Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Finanza e Sistema Bancario, Unione Europea

Redde Rationem. Draghi chiederà lunedì cosa dover fare dei QE.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2017-02-06.

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Questo lunedì Mario Draghi parlerà all’Europarlamento e risponderà alle relative domande.

Il tema centrale sarebbe quello di cercare ci capire cosa intendano decidere di fare gli eurodeputati.

Ma al momento attuale l’Europarlamento sembrerebbe non avere alcuna idea in proposito.

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«ECB president will testify at European Parliament on Monday»

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«Critics seek clarity on stimulus end after inflation jump»

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«Mario Draghi will face European lawmakers on Monday knowing he can’t please them all.»

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«The European Central Bank president can cite accelerating inflation, declining unemployment and 15 quarters of expansion as evidence that his stimulus policies are working»

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«U.S. President Donald Trump is threatening to tear up trade agreements, and European elections this year have seen the rise of extremist parties»

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«Draghi’s testimony at the European Parliament’s Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee starts at 3 p.m. local time with a statement, following which he’ll answer questions from legislators»

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«After recently flirting with deflation, the ECB now has a euro-area inflation rate of 1.8 percent that could rise still higher»

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«Even though the central bank’s goal is just under 2 percent, it intends to keep its bond-buying program running until at least the end of the year. It expects to keep interest rates at record-low levels for even longer.»

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«that inflation must be near its goal “in the medium term”»

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«the inflation pickup must be durable»

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«price growth must remain stable even if extraordinary stimulus is withdrawn»

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«There’s also a risk that the latest inflation surge is just a blip»

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Il vuoto politico in seno alla Commissione Europea ed all’Europarlamento è impressionante.

Nessuno che debba, nessuno che possa, nessuno che voglia assumersi una sia pur minima responsabilità operativa.

Tutti vorrebbero un miracolo, ma, non credendo in Dio, constatano che loro non sono in grado di farli.

Tutti vorrebbero che Mario Draghi risolvesse problemi strutturali ed economici con i soli mezzi monetari e finanziari, cosa semplicemente impossibile.

Così come è pia illusione, per non dire delirio schizofrenico, ritenere che la Banca centrale possa impunemente stampare carta moneta senza fine.

Tutti i politici della élite dirigenziale europea stanno con il fiato sospeso ad attendere i risultati delle elezioni olandesi e francesi.

Saranno grandi amarezze. Comunque esitino, nel migliore dei casi si assisterà ad un chaos sistematizzato, e nulla è peggio in politica del chaos.

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E sullo sfondo c’è il convitato di pietra: nessuno vuole parlarne, ma questo c’è lo stesso.

Nella attuale situazione mondiale potrebbe irrompere prepotentemente l’inflazione, ed allora saranno davvero lacrime e sangue. Ma almeno l’inflazione la pagherebbero tutti.


Bloomberg. 2017-02-06. Draghi Takes QE Case to Brussels as Politics Keeps Risk High

– ECB president will testify at European Parliament on Monday

– Critics seek clarity on stimulus end after inflation jump

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Mario Draghi will face European lawmakers on Monday knowing he can’t please them all.

The European Central Bank president can cite accelerating inflation, declining unemployment and 15 quarters of expansion as evidence that his stimulus policies are working. To face down calls to withdraw that support and let the euro-area economy stand on its own, he’ll probably also have to point to weak underlying price growth and a turbulent political environment.

Surging inflation is stoking frustration in some countries — notably Germany — while the slow exit from the financial crisis is fueling a backlash against deeper European integration. Although that’s a concern for Draghi, he also has to acknowledge that there are plenty of ways the recovery could falter. U.S. President Donald Trump is threatening to tear up trade agreements, and European elections this year have seen the rise of extremist parties.

Draghi’s testimony at the European Parliament’s Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee starts at 3 p.m. local time with a statement, following which he’ll answer questions from legislators. He may also be asked about the region’s bank woes and on the pledges from populist parties to leave the euro if they seize power.

To watch Draghi’s testimony at 3 p.m. in Brussels, click here

After recently flirting with deflation, the ECB now has a euro-area inflation rate of 1.8 percent that could rise still higher. Even though the central bank’s goal is just under 2 percent, it intends to keep its bond-buying program running until at least the end of the year. It expects to keep interest rates at record-low levels for even longer.

The outlook for the region’s economy isn’t gloomy. Business confidence in the first quarter rose to the highest level in one and a half years, a report by the Ifo institute showed on Monday. Most of the experts polled expect higher long-term interest rates over the next 6 months.

Still, Draghi said in a press conference on Jan. 19 that too much inflation would be a “high-class problem” and that tapering bond buying wasn’t even discussed by the Governing Council. He gave four criteria that must be met before winding down stimulus.

On the first — that inflation must be near its goal “in the medium term” — the latest ECB projections show progress.

The next requirement — that the inflation pickup must be durable — is more difficult to judge. Core inflation and other gauges that try to discern underlying dynamics from energy costs show that price pressures remain essentially weak.

That strong inflation is still a long way off was confirmed by data on German salaries on Monday. Real wages rose 1.8 percent in 2016, the slowest pace in three years, despite unemployment falling to the lowest level on record.

Draghi also said price growth must remain stable even if extraordinary stimulus is withdrawn. The ECB’s own calculations show that the effect of monetary support will be significant for a while to come.

Draghi noted that the ECB is focused on inflation for the euro area as a whole, not for individual countries. German complaints that its stronger economy needs tighter policy won’t sway policy makers if the rest of the currency bloc is too far behind. The ECB’s forecasts suggest that the divergences seen since the region’s debt crisis are narrowing, but there’s still a way to go.

That progress could fade away in the face of geopolitical risks, and one of the highest profile concerns right now is the direction of U.S. policy. There’s also a risk that the latest inflation surge is just a blip.

It’s all likely to keep Draghi — and investors — cautious. The euro was down 0.4 percent at $1.0737 at 11:18 a.m. Frankfurt time. The spread between French and German bond yields widened and gold rose.

“We do not react to short-term fluctuations, particularly those caused by energy and other commodity prices,” Executive Board member Benoit Coeure said in a speech in Paris on Thursday. “The core of our analysis will be ‘is this higher inflation sustainable?’ The conclusion today is: no.”


Reuters. 2017-02-06. Euro fades in face of French election risks

The euro fell around half a percent on Monday as concerns over French politics ahead of presidential elections set for April and May drew investors’ focus back to a year of political risks to Europe’s established order.

The dollar was broadly steadier after a poor set of wages data on Friday quashed speculation of a near-term rise in U.S. interest rates and sealed the currency’s fourth straight weekly fall, its worst start to a year in three decades.

In a relatively slow start to the week, the Aussie dollar was the other biggest mover among the G10 group of major currencies, down almost half a percent after a weaker batch of retail sales numbers.

The euro ground lower in the European morning to trade as weak as $1.0734 EUR=, compared with two month highs above $1.08 hit last week.

That came as bond market investors swapped French debt for the perceived safety of Germany and in spite of a strong batch of German industrial data which added to signs of an improving euro zone economy.

“I think there was just a load of position adjustment this morning,” said Jane Foley, a strategist with Rabobank in London.

“There has been a lot of talk about the strong data in Europe but the other backdrop is the politics. A few weeks ago, the market was convinced (conservative presidential candidate Francois) Fillon would win and that certainty has evaporated.”

A source close to Fillon said he would launch a fightback later on Monday against the fake-job scandal that has threatened to engulf his campaign.

Polls show the 62 year-old former prime minister has lost his status as favourite to win the presidency to centrist Emmanuel Macron, and that far-right leader Marine Le Pen – the chief risk for markets – has also gained ground.

PRESSURES ON DOLLAR

Equity markets, and the overall strength of U.S. economic data, continue to back the bullish dollar calls that dominated at the end of last year.

But a lack of detail on expected pro-dollar tax and spending initiatives, combined with concern over the Trump White House’s attitude to the dollar and global trade and security, has kept the currency retreating.

“I’d like to hope that we naturally go back to buying the dollar, that seems the logical argument underneath it all,” said Richard Benson, co-head of portfolio management with currency fund Millennium Global in London.

“At some point, equities in the U.S. should drag yields higher. The market is really just looking for another story.”

Signs of more inflation and better growth in Europe have helped to cool any further selling of the euro, although against that there are the worries of populist challenges in a series of elections this year.

On Sunday Le Pen began her bid to be elected president in May, promising she alone could protect the French against Islamist militants and globalisation.

German industrial orders saw the biggest monthly increase in around 2 1/2 years in December, data on Monday showed.

Speculators trimmed their bullish dollar bets for a fourth straight week through Jan. 31, with net long positions falling to their lowest since late October, according to data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission released on Friday and calculations by Reuters.

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