Giuseppe Sandro Mela.
Le elezioni francesi stanno diventando sempre più simili da una partita ai dadi.
I sondaggi elettorali sono viziati dalla politica ed alla fine risultano essere scarsamente attendibili al punto tale che alcune note testate giornalistiche hanno pubblicato un editoriale in cui spiegano perché non ne pubblicheranno più.
Ma bisogna anche ammettere che i rilevamenti sono particolarmente difficoltosi.
La gente è sempre più restia a rispondere ai sondaggi telefonici: sa benissimo che le sue intenzioni di voto diventano pubbliche, e teme fortemente le inevitabili ritorsioni da parte del potere.
Un elemento sembrerebbe però emergere con ragionevole chiarezza. La dicotomia tra Parigi e sue enclavi e la Francia della provincia.
La prima tutta radical-chic. È in lutto per la decomposizione delle sinistre, è esaltata per la candidatura di Mr Macron, scuote la testa su Mr Fillon, ma poi alla fine una quota lo voterà: tutti concordi a dire peste e corna di Mrs Marine le Pen. La accusano di ciò che ai loro occhi sono i peggiori dei peggiori reati: essere “fascista“, “populista“, “anti-europeista” e persino “omofoba“.
I radical-chic hanno il controllo assoluto dei media: giornali e televisioni, che ogni giorno riversano sul Front National valanghe e valanghe di fango di ogni specie e natura. I tribunali francesi stanno lavorando a pieno ritmo per eliminare i nemici politici del regime. Se no, che ci starebbero a fare?
Ma le accuse che questi radical-chic portano a Mrs Marine Le Pen sono invece recepite in periferia, nella provincia, come ottimi motivi per votarla.
«There’s no point in demonizing the Front because so many people vote for it»
«But each time the establishment parties cooperate to keep the populists out, they feed the narrative of an elitist plot against the people, and more support shifts to Le Pen.»
«There are districts in the north of Perpignan which used to be communist and now they are voting for the Front»
«The other parties have let the city go to the dogs»
«I back Le Pen because she warned us about the European Union ages ago. I used to believe in the EU and the euro but they’ve ruined us»
«There’s no point in demonizing the Front because so many people vote for it»
* * * * * * *
Mrs Marine Le Pen sta facendo breccia nella mente e nel cuore della gente comune. Di quelli che devono far quadrare il pranzo con la cena, di quelli che constatano come il potere attuale non si curi per nulla dei loro interessi, che son poi ben semplici: avere un lavoro e poter vivere tranquilli, senza avere uno stato che si vorrebbe intrufolare fin sotto le coltri.
È estremamente significativo come vi sia un travaso di voti dalle sinistre al Front National.
Le sinistre non rappresentano più nulla tranne la loro dirigenza litigiosa. I Les Républicains si sono dilaniati in inutili consultazioni primarie, segno solo delle profonde divisioni che li attanagliano. Non hanno saputo fare quadrato attorno al loro candidato Mr Fillon, lasciandolo in balia degli sciacalli.
È Mrs Marine Le Pen l’unica che pone ai francesi le vere grandi domande di questo momento storico:
– restare od uscire dall’Eurozona;
– restare od uscire dall’Unione Europea;
– mantenere o variare le alleanze internazionali;
– migliorare le condizioni di vita e lavoro della gente del popolo.
→ Bloomberg. 2017-04-04. This French City Knows Le Pen Well and Sees Her Getting Stronger
Mainstream parties are struggling to maintain voters’ support in the regional capital of Perpignan.
About a hundred expectant white people are packed into a drab, neon-lit hall in southwestern France. Big tricolor flags hang from the walls and above the stage, a navy-blue poster carries the election slogan of the candidate who is promising to address their frustrations: “In the name of the people — Marine — President.”
Marine Le Pen’s potent mix of old-school left-wing economics and diatribes against immigrants resonates in this part of the country — and has brought the National Front closer than ever before to taking power in France. While the Parisian elite is detached from the day-to-day battle with nationalism, the ruling class in the regional capital of Perpignan has been battling to keep its voters away from extremists for decades.
“The Front is spreading,” Mayor Jean-Marc Pujol said in an interview. “There are districts in the north of Perpignan which used to be communist and now they are voting for the Front because they worry about immigration.”
Le Pen is likely to enter the presidential runoff on May 7 as the outsider to be France’s next leader, but the steady build up of her support is testing the safeguards that have kept extremists from power in the Fifth Republic for almost 60 years.
Pujol predicts that French voters will unite around a mainstream candidate in the presidential runoff on May 7 to prevent the Front from winning power, just as they did in 2002, in the 2015 regional elections and in his own battle for Perpignan city hall in 2014. But each time the establishment parties cooperate to keep the populists out, they feed the narrative of an elitist plot against the people, and more support shifts to Le Pen.
“Only Le Pen will close the borders so we don’t get foreigners coming in,” Rosy Lamiel, a 59-year-old laundress at a retirement home, said on the sidelines of the National Front rally in the small town of Thuir on the outskirts of the city. “The other parties have let the city go to the dogs.”
In 2014, National Front candidate Louis Aliot led the first round of voting in Perpignan with 34 percent — making it the only large city in France where the Front came top. In the first round of the presidential vote on April 23, Le Pen could get as much as 40 percent, according to Pujol, 67. Pujol only won the runoff against Aliot, who is also Le Pen’s partner, after the Socialist candidate withdrew, maximizing the chances of keeping the Front out.
With the worst unemployment rate in France and high levels of immigration, the region of farms and vineyards between the Spanish border and the Mediterranean Sea has proved to be fertile ground for the Front. Perpignan has been left on the sidelines as planemaker Airbus Group SE boosted neighboring Toulouse and most tourists head further east along the coast. Close to 30 percent of locals live below the poverty level, according to national statistics institute Insee.
Throughout its years as a marginal force in French politics, the party enjoyed support among the so-called pieds-noirs — French people who left Algeria after independence in 1962 — and the region’s economic problems have broadened the appeal of Le Pen’s radical plans.
“I back Le Pen because she warned us about the European Union ages ago. I used to believe in the EU and the euro but they’ve ruined us,” 45-year-old winemaker Georges Puig said at the rally. “We’ve been hit by unfair competition.”
The Front’s national proposals to bar immigrants, protect French workers from foreign competition, and crack down on crime are winning over voters like Puig. On a local level it plans to give French people priority for housing or welfare benefits, while condemning the entire ruling class.
“Perpignan brings together all the problems for which the Front has a diagnosis and a cure,” Alexandre Bolo, 30, a National Front official on the city council and parliamentary attache to Aliot, said in an interview. “A migratory invasion, the impoverishment of shops closing and young people forced to leave to find jobs, and a complete lack of dynamism from the powers that be.”
To fend off the nationalists, Mayor Pujol is opening up city-hall branch offices and social centers in the city’s more deprived districts to engage with citizens while beefing up security with more police and CCTV cameras.
The next stage is an initiative to revive the medieval St. Jacques area where a crane towers above the jumble of narrow alleys inhabited mainly by north Africans and Roma. Workmen there are fitting out Perpignan University’s new law faculty where 500 students will attend classes from this fall, moving from the school’s base on the edge of the city.
“We’re bringing one of Europe’s oldest universities back to one of France’s poorest neighborhoods,” said deputy-mayor Olivier Amiel, 38, in charge of urban redevelopment.
Amiel insists that it’s concrete projects to change the lives of local communities that will stop the populists rather than hand-wringing at their sometimes unpalatable views.
“There’s no point in demonizing the Front because so many people vote for it,” he said.