il titolo della Bbc:

G7 talks: Trump isolated over Paris climate change deal

«German Chancellor Angela Merkel said the discussion on climate change had been “very unsatisfactory”, adding “we have a situation of six against one”»

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«There is a new fault line within the G7. An informal G6 (Canada, Japan, the UK, France, Germany, Italy) faces an informal G1 – the US»

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Handelsblatt, il giornale ufficioso degli industriali tedeschi, prende atto della nuova situazione: è solo Realpolitik.

Concludiamo.

– Senza forza armate in essere ed efficienti è impossibile fare politica estera: non si conta nulla.

– Mr Macron e Frau Merkel hanno fatto per molto tempi i galletti ed il cadetto francese di Amiens ha fatto le sue spacconate. Ma se ne sono tornati a casa a testa bassa, con le pive nel sacco. Mr Macron ha pagato ben caro lo sgarro che ha fatto.

– L’epoca dei bulli di periferia assunti al governo è terminata, così come è terminata l’era in cui ci si era illusi di poter vivere di rendita, magari sui debiti.


Handelsblatt. 2017-05-27. Trump-Vexed European Leaders Meet Trump, Again

Hopes fade that France, Germany, Italy and the UK can use the G7 leaders‘ meeting to forge a joint position in support of free trade and climate protection.

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The leaders of France, Germany, Italy and the UK arrived in Sicily on Friday for a summit of the Group of Seven (G7) most industrialized nations following jarring encounters with US President Donald Trump in Brussels. After Mr. Trump on Thursday lectured European members of NATO about his view that they do not contribute “their fair share” to the defense alliance, signs were that Europeans’ low expectations for the G7 Summit would be met.

“The important thing is we’re talking to each other,” was the dictum of one of Chancellor Angela Merkel’s advisers in the run up to the G7 leaders meeting in the pretty seaside town of Taormina. Particularly dear to Ms. Merkel are the issues free trade and climate protection. But whether either would make it into the much-eyed final communiqué on Saturday remained an open question. “We have to see what we can resolve and get done this year.”

A similar level of unanimity on free trade and climate protection would, it seems, be very surprising.

After their experience on Thursday, European leaders now in Sicily would be forgiven if they were even more reserved than that. In Brussels, signs abounded of a US president brusquely throwing his weight around – even a long, white-knuckled handshake between Mr. Trump and French President Emmanuel Macron was seen by some as a test of strength between the still newish US president and the incoming leader of a country the US once dubbed “old Europe.”

Mr. Trump’s concern about the US trade deficit and his much-stated wish to levy a “border tax” on imports seemed alive and kicking in Brussels. According to news site Spiegel Online, the US President on Thursday complained to EU Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker and EU Council President Donald Tusk about Germany’s hefty trade surplus and the “millions of cars” German automakers sell each year in the United States.

The atmosphere between European G7 members and the US was burdened further by apparent US leaks about the British police investigation following Tuesday’s suicide bombing in Manchester. With UK security experts up in arms about US media getting hold of information collected by UK police, UK Prime Minister Theresa May reportedly raised British concerns with Mr. Trump, reminding him of the need for safe information exchange.

The Manchester bombing is expected to render a G7 statement about terrorism – a “strong signal,” officials said, sent by the free societies of the Western World that they are united against the terrorists behind the self-styled Islamic State in Syria (ISIS). But a similar level of unanimity on free trade and climate protection would, it seems, be very surprising. Mr. Trump railed against both in his election campaign and his administration has yet to agree a final line.

As a result, German officials expected a less than full-throated communiqué reference to trade – akin to the common line agreed by G7 finance ministers earlier this month, pledging “to strengthen the contribution of trade in our economies.” Officials declined to make any predictions about even the most slender of joint positions on climate protection. “The climate issue will very much depend on how talks [in Taormina] develop,” one said.

For Ms. Merkel, the summit carries additional significance as the next big bash of world leaders will take place on her own turf. In six weeks, leaders of the broader Group of 20 (G20) bloc of leading economies will come together in the northern German city of in Hamburg. The key topics – climate change and trade – will be the same then as they are now. Better to start making some progress this weekend, then.

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