Giuseppe Sandro Mela.
Signore e Signori,
Si prega cortesemente di prendere atto che ora alla Casa Bianca siede Mr Trump: Mr Obama con il venti gennaio lascerà ogni carica politica finora detenuta ed esercitata.
Si prega inoltre di prendere atto che con il ventitre aprile c.a. il Presidente Hollande lascerà l’Eliseo e che la Francia avrà sia un Presidente sia un Governo privi della componente socialista.
In questa ottica leggiamo le seguenti dichiarazioni.
«Horst Seehofer, leader of Bavaria’s CSU, has ruled out governing with Angela Merkel’s CDU should they refuse to introduce an upper limit on the number of migrants entering Germany» [Fonte]
«Seehofer told reporters that the CSU would quit the “Union” bloc and go into the opposition after the election if his demands for a migration cap were not met.»
* * * * * * * *
Adesso prendiamo atto di alcune circostanze nuove.
La Germania, la sua politica immigratoria ed anche quella economica e sociale non hanno più partner internazionali di rilievo. La Germania è isolata, ed ha anche fatto sì che i pochi amici che aveva si fossero dileguati.
Ma una Germania isolata ha, ed a maggior ragione avrà in futuro, un margine di manovra minimale in seno all’Unione Europea. Non che abbia perso parti consistenti di potere: si troverà isolata in una Commissione Europea ove si vota di norma per unanimità o, al massimo, a maggioranza qualificata. Il suo voto vale tanto quanto quello dell Polonia oppure dell Repubblica Ceka.
Se poi si aggiungessero discordie interne, il peso specifico della Germania risulterebbe ulteriormente sminuito.
Che tra partito socialdemocratico ed Union corra sangue amaro è cosa nota. A seguito della sua devoluzione, l’Spd conta sempre meno ed i sui personaggi eletti sentono scricchiolare sinistramente le loro poltrone: nulla di più infausto per un uomo politico di avere la certezza di non essere più rieletto. Disperato, potrebbe anche fare colpi di testa imprevisti ed imprevedibili.
Ma ora stiamo assistendo ad un lotta intestina nell’ambito della Union. Lotta di stiletto piuttosto che di dragonessa.
Per usare una terminologia ben poco politicamente corretta, dell’immigrazione e degli immigrati ben poco interessa oramai ai politici tedeschi.
La bega sul tetto ai migranti è semplicemente un casus belli sul dominio dell’Union.
La leadership di Frau Merkel sta vistosamente vacillando, ma è ancora sufficientemente forte da poter imporre un suo certo quale primato. Ma la manfrina non può durare sine die.
Herr Seehofer ed amici le stanno sottominando il terreno su cui siede il suo trono: trono che assomiglia sempre più ad uno sgabello ogni giorno che passa.
L’ultimo avvertimento è decisamente diabolico.
«CSU would quit the “Union” bloc and go into the opposition after the election».
Volevi la cancelleria? Bene. La hai avuta? Bene. Adesso gestiscitela in minoranza.
Si direbbe una classica manovra da cardinal Mazzarino.
Con Mr Putin e Mr Trump appollaiati come avvoltoi sulle spalle della Germania.
→ Deutsche Welle. 2017-01-04. Bavarian CSU leader rejects interior minister’s security reform proposal
Horst Seehofer has blasted a proposal by the interior minister to reform security agencies. The relationship between Chancellor Merkel’s CDU and sister party CSU has grown tense over migration and security issues.
The Bavarian premier and head of the conservative Christian Social Union (CSU), Horst Seehofer, spoke out against a security proposal by German Interior Minister Thomas de Maiziere on Wednesday.
De Maiziere published a comprehensive list of suggestions on how to improve German security in an influential daily newspaper on Tuesday. One of the most drastic proposed changes: the interior minister wants to turn over the protection of the constitution to the federal government and dissolve the 16 states’ secret service agencies.
Criticism from CSU, support from Merkel
“I can only tell you: There will be no dissolution of the Bavarian agency for the protection of the constitution,” Seehofer said at the opening of a three-day conference on security policy organized by the CSU. Other prominent CSU politicians joined Seehofer in the critique.
The party’s general secretary Andreas Scheuer said the interior minister’s suggestions were “already finished, because they won’t find a majority.”
A spokesperson for Angela Merkel said on Wednesday that the chancellor had expressed support for de Maiziere’s proposals and encouraged their publication.
This is the latest disagreement between Merkel, who is also the head of her party, the Christian Democrats (CDU) and CSU head Seehofer. Their two center-right parties form the conservative “Union” bloc in the German federal parliament and usually coordinate their election campaigns. While the CSU is on the ballots only in the state of Bavaria, the CDU vies for votes in the 15 other German states.
Centrist Merkel and conservative populist Seehofer have butted heads repeatedly over migration and refugee policy. The CSU, which often takes more conservative stances than the CDU, has sharply criticized Merkel’s open-door policies that allowed more than a million people to enter the country as refugees and migrants since mid-2015.
Seehofer repeated his demand that CDU and CSU should push for a cap on migration at the CSU “security” summit in Seeon, a small town in Germany’s most southern state. While Merkel rejects such a restriction, the CSU-head insists on a limit of 200,000 refugees per year.
Refugee cap or opposition
Seehofer threatened to cancel a planned meeting with Merkel in early February that is meant to prepare the two parties for a unified campaign in the federal election in September of this year, saying that the two parties still had differences to resolve.
Seehofer told reporters that the CSU would quit the “Union” bloc and go into the opposition after the election if his demands for a migration cap were not met. But he also said that there we no substantial differences between the CDU and CSU apart from that.
CSU lawmaker Stephan Mayer promoted what he considered a possible compromise at the summit in Seeon. He suggested that Merkel and Seehofer should agree on a “breathable cap,” a limit that is adjusted every year according to the country’s capacity to take care of asylum seekers.
The debate over refugee and security policies in Germany has become more heated after an asylum seeker from Tunisia was the man suspected of killing 12 people in an attack on a Christmas market in Berlin on December 19. Ahead of the national election, many CSU and CDU politicians are worried about losing votes to the populist right-wing Alternative for Germany (AfD) that takes a hard line against migrants.
→ Deutsche Welle. 2017-01-04. Domestic security: Thomas de Maiziere’s 2017 wish list
Germany’s federal interior minister has presented “guidelines for a strong state in difficult times.” Some aspects already exist; others are doomed to fail in the face of constitutional reality.
How safe is Germany? The sense of threat has grown palpable following the terror attack at Berlin’s Christmas market. That is reflected in opinion polls and the increasingly heated debates that have taken place in the wake of the attack. One question plays a central role in both instances: Was the murder of 12 people by a suspected Islamic terrorist made easier by laws that were supposedly too soft and a state security apparatus that was insufficiently organized? Federal Minister of the Interior Thomas de Maiziere, generally considered to be measured and sober, thinks Germany needs to “better” prepare itself for trying times.
That is how the interior minister, a member of Chancellor Angela Merkel’s conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU), expressed himself in an article published under his name in Tuesday’s “Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung” (FAZ), a German national newspaper. De Maiziere examines national as well as European security structures in the article, and concludes: reforms are “required.” The core of his analysis calls for expanded federal responsibilities, which will demand that states relinquish some of theirs. Formulations such as “centrally operative crisis management” or “control competence over all security agencies” appear throughout the article.
Most measures called for prior to Berlin
However, the recent terror attack, the most serious in Germany in over 35 years, did not prompt de Maiziere’s considerations, it simply gave him a reason to group them together into a kind of list of demands. The interior minister writes that he himself had proposed most of the changes “prior to the attack.” The demands affect all authorities and areas of government concerned with defense against the threat of terror: Namely, the police and the Office for the Protection of the Constitution (BfV), Germany’s domestic intelligence agency – but also, as the minister sees it, the army. The international scope of the problem, he says, touches on the need to secure Europe’s external borders, as well as the global dimensions of the right to asylum.
De Maiziere envisions turning over protection of the constitution entirely to the federal government. That would require the dissolution of the agency’s 16 state offices. His rationale: No one intent upon attacking the constitution is interested in destroying governmental order “in one state alone.” Though this sounds plausible as a concept, it could turn out to be too complicated to be put into practice. Domestic security services are charged with more than simply defending against terror threats, they must also identify right-wing and left-wing extremist threats, and spy activities as well. Altogether, the tasks are as complex as they are regionally diverse, making it potentially impossible for the interior minister’s state counterparts to effectively help him.
Renewed attempt at domestic army deployment
Less likely still is an enhanced domestic role for the army. It is responsible for defending the country in times of war and may only be deployed domestically in exceptional cases. The army has been deployed, for instance, during natural catastrophes such as floods. In his FAZ article, de Maiziere expressly praised the fact that, “the army has been a recognized partner in disaster control for decades.”
But the minister wants more. When police are stretched to capacity, he says, soldiers should be able to be deployed to fulfill tasks such as “armed property protection.” That would mean changing the constitution, something that requires a two-thirds vote in both the lower and upper houses of parliament.
De Maiziere also wants more responsibilities for Germany’s federal police force, “which is currently limited to protecting train stations, airports and national borders.” Federal police most recently demonstrated the ability to work alongside colleagues at the state level during New Year’s Eve deployments in major cities like Cologne and Berlin. Ministry of interior spokesman Johannes Dimroth spoke of this on Monday, saying that it had become a “lived matter of fact” that the interface of state and federal responsibilities can only function if there is “good cooperation.”
A ‘mass-influx mechanism’ for the refugee crisis
Still, de Maiziere wants even more. He is calling for “central tracking and investigation responsibilities” for the federal police, to enable the “rigorous determination of illegal residency in Germany.” At first glance, this appears to be the wish with the most support. It takes aim at refugees and those denied asylum. Many such people move around or disappear completely, like suspected Berlin attacker Anis Amri. Therefore, the interior minister is asking for “supplementary enforcement jurisdiction for residency termination.” In other words: Deportations are to be organized and carried out by the federal government and not the states.
De Maiziere’s wish list is long, and he knows how difficult it will be to get just one of these measures passed in Germany. Something that will make it more difficult still is the need for European coordination. De Maiziere pointed to the introduction of an Entry/Exit System (EES), currently being fine-tuned in the European Union, as a positive example. But he thinks the system should be expanded so that it will eventually be “capable of truly recording all movement across the external borders.” In light of the large number of refugees arriving in Europe, de Maiziere is making the case for a “real mass-influx mechanism.” Although he himself is doubtful about the EU’s ability to strike refugee agreements similar to that signed with Turkey with other countries, in particular with some North African states.
What is a ‘safe third country?’
According to de Maiziere, the touchiest aspect in all this will be the EU’s asylum process guidelines. These contain certain criteria that so-called “safe third states” must fulfill. In his FAZ article, the interior minister wrote that he understands that to mean, “humane and safe conditions of admission” must be guaranteed. Nevertheless, interpretation of the issue is something that has been dividing opinions in Germany and Europe for years, and it is unlikely that anything will change in that regard any time soon. For Europe remains disunited and Germany will be voting on a new government this fall. De Maiziere’s proposals must, of course, be considered against this backdrop as well. Two weeks after the Christmas market attack in Berlin, it is more important than ever to display strength and determination when it comes to domestic security.