Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Finanza e Sistema Bancario, Unione Europea

Ecb e Weidmann. Montepaschi non finisce a tarallucci e vino.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2016-12-27.

 banchieri-106-provost-jan-la-morte-e-lavaro

Provost Jan. La Morte e l’Avaro.


Cerchiamo di ragionare.

Il Governo Italiano ha avuto l’inopinata idea di cercare di tamponare almeno i debiti più urgenti di Banca Monte Paschi Siena facendo nuovi debiti, questa volta a carico di tutti i Contribuenti.

Finché si trovino soggetti disponibili a diventare creditori dello stato italiano il Governo spera di traccheggiare. Già: finché.

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Sta però di fatto che lo schema Ponzi non funziona in eterno. Non può funzionare.

I tempi sono cambiati: qualcuno avvisi i governi e gli economisti da sbarco.

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«The head of Germany’s central bank, Jens Weidmann, has said the planned state-funded rescue of Italian lender Monte dei Paschi needs to be analyzed very carefully»

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«He fears the scheme may not comply with new EU rules»

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«The bank has been reeling from an overdose of toxic, non-performing loans»

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«It had aimed to raise 5 billion euros ($5.2 billion) from private investors for its recapitalization needs, but the lender admitted it failed to do so last week»

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«Latest calculations by the European Central Bank (ECB) revealed Monday that the lender even needed almost 4 billion euros more for an efficient recapitalization effort»

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«The European Central Bank today sent letters saying Monte Paschi may need a capital increase of as much as $8.8 billion euros ($9.2 billion), based on results of a recent stress test, the bank said in a statement»

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I tempi sono cambiati e stanno cambiando: qualcuno avvisi i governi e gli economisti da sbarco.

Il periodo storico dei governi liberals, socialisti o socialisteggianti è finito. Brexit, elezione di Mr Trump, fallimento del referendum italiano. Con il 23 aprile Mr Holland finirà nei cascami della storia: scompariranno i socialisti francesi e sarà variata profondamente la composizione della Commissione Europea, organo decisionale dell’Unione. Anche il mandato del Governatore Draghi sta volgendo al suo termine naturale e dovrà essere sostituito.

Non ci si stupisca se il prossimo Governatore di Ecb fosse Mr. Jens Weidmann, supportato da governi per nulla disposti a lasciar crescere i debiti pubblici.

Le teorie economiche del debito pubblico in crescita eterna sono state sbugiardate dai fatti: i debiti si devono pagare, eccome se si pagano!

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Quindi, nessuno si faccia la benché minima illusione.

Ma proprio nessuna.

Monte Paschi Siena ha bisogno per sopravvivere, sempre che poi ce la faccia, di 8.8 miliardi cash, subito.

Ma ha crediti in sofferenza per 36 miliardi. E se si rivedesse con attenzione il criterio con cui i crediti sono etichettati “in sofferenza“, il buco totale ammonterebbe ad oltre centoventi miliardi.

Ma non basta.

Non solo Montepaschi. PopVicenza, Veneto Banca, Carige, più le altre.

Quattro conti della serva.

Il sistema bancario italiano ha grosso modo quattrocento miliardi di crediti in sofferenza, ai quali se ne dovrebbero aggiungere altrettanti di crediti impropriamente ritenuti essere riscuotibili, ma in pratica marci  come un frassino putrefatto.

Poi ci sarebbe tutto il resto, dal debito sovrano a quello delle pubbliche amministrazioni, e così via.

In estrema sintesi.

L’epoca dei debiti attuali che ripianano i debiti pregressi sta andando a termine.

Non ci si lamenti poi se arriverà il diluvio.

 


Reuters. 2016-12-27. ECB’s Weidmann says Monte dei Paschi bailout must be carefully weighed: Bild

European Central Bank policymaker Jens Weidmann said plans for a state bailout of Italian bank Monte dei Paschi di Siena (BMPS.MI) should be weighed carefully as many questions remain to be answered, according to German newspaper Bild.

“For the measures planned by the Italian government the bank has to be financially healthy at its core. The money cannot be used to cover losses that are already expected,” Bild quoted Weidmann as saying in a summary of an article due to be published on Tuesday.

He said there must be a risk of severe economic turbulence, adding: “All this must be carefully examined.”

The Italian government approved a decree on Friday to bail out Monte dei Paschi after the world’s oldest bank failed to win investor backing for a desperately needed capital increase.

Monte dei Paschi emerged as the weakest of some 51 European banks subjected to stress tests earlier this year by the ECB. It was given until the end of the year to sort out its problems or face being wound down.

Since the 2007-09 financial crisis, the European Union has adopted rules that make state aid a last resort when it comes to helping troubled banks.

“These (rules) are meant especially to protect taxpayers and put responsibility on investors. State funds are only intended as a last resort, and that is why the bar is set high,” Weidmann, the hawkish president of Germany’s Bundesbank, told Bild.

 


Deutsche Welle. 2016-12-27. Bundesbank chief wary of Monte dei Paschi rescue plan

The head of Germany’s central bank, Jens Weidmann, has said the planned state-funded rescue of Italian lender Monte dei Paschi needs to be analyzed very carefully. He fears the scheme may not comply with new EU rules.

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Bundesbank chief Jens Weidmann told the Tuesday edition of Germany’s “Bild” newspaper that the planned rescue of the world’s oldest bank, Italy’s Monte dei Paschi di Siena, needed to be checked against possible violations of new banking sector rules EU member countries had agreed in the wake of the global financial crisis.

The bank has been reeling from an overdose of toxic, non-performing loans. It had aimed to raise 5 billion euros ($5.2 billion) from private investors for its recapitalization needs, but the lender admitted it failed to do so last week. Latest calculations by the European Central Bank (ECB) revealed Monday that the lender even needed almost 4 billion euros more for an efficient recapitalization effort.

Anticipating the bank’s failure, the government had received permission from parliament to create a 20-billion-euro rescue fund to bail out Monte dei Paschi and other ailing lenders in the southern eurozone country.

New trouble brewing

Rome said it would rescue Monte dei Paschi, but Germany’s Bundesbank chief said Tuesday he was not certain whether this should really happen the way it was being planned.

Jens Weidmann pointed out that according to the EU’s new and tighter financial rules, a state-funded rescue action was a last resort.

“If the Italian government wants to do that, it needs to prove that Monte dei Paschi is only temporarily in trouble and is in principle a healthy bank,” he argued. “Also, state money must not be used to cover any projected losses.”

Weidmann said the whole rescue plan needed to be scrutinized. “Should any state money be used to rescue the bank, it should not be paid on the basis of fresh borrowing in face of the already high debt burden in the country,” he said.

Weidmann warned that the EU’s new financial rules were first and foremost drawn up to protect taxpayers. A state-funded rescue plan for Monte dei Paschi is a very sensitive issue in the bloc because – according to the new rules in place – some 40,000 small investors would also have to make a contribution towards restoring the lender’s health. However, Italian Economics Minister Pier Carlo Padoan has promised small investors they’ll be protected.

 


Bloomberg. 2016-12-27. Bundesbank’s Weidmann Warns of Hasty Rescue for Monte Paschi

Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann said the bar should be high for government funds being used in a rescue of Italian lender Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA.

Government funds are intended as a “last resort,” Weidmann said in an interview with German newspaper Bild, with the banker adding that planned measures by the Italian government should only be directed to banks that are healthy at “their core.” If government funds are used, there should be matching public funding because of high government debt, he said.

The European Central Bank today sent letters saying Monte Paschi may need a capital increase of as much as $8.8 billion euros ($9.2 billion), based on results of a recent stress test, the bank said in a statement.

The Italian government wants to short-circuit a system European Union lawmakers spent years building to ensure that investors, not taxpayers, foot the bill for failing banks. The outlines of a rescue for Monte Paschi were announced on Dec. 22, and while some aspects remain hazy, the challenge to the EU’s efforts to sever the link between banks and states is clear.

“In principle, we have agreed on new rules,” Weidmann told the newspaper. “These should especially protect tax payers and hold investors responsible. Government funds are only provided as last resort, therefore the bar is set accordingly high.”

European Union governments used nearly 2 trillion euros ($2.1 trillion) in state aid to rescue the financial sector from 2008 to 2014. New rules enacted since the crisis make it much harder for states to step in, especially to shore up viable lenders.

Italy bailed Monte Paschi out twice after the crisis when the lender failed stress tests, posted billions of euros of losses and creaked under a mountain of bad loans.

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