Giuseppe Sandro Mela.
Il pil cinese è riportato essere aumentato del +6.9% nel corso del primo trimestre.
Sono in molti che valutano con sospetto i dai forniti dalla Cina sul pil, ritenendoli poco affidabili.
«Plenty of economists think that GDP is a massively flawed form of measuring the health of any economy but in this country it is even worse.
There is a significant proportion of China watchers who don’t believe the GDP figures are real at all.
For example, in 2016, the country’s (year on year) GDP was exactly 6.7% for three quarters in a row.
While this seems numerically unlikely, I suppose it is possible that this could happen.
Without solid, reliable figures this remains a debate with wide-ranging, conflicting views.
Mind you, even if at worse China’s real GDP is around 4% at present, there are plenty of national governments which wouldn’t mind a taste of those numbers.» [Fonte]
Questi giudizi sembrerebbero essere guidati più da criteri politici che da quelli econometrici.
Molti occidentali guardano infatti la realtà cinese con un misto di ammirazione ed invidia, unita da una scarsa capacità di comprensione del fenomeno cinese, non riconducibile ai canoni occidentali.
A giudizio di molti la Cina non sarebbe “democratica“, fattore da loro ritenuto essere essenziale alla crescita. Resta loro difficile comprendere come la “democrazia” intesa come suffragio universale sia del tutto aliena alla mentalità cinese. Così come il fallimento della così detta Rivolta degli Ombrelli non è stata percepita come è stata invece percepita dai cinesi: una ingerenza di potenze ed organizzazioni estere negli affari interni della Cina.
Noi non siamo né pro né contro le “interpretazioni” del pil cinese: le riteniamo essere diatribe politiche, ed anche inappropriate.
Constatiamo invece altri dati, ad esempio:
«The trade of goods and services between US and China amounted to an estimated $659bn (£534bn) in 2015, with the US trade deficit with China totalling $336bn.» [Fonte]
Non si arriva a numeri del genere con pil striminziti.
→ Bbc. 2017-04-17. China’s first quarter growth beats expectations at 6.9%
China’s economy grew by 6.9% in the first quarter of 2017, according to official figures.
The growth rate, which compares expansion with the same three months in the previous year, was slightly higher than many economists had forecast.
State-led infrastructure spending and demand for new property helped drive the world’s second largest economy.
Last month China cut its growth target for this year to 6.5% from 6.7% in 2016.
China’s National Bureau of Statistics in a statement said “the national economy maintained the momentum of steady and sound development from the second half of last year, getting off to a good start in 2017 and laying a solid foundation for accomplishing the whole-year growth target.”
Another set of data also suggests a pick-up in domestic consumption. February retail sales jumped 10.9% from the previous year.
While we should always remain sceptical of the Chinese government’s GDP data, these figures suggest that growth is stabilising.
But they also demonstrate that Beijing is relying on the same old tricks to drive its economy.
Government spending on infrastructure, a booming property market and taking on debt were all things China’s leadership has pledged to move away from in the transition towards a new, modern, open economy.
All three are still evident in this data, suggesting that the “old” model of growth – that relies so much on the state – is alive and well.
In particular, debt is a concern. China’s total and private debt is now worth more than 250% of GDP and looks set to grow. Analysts are divided about just how equipped China is to handle that much debt, but whatever your view even the government has said that accumulating this much debt isn’t ideal and must be addressed.
The question is just how much political appetite there will be to accept a less-than-glamorous growth rate in a year when President Xi Jinping has arguably his most important party congress coming up.
China is a key driver of the global economy and its performance is closely watched by investors around the world. Its 2016 growth was its slowest in in 26 years.
Hidenobu Tokuda from Mizuho Research Institute in Tokyo said China should be trying to slow its growth rate in the long term, though “uncertainties remain high” about how that slowdown would happen.
Meanwhile Brian Jackson from IHS Global Insight predicted both industrial output and real estate sectors would slow.