Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Sistemi Politici

Cento anni fa iniziò la rivoluzione russa.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2017-03-29.

Vulcano Mount St. Helens, Stato di Washington

«La rivoluzione russa è stato un evento sociopolitico, occorso in Russia nel 1917, che portò al rovesciamento dell’Impero russo capitanato dal regime zarista e alla formazione prima della Repubblica Socialista Federativa Sovietica Russa e, cinque anni più tardi nel 1922 in seguito alla guerra civile russa, dell’Unione Sovietica; fu un tentativo di applicazione delle teorie sociali ed economiche di Karl Marx e Friedrich Engels. ….

Il regime zarista, chiuso a riccio nella difesa del principio dell’autocrazia, aveva ormai perso del tutto il contatto con la realtà della Russia, al punto che anche molti degli elementi conservatori delle classi tradizionalmente alleate del regime, stavano prendendo coscienza che solo un’uscita di scena dello zar Nicola II avrebbe loro permesso di mantenere il controllo dello Stato. A Mosca scoppiò la rivolta con la rivoluzione di febbraio e il 2 marzo Duma e soviet di operai e soldati si accordarono per la deposizione dello zar, e l’istituzione di un governo provvisorio formato da cadetti, menscevichi e socialisti rivoluzionari. ….

Il 3 aprile Lenin arrivò alla stazione di Pietrogrado: ad attenderlo vi era una folla enorme a riprova della rilevanza che le tesi dei bolscevichi cominciavano ad avere all’interno del movimento rivoluzionario.

Il giorno seguente, 4 aprile 1917, alla conferenza del partito bolscevico Lenin espose quelle che sarebbero diventate le dieci linee guida del partito per i mesi futuri, conosciute come le “Tesi di Aprile”.» [Fonte]

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Le rivoluzioni sono come le eruzioni vulcaniche.

Per lungo tempo il vulcano accumula energia nella camera magmatica. I segni di questa attività sono minimali e talora anche contrastanti: qualche fumarola, iniziano a comparire coni secondari di breve durata. Apparentemente tutto sembrerebbe essere tranquillo. Spesso anche gli strumenti di misura non evidenziano fenomeno eclamptici.

Poi l’energia accumulata nella camera magmatica raggiunge il livello critico, spesso a causa di assestamenti energeticamente quasi irrilevanti, ma che funzionano da innesco, da trigger.

In quel momento allora il vulcano entra in eruzione e libera tutta la energia accumulata.

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Le analogie con i fatti politici e sociali sono impressionanti.

Gli esseri umani sembrano vivere ignorando l’esistenza del principio di azione – reazione: ad ogni azione corrisponde una reazione eguale e contraria.

Le classi dirigenziali si arroccano nel loro potere, non percepiscono i segnali che avrebbero dovuto indurli a mutare idee e prassi. Come risultato esse sono travolte dagli eventi. e scompaiono dal proscenio. Vivono in modo acritico ed acefalo il presente immanente senza la minima percezione del futuro: si illudono che tutto continui a funzionare come prima, ragionano con moduli mentali obsoleti incapaci di percepire il reale.

È quello successo con la rivoluzione di Cromwell a metà del seicento, con la rivoluzione francese a fine settecento, con quello successo in Russia agli inizi del novecento, con la rivoluzione di Deng Xiaping in Cina e di Putin in Russia a fine novecento, e con quello che sta per succedere in Europa agli inizi degli anni duemila, adesso.

È stupefacente la cecità mentale della gente, anche di quella colta, di fronte a fenomeni epocali.

Non ci si stupisca poi più di tanto.

Si percepisce soltanto ciò che la mente è pronta a recepire ed è perfettamente inutile cercare di spiegare a qualcuno un qualcosa cui già non ci sia arrivato da solo.

Una sola considerazione: al momento della rivoluzione di ottobre l’allora partito comunista russo contava meno di mille iscritti ufficiali, e la rivoluzione effettiva fu guidata da meno di duecento persone. Le rivoluzioni non sono mai fenomeni di massa: sono come le valanghe.

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L’editoriale di Tyler Durden che proponiamo mette a fuoco un aspetto relativamente poco studiato dei fatti di un secolo fa: l’allora borsa valori.

Una conclusione è però doverosa, anche se ai più suonerà amara, molto amara.

Tutte le rivoluzioni si estinguono solo dopo aver raggiunto la loro massima estensione: i processi storici arrivano sempre alle loro massime conseguenze. Che la rivoluzione francese sarebbe finita con il trionfo e caduta dei giacobini lo avrebbe dovuto vedere chiunque, sarebbe bastato leggersi i brevi di SS Clemente XIV e, poi, quelli di SS Pio VI ed avere un minimo di potere analitico deduttivo. E se la gente se li rileggesse ora potrebbe anche capire dove si stia parando.

Maieutico è l’ultimo grafico sull’andamento delle quotazioni dell’oro. Erano state immobili per oltre trenta anni. Poi, dal 1914 al 1920 salirono di trentamila volte.

Una lezione che gli esseri umani non impareranno mai: se no, non sarebbero esseri umani.


Zero Hedge. 2017-03-24. 100 Years Ago, Russian Stocks Had A Very Bad Day

In recent months, Ray Dalio seems to be undergoing a deep midlife and identity crisis, which has not only led to dramatic recent management changes at the world’s largest hedge fund, Bridgewater, but also resulted in some fairly spectacular cognitive dissonance, as Dalio first praised, then slammed, president Trump. Yesterday. in the latest expression of his building anti-Trumpian sentiment, Bridgewater released a 61-page report looking at “Populism: the Phenomenon”, which describes what Bridgewater sees as the “archetypical populist template,” which the fund built out through studying 14 past populist leaders in 10 different countries.

The unspoken message in the report is that the US is the 15 example of the “populist leader”, and since all 14 cases presented by Dalio had less than happy endings, the implication is that Bridgewater is hardly optimistic or excited about the near-term future for the US.

Dalio’s politics aside, however, the report, among other notable historical observations, has a fascinating aside into what happened some 100 years ago in post-World War I and Tsarist Russia under Vladiir Lenin and the Russian Revolution.

World War I proved to be Tsarist Russia’s death knell: Russia’s military suffered severe defeats against Germany, leading to massive casualties, as well as high inflation and food shortages. In response, an initial revolution occurred in early 1917 (the February Revolution), forcing the abdication of Tsar Nicholas II and producing a liberal republic that legalized political parties.

It was during Russia’s short-lived and weak democratic period that Vladimir Lenin and the Bolshevik Party were able to seize power. The new provisional liberal government, formed by members of the prior legislative assembly, was barely more effective than the earlier regime. It was forced to share power with the councils of workers (the “Soviets”) that helped organize the revolution and had more support from workers and soldiers. The provisional government became unpopular when it unsuccessfully continued Russian participation in WWI. With political parties no longer barred, Lenin decided to return from his exile in neutral Switzerland (with the help of the German army, which hoped to create further disorder in Russia). Lenin helped lead the Bolshevik Party to prominence, and in the October Revolution of 1917, he led a second (initially largely bloodless) revolution against the new Russian republic, seizing power. Hoping to give the revolution democratic legitimacy, the Bolsheviks still held a previously planned election in November—which they lost to a different socialist party (the Socialist Revolutionaries) that was broadly supported by the rural poor. But Lenin was able to take advantage of Russia’s weak democratic institutions, no rule of law, and disunity among the Socialist Revolutionaries to void the election and maintain control. Almost immediately, anti-communist forces rebelled against Bolshevik rule, sparking a brutal, multi-sided civil war that resulted in the victory of the more united and better organized Red Army, and the creation of the USSR in 1922.

Lenin aimed to create an economy where the means of production were state-owned and centrally planned. As a central Bolshevik policy, abolishing private property was one of Lenin’s first moves. Following the Russian revolution, the Decree on Land in October 1917 abolished private property and seized the estates of wealthy Russians with no compensation, giving the land to the state and allowing peasants to continue to farm. Lenin also launched a campaign to seize the personal wealth of the aristocracy and return it to the government, rallying mobs to prevent the wealthy from escaping the country:

    “The bourgeoisie are concealing in their coffers the riches which they have plundered, and are saying, ‘We shall sit tight for a while.’ We must catch the plunderers and compel them to return the spoils.

This was followed by the compulsory nationalization of Russian industry. Nationalizations started at the company level, with workers, empowered by Lenin’s decrees, replacing the factory owner with newly formed committees to run the business. Later on this process became more centralized, as entire sectors were nationalized at once as the Bolsheviks installed commissioners to oversee major corporations or industries. By mid-1918, the Bolsheviks had nationalized most factories, mines, and farms, and the government was strictly regulating production and prices—ordering workers to produce, then seizing and reissuing the output.

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Lenin’s nationalization of the banks appeared to precipitate an economic crisis. In late 1917, Lenin seized all deposits of the aristocracy and corporations, sparing only the small savings accounts of workers, effectively creating capital controls on the aristocracy’s ability to get wealth out of Russia. In addition, Lenin’s policies criminalizing capitalism expanded through 1918 to outlaw interest payments and he defaulted on all government debt (worth over $600 billion in today’s dollars), wiping out most of the wealth that investors had left in Russia.

Liquidity seized up in response. A strike by bank workers in response to nationalization, starting in December 1917 and going for months, effectively shut down the banking system, meaning many newly nationalized businesses that relied on banks couldn’t pay their workers. The government responded to the crunch by printing money to fund the newly nationalized industries. Still, many factory committees, in search of someone to blame for late wages, fired managers and other senior employees, making it difficult to function and meet the decreed production quotas. At the same time, foreign governments retaliated against the Russian default by freezing Russia’s foreign assets. As controls escalated, many Russians tried to move what remained of their wealth, and often themselves, out of the country, reinforcing the squeeze. From 1917 to 1920, between 1 and 2 million Russians left the country and settled across the globe.

The resulting economic collapse—caused by the combination of asset confiscation, civil war, and a banking crisis—was devastating. As capital pulled out, the ruble collapsed, and the economy spiraled into hyperinflation.

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How did all of the above look like through the prism of capital markets? Actually, very much like something out a Nassim Taleb book, specifically when looked at from the perspective of the Turkey, because while stocks were shut down during World War I, they nearly doubled upon reopening after the fall of the Tsarist regime, however not for long… Because just a few days later, Russian stocks had a very bad day, and once Lenin nationalized everything and abolished private property, Russian equities lost all their value overnight.

2017-03-24__Russia__001

Ironically, “Turkey” investors were just as delighted with not only the early days of the post-tsarist regime in Russia, but also of Hitler Germany. where the stock market nearly tripled between Hitler’s appointment as Chancellor in January 1933, and March 1938 when Germany annexed Austria.

As for the only asset that survived the disintegration of the Russian economy one century ago, it is shown in the chart below.

2017-03-24__Russia__002

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