Giuseppe Sandro Mela.
Si sono svolte in Olanda le elezioni politiche.
Adesso, passata la foga elettorale, gli eletti dovrebbero formare un Governo.
Premettiamo che la situazione politica olandese è sempre stata frammentata. Accanto a due partiti di salda maggioranza relativa, da sempre si ha una costellazione di partiti minori.
Questa situazione ha da sempre condotto a Governi di coalizione, più o meno coesi, ma in genere sufficientemente stabili.
Se da un punto di vista ciò è un bene, perché così il Governo è maggiormente sensibile alle esigenze di una più vasta porzione dell’elettorato, da un altro punto di vista è un male, perché è difficile avere una chiara linea politica nazionale quando siano troppe, e talora contrastanti, le voci in capitolo. Portiamo solo un esempio:
«The ChristenUnie is strictly opposed to regulated cannabis cultivation and assisted suicide at the end of a full life, two topics the D66 has been vehemently fighting for over the past years»
* * * * * * *
«On Monday the leaders of the VVD, CDA and D66 all indicated that they are up for forming a government together.»
«But as those three parties don’t have a majority in seats, a fourth party is needed»
«VVD leader Mark Rutte left a possible fourth party in the air, mentioning SP, GroenLinks, ChristenUnie and PvdA»
«CDA leader Sybrand Buma said that GroenLinks and ChristenUnie should be considered»
«D66 leader Alexander Pechtold thinks that GroenLinks should be the party that brings the coalition a majority»
* * * * * * *
Staremo a vedere cosa esiterà da queste consultazioni.
Una cosa apparirebbe però certa.
Anche se Herr Mark continuerà a fare il Primo Ministro, ben difficilmente potrà seguire la linea politica che aveva adottato con il precedente governo.
Andando al pratico, interessa più cosa faccia un governo piuttosto che da chi sia composto. Il Mussolini del 1944 non aveva il margine di azione del Mussolini del 1930.
Anzi, da un certo quale punto di vista, lascia persino sorridenti che sia proprio Herr Rutte a dover pilotare il cambio di rotta. Così almeno potrebbe dire Nemesi.
→ NL Times. 2017-03-21. Coalition talks continue: Liberal, Christian Dems, D66, Green government discussed
After talking with all 13 elected party leaders on Monday, “coalition scout” Edith Schippers will be meeting with the leaders of the VVD, CDA, D66 and GroenLinks today to discuss a possible coalition, RTL Nieuws reports.
On Monday the leaders of the VVD, CDA and D66 all indicated that they are up for forming a government together. But as those three parties don’t have a majority in seats, a fourth party is needed. VVD leader Mark Rutte left a possible fourth party in the air, mentioning SP, GroenLinks, ChristenUnie and PvdA. CDA leader Sybrand Buma said that GroenLinks and ChristenUnie should be considered. D66 leader Alexander Pechtold thinks that GroenLinks should be the party that brings the coalition a majority.
As the most mentioned party, and the party that won the most seats in the election, GroenLinks and party leader Jesse Klaver are therefore part of today’s coalition discussion.
While the coalition exploration seems to be progressing swiftly, the negotiations are far from over. The D66 is enthusiastic about working with GroenLinks, but the VVD and CDA will be less so. In content the three parties differ greatly on, for example, climate, tax and asylum seekers.
Gert-Jan Segers and his ChristenUnie is another possibility for the fourth party in the coalition, though he stated that largest party VVD and seat winners CDA, D66 and GroenLinks should be given preference. But if it does come to forming a coalition with the ChristenUnie, there will be hard negotiations ahead with the D66. The ChristenUnie is strictly opposed to regulated cannabis cultivation and assisted suicide at the end of a full life, two topics the D66 has been vehemently fighting for over the past years.
Jesse Klaver of GroenLinks suggested a “Christian progressive” coalition with the CDA, D66, PvdA, SP, GroenLinks and ChristenUnie. PVV leader Geert Wilders wants a right-wing cabinet with the VVD, CDA, PVV, 50Plus, SGP and FvD. But both these options seem very unlikely. CDA leader Buma is against the “Christian progressive” coalition, which takes a large number of seats away from it. And the VVD and CDA both stated that they won’t work with the PVV, which leaves Wilders’ right-wing coalition with a solid minority in parliament.
As coalition scout Schippers will write a report about the most promising coalition formations. She hopes to have this report ready by Wednesday, so that it can be debated in parliament on Thursday. The coalition report will be the first topic the Tweede Kamer, the lower house of Dutch parliament, will debate in its new formation. Departing parliamentarians are saying goodbye on Wednesday and the new parliamentarians will be sworn in on Thursday.
The Dutch electoral council Kiesraad is announcing the official election results at 4:00 p.m. this afternoon. Little change is expected from the projections. The final projection has the VVD as the largest party with 33 seats and the PVV in second place with 20 seats. Then follows the CDA and D66 with 19 seats each and the SP and GroenLinks with 14 each.
→ Bloomberg. 2017-03-21. Dutch Decisions: What Are Rutte’s Options After Beating Wilders?
– 81% chance Christian Democrats, D66 will be in government
– Premier’s Liberals won Dutch general election on March 15
The Dutch voted and chose a clear leader: Prime Minister Mark Rutte. Winning was the easy part; now he has to find partners in a landscape that is more complicated than ever in which to form a new government.
With 13 parties in parliament, the highest number since 1972, Rutte has a lot to choose from, yet with neither the left nor the right dominating, it could take weeks and possibly even months before Rutte’s third cabinet can be put in place.
Likely Coalition Partners
Geert Wilders’s Freedom Party is the second largest party with 20 seats, but there is zero chance of him being in coalition after Rutte ruled him out weeks ago. Sybrand Buma’s Christian Democrats and Alexander Pechtold’s D66, followed by Jesse Klaver’s Greens, are the most likely partners in Rutte’s coalition, according to a Bloomberg analysis of the parties’ campaign policies. That doesn’t, though, take into account preferences announced by party leaders before and after the vote.
As informal talks got under way in The Hague Monday, Rutte said that the Christian Democrats and D66 have to form part of the new administration, while Pechtold said the Greens should also be in the coalition. Liberal Health Minister Edith Schippers is due to speak with all four leaders of those parties again Tuesday before reporting back to parliament later this week on the prospects for a new coalition.
Bloomberg collected over 100 policy positions for Dutch political parties across roughly 30 key election topics, from immigration and integration to pension age and taxes, to determine which possible coalitions have the most policy in common.
A coalition with an average policy overlap of 50 percent — meaning all partners share half their respective policy positions with each other — on average is seen as more cohesive and likelier to successfully complete a full four-year term than a coalition with a 40 percent overlap.
A stable coalition needs at least a combined 76 seats in the lower house of parliament to ensure it can get legislation through.
What are the Ideal Coalitions?
A coalition of at least four parties is needed to form a functioning government, and in an ideal situation this group also should have sufficient backing in the upper house.
According to the Bloomberg research, the Liberals, the Christian Democrats, D66 and the Greens would be a worthy match, with 85 combined seats and an average policy overlap of 49 percent across the issues analyzed. The parties’ pro-Europe stances as well as their shared positions on raising the pension age to 67 and making fixed labor contracts more attractive by loosening rules on firing employees, could ultimately form part of the basis for such a coalition.
Klaver, though, said Monday that he’d prefer a coalition of parties on the left together with the Christian Democrats, an idea Buma rebuffed.
The Christian Union could be an alternative in a coalition including the Liberal Party, D66 and the Christian Democrats. They won 5 seats and would provide the slimmest possible majority in both chambers, though that coalition has a cohesiveness ranking that is more than 5 percentage points lower than the one with the Greens.
The coalition with the most in common includes Lodewijk Asscher’s Labor Party and has more than 50 percent cohesiveness, though after the party’s worst election result in history, Labor members called at the weekend for the party to go into opposition.