Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Unione Europea

Confindustria e Banche francesi parlamentano con Mrs Marine le Pen.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2017-03-09.

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Di questi tempi i sondaggi elettorali sembrerebbero essere impazziti. Rilevamenti fatti nello stesso giorno presentano differenze anche di dodici punti percentuali. Sono francamente improponibili.

Ma i dati trionfali che i media riportano per Mr Macron, il candidato liberal di Mr Rothschild e di alcune lobby innominabili, trovano anche molti critici:

«only 49 percent of those saying they will vote Macron are sure of their choice, the lowest of any of the candidates, according to an Ifop poll March 7» [Fonte]

In altri termini, le società dei sondaggi riportano come espressioni certe di voto per Mr Macron anche le quote che avrebbero dovuto essere riportate tra gli incerti. Il chiarimento metodologico è riportato, sicuramente, ma in corpo due sepolto nelle quattro pagine metodologiche. Le proiezioni per Mr Macron sarebbero quindi molto gonfiate.

Le uniche cose ragionevolmente certe, ragionevolmente sottolineiamo, sono che il Front National avrebbe una quota di propensioni al voto che oscilla dal 22 al 32 % degli intervistati, contro un 18 – 26 % di Mr Macron (con le limitazioni sopra dette), ed un 16 -24 % di Mr Fillon. Quota questa sia per le elezioni presidenziali sia per quelle politiche.

Alcune cose emergono chiaramente.

Al primo turno per le presidenziali non dovrebbe uscire un vincitore.

Al secondo turno non sarà facile che l’elettorato dei Les Républicains voti Mr Macron in odio a Mrs le Pen, vista la campagna giudiziaria intrapresa nei confronti del loro candidato Mr Fillon. Similmente, sarà alquanto difficile che un elettorato di sinistra in odio alla Le Pen voti alla fine per Mr Fillon. E senza accordo di desistenza, formale oppure tacito, Mrs Le Pen potrebbe anche diventare Presidente della Francia.

È una campagna elettorale caratterizzata da un odio viscerale difficilmente riscontrabile nella storia, a prescindere dalle recenti elezioni americane. E non è detto che la persecuzione giudiziaria avviata nei confronti di Mr Fillon abbia poi presa sulla maggioranza silenziosa.

Un’ultima cosa certa è che Mrs Le Pen potrebbe raggiungere in seno all’Assemblea Nazionale un numero di deputati variabile tra i 60 ed i 70. Ma non sarebbe nemmeno da stupirsi se, venendo meno la desistenza crociata tra sinistra e Le Républicains, Mrs Le Pen si portasse a casa un buon terzo dei deputati al parlamento.

Non sempre, ma spesso tra i due litiganti, il terzo gode. Di  certo, in sede parlamentare Mrs Le Pen potrebbe disporre di un numero di deputati tale da condizionare fortemente un governicchio scoeso e con istanze diametralmente divergenti.

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Ma forse la situazione non è così mal posta per Mrs Marine Le Pen come i media rumoreggiano, visto che le banche ed i grandi imprenditori francesi le hanno chiesto diversi abboccamenti. Contasse nulla, non si sarebbero scomodati. Questa sembrerebbe essere cosa certa.

Non solo.

Di queste riunioni nulla è trapelato.

«National Front leader holds first talks with CAC40 CEO»

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«French mid-cap lobby group requests meeting this month»

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«With polls showing the far-right candidate remains favorite to lead the first-round of voting on April 23, the business community’s united front against the nationalist leader is beginning to fracture»

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Bene.

Se il fronte anti-Le Pen inizia a frantumarsi nulla vieta di pensare che possa anche schiantarsi.

Il redde rationem si sta avvicinando a grandi passi.

Chiunque sia eletto alla presidenza della Francia dovrà fare una grande attenzione a non far tracimare l’elettorato del Front.


Bloomberg. 2017-03-08. French Banks Keep Blackballing Le Pen as Companies Make Contact

– National Front leader holds first talks with CAC40 CEO

– French mid-cap lobby group requests meeting this month

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Marine Le Pen is making inroads with corporate France weeks before the presidential election, though the country’s lenders and investors are still shunning her anti-euro agenda.

With polls showing the far-right candidate remains favorite to lead the first-round of voting on April 23, the business community’s united front against the nationalist leader is beginning to fracture.

Le Pen has held her first meeting with the chief executive officer of a blue-chip French industrial company, her chief of staff Nicolas Lesage said in an interview, declining to give further details. Such talks would breach the code of conduct that France’s most important lobby group, AFEP, imposes on its CEOs. The lobby for mid-cap companies, Medef, has asked for a meeting with the National Front leader this month, a spokeswoman said.

The party’s rise to electoral prominence poses a dilemma for French executives. Still funded by Le Pen’s father Jean-Marie who has been convicted multiple times for inciting racial hatred and Holocaust denial, its stigma is still strongly felt by many French people.

By meeting with the nationalist, companies risk lending credibility to a party that many see as a threat to Europe’s economic stability. By shunning her, they leave themselves unprepared if she does pull off a victory, which Antonio Barroso, a political analyst at Teneo Intelligence in London, sees as a 20 percent chance.

“We must keep all possible doors open and find those to talk to,” said Paul Boury, president of Paris-based lobbying firm Boury, Tallon & Associates, which represents several major corporations and trade associations. “CEOs place their bets,” he added.

‘No Time to Waste’

Financial institutions including Credit Agricole SA, Societe Generale SA and Axa SA have avoided contact with Le Pen’s team, even though her policy plans threaten to upend the banking system, according to Le Pen’s main economic advisers Jean Messiha, Bernard Monot and Mikael Sala.

“I have no time to waste speaking with a candidate who manipulates data and reality and whose platform doesn’t stand a chance of ever being implemented,” Patrick Artus, Natixis chief economist, said in an interview. “I can understand that colleagues outside France may need a better understanding, but I know what her plan consists of and I would gain nothing from asking her more.”

The banking industry has so far proved impervious to Le Pen’s work to clean up the party’s image since taking over as leader from her father in 2011. She’s made the economy and a euro exit the centerpiece of her platform to bring together the extreme-right and nationalist wings of her movement.

“Banks in general don’t want to interfere in the political debate,” Societe Generale CEO Frederic Oudea said in an interview with Bloomberg Television. “Is it fair to say that as a French bank we understand a little bit more of her than people in the U.S.? We have a relatively good understanding of the debate.”

International Investors

The research department at Credit Agricole has had no meetings with the anti-euro candidate, according to a person at the bank who spoke on the condition of anonymity. A spokesperson for fund manager Amundi SA said it had no contact with any candidates.

The French banking federation declined to comment as did a spokespeople for BNP Paribas SA and Credit Agricole. Axa’s press office didn’t respond to a request for comment.

Le Pen has had approaches from international investors during this election campaign, and her advisers met with firms including BlackRock Inc, Barclays Plc and UBS Group AG as they look to gain familiarity with her plans, the first such contact for Le Pen and her party.

French companies now are starting to adopt a similar approach. The mid-cap lobby group Medef, which also does some work for the banking federation, plans its meeting with Le Pen as part of its talks with all the candidates.

The small business group CPME similarly hosted the National Front leader at an event Monday, where her rivals, the independent front-runner Emmanuel Macron and Republican Francois Fillon also spoke. Le Pen’s official agenda also shows she has met with representatives from the construction, farming and health-care industries.

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