Pubblicato in: Economia e Produzione Industriale, Rapporti Commerciali, Trump, Unione Europea

Trump. Dazi del 148% sull’acciaio francese e tedesco.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2017-04-04.

Sguardi Terrorizzati 001

Bene, amici miei.

Chiariamo immediatamente alcuni concetti. 

Le teorie economiche si basano su assioni e su ipotesi, dai quali si deducono quindi le conseguenze.

Esse non costituiscono materia di fede: si applicano fino a tanto che sono utili e quindi le si dismettono, ed anche senza rimpianti.

Sussistono quindi provvedimenti appropriati e provvedimenti inappropriati, ma il giudizio è storico, solo a posteriori quando è possibile verificarne gli effetti.

A priori, nessuno può dire nulla.

Il secondo concetto è più sottile. Una cosa è compiere un’azione perché imposta da una teoria assunta a dogma – ossia una scleta obbligata -, ed una totalmente differente è intraprendere liberamente la stessa identica azione perchè di utilità.

I dazi imposti dal Presidente Trump sono da ascriversi a questa ultima categoria. Mr Trump ritiene che i dazi siano utili in questo momento per l’economica americana. Non è un eretico non essendo un religioso: è esclusivamente un pragmatico empirista.Quando non serviranno più li toglierà tranquillamente.

Poi, la gente dica pure ciò che vuole. Tanto i dazi ci sono e ci restano.

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«It’s official now. Donald Trump’s anti-trade rhetoric has translated into hard-hitting import duties on European and Asian steel makers. U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross announced Thursday plans to impose duties as high as 148 percent on imports from France, Germany, Japan and Taiwan.»

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«German Foreign Minister Sigmar Gabriel responded promptly on Friday»

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«We Europeans cannot accept this …. The E.U. must now consider whether it, too, will lodge a complaint with the WTO. I strongly support this»

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«Export-driven Germany has the world’s largest trade surplus – a net €253 billion, or $271 billion, after deduction of imports – which is ahead of China and Japan»

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«Earlier this month, Handelsblatt learned of the U.S. administration’s plans to “bring out the big guns” with its import duties»

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Adesso è arrivato il momento che a trangugiare sia proprio Frau Merkel e quel rimasuglio di Mr Hollande.

Mettere dazi è possibile, possibilissimo: Mr Trump ne è l’esempio vivente. Li aveva annunciati e li ha messi in atto. E, tra l’altro, Mr Trump ha un arsenale atomico e le portaerei: Frau Merkel ha solo una bella raccolta di preservativi usati.

E cosa può mai fare Mr Sigmar Gabriel? Noleggiare due gozzi ed invadere gli Stati Uniti? Si rifuterà di importare l’elettronica americana? Uscirà dalla Nato?

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Con un conto approssimato balleranno duecentomila posti di lavoro nel settore siderurgico.

* * * * * * * *

Frau Merkel deve abbassare la cresta, e di molto, e tornare nei ranghi. I tedeshi devono pagare il conto prima di estinguirsi.

Per colazione, pranzo e cena si mangino pure i laminati di acciaio prodotti in eccesso, prima della chiusura degli stabilimenti.

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Amici miei!

La Realpolitik stritola chiunque non la sappia concepire e mettere in pratica. Lì non albergano i bulli di periferia oppure le visionarie.

E, si badi bene: siamo solo agli inizi. Nessuno, ma proprio nessuno, si illuda.

Tutti i conti devono essere pagati, fino all’ultimo centesimo e con tanto di interessi.


Handelsblatt. 2017-04-03. Germany’s Worst-Case Scenario

Less than 24 hours after U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross announced plans to slap duties on steel imports, Germany responded. Foreign Minister Sigmar Gabriel is considering legal steps. A trade war could be in the making.

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It’s official now. Donald Trump’s anti-trade rhetoric has translated into hard-hitting import duties on European and Asian steel makers. U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross announced Thursday plans to impose duties as high as 148 percent on imports from France, Germany, Japan and Taiwan.

German Foreign Minister Sigmar Gabriel responded promptly on Friday, saying the United States was giving domestic firms “unfair competitive advantage” over European rivals and others in violation of international trade law.

“We Europeans cannot accept this,” Mr. Gabriel said in a statement. “The E.U. must now consider whether it, too, will lodge a complaint with the WTO. I strongly support this.”

The minister warned that the duties could easily trigger a trade war with the United States, Germany’s biggest export market ahead of neighboring France and Britain. “If the United States continues its unfair competition policies, it will create the same dangers for other industries,” he said.

Export-driven Germany has the world’s largest trade surplus – a net €253 billion, or $271 billion, after deduction of imports – which is ahead of China and Japan. Last year, the country exported €107 billion worth of goods to the United States, including BMW cars, Siemens medical equipment and SAP business software.

«If the American president wants to start a trade war with import restrictions and new customs duties, then Europe has to prepare itself.» [Carsten Schneider, Social Democratic lawmaker]

f Mr. Trump pushes through his trade-restrictions to decrease the U.S. trade deficit and create jobs at home, German businesses and other importers to the U.S. could see their sales fall, and Chancellor Angela Merkel’s government could see corporate tax revenue drop. Trade policy was a contentious issue when she met with Mr. Trump in the White House two weeks ago.

The potential trade war has been on the table ever since Mr. Trump took office in January.

Earlier this month, Handelsblatt learned of the U.S. administration’s plans to “bring out the big guns” with its import duties.

A senior member of the center-left Social Democratic Party, Ms. Merkel’s junior coalition partner, warned the U.S. administration that Berlin would retaliate if German exporters faced trade barriers.

2017-04-04__Dazi__001

“If the American president wants to start a trade war with import restrictions and new customs duties, then Europe has to prepare itself,” Carsten Schneider, a leading Social Democratic member of parliament, told Handelsbatt. “We shouldn’t rule out controls on the movement of capital.”

German capital finances a significant portion of the U.S. trade deficit and Berlin could use this as leverage, Mr. Schneider said.

Germany’s finance and economic ministries have already drafted contingency plans should the United States follow through with a 20-percent border-adjustment tax. Under one proposal, German exporters would be able to write off the new U.S. taxes from their tax burden in Germany.

When and how the steel duties will be imposed is still unclear. If the levies come into force, it would hit Salzgitter and Dillinger Hüttenwerke in Germany, Luxembourg-listed ArcelorMittal, Tokyo Steel Manufacturing and Taiwanese companies Shang Chen Steel, among other.

The levies are still subject to review by the U.S. International Trade Commissions and, if approved, the U.S. Commerce Department could issue orders on May 22.

The department, however, has already instructed the U.S. Customs and Border Protection to “collect cash deposits” based on the duties rates it had calculated. It was also not clear whether these tariffs would be applied to future imports or could be applied retroactively. The department referred to 2015 import figures in its statement.

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