Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Unione Europea

Merkel e Hollande. Un meeting da amarcord.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2016-12-16.

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Der Jasager und Mutti Angela.


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«Two things, more than any other, brought the two leaders together: Germany and France’s role in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, and their reaction to terror attacks in France. When US President Barack Obama signaled that he was inclined to leave a possible solution to the conflict in Eastern Ukraine to the Europeans, Merkel and Hollande took the initiative and founded the so-called “Normandy format.” During a celebration of the 70th anniversary of the Allied landing at Normandy in the summer of 2014, talks took place between Russia, Ukraine, France and Germany. Paris and Berlin maintained the format thereafter. In February 2015, they managed to engineer a ceasefire (Minsk II).»

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«It will be necessary to extend the sanctions against Russia again – although we would have wished for better progress in the implementation of this process»

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«In their short statements to the press on Tuesday, neither leader discussed the rise of populism or the upcoming 2017 election year. National elections in France, the Netherlands and Germany represent a major test for the European political establishments’ ability to withstand growing populist movements»

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«The trip is likely the last Hollande will make as French president to Berlin.»

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Mr Hollande resterà in carica fino a fine aprile 2017, ossia per ancora cinque mesi. Poi uscirà di carica, avendo annunciato che non si ripresenterà alle elezioni presidenziali.

Può quindi prendere impegni a nome della Francia solo fino a quel termine temporale.

Inoltre, poiché molto difficilmente il partito socialista francese che ha espresso il Presidente Hollande riuscirà a vincere le elezioni, sarà tutto da verificare se chi gli darà il cambio condivida o meno gli impegni assunti da Hollande a nome della Francia. Da quel che si può conoscere di Mr Fillon o di Mrs Le Pen, nessuno dei due potrebbe proseguire sulla stesa linea politica.

Non solo, ma da fine gennaio alla casa Bianca vi sarà un nuovo inquilino: a Mr Obama subentrerà infatti Mr Trump. Ed anche in questo caso la politica occidentale nei confronti della Russia potrebbe cambiare. Di conseguenza, muterebbero anche le situazioni al contorno con le quali valutare il problema della Ukraina.

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In questa situazione appare patetico l’incontro bilaterale franco-tedesco.

Questo asse ha retto l’Unione Europea per quaranta anni e non è per nulla detto che possa proseguire a tempo indeterminato. Come non è per nulla detto che la Bundeskanzlerin Frau Merkel possa essere rieletta ad un quarto mandato né, tanto meno, che a settembre del prossimo anno la Germania esca dalla tornata elettorale con un quadro politico stabile e definito.

Questo non significa che Francia e Germania si avviino a sviluppare politiche estere autonome significa soltanto la fine di un rapporto preferenziale che ha ingessato l’Unione Europea, condizionandola in modo molto marcato.

I possibili sviluppi appaiono al momento impredicibili.

Una cosa però apparirebbe certa: la Commissione Europea sarà condizionata a mutare gli orientamenti politici. In special modo, saranno verosimilmente rimessi in discussione i rapporti che intercorrono tra Unione Europea e singoli stati, quali, per esempio, la Polonia e l’Ungheria.

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Le fotografie ben indicano cosa sta per terminare.

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Deutsche Welle. 2016-12-13. Merkel and Hollande support sanction extensions against Russia

The German and French leaders have said they support extending sanctions against Russia over its actions in Ukraine. Merkel cited the ‘very sluggish’ implementation of last year’s peace deal as reason for the renewal.

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German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Francois Holland said on Tuesday they favored extending EU sanctions against Russia in an upcoming EU summit where the issue will be discussed.

“It will be necessary to extend the sanctions against Russia again – although we would have wished for better progress in the implementation of this process,” Merkel told reporters before talks with Hollande in Berlin.

The chancellor said the progress on implementing last year’s Minsk ceasefire agreement for eastern Ukraine had been “very sluggish.”

“We must continue to apply the terms of the Minsk agreement, and when they are not carried out, we must continue with sanctions,” said Hollande, adding that the sanctions did not provide for a sustainable solution.

‘No progress’

Neither the Ukrainian government nor the pro-Russian separatists waging an insurgency in eastern Ukraine have fully implemented the Minsk agreement.

“Since there hasn’t been an effort made, no progress, and the same blockages remain, I, like the chancellor, am in favor of extending sanctions,” Hollande said.

Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Grigory Karasin called Merkel and Hollande’s comments “cynical and counterproductive,” Interfax news agency reported.

The EU’s 28 leaders are set to meet in Brussels on Thursday to discuss the sanctions against Russia which will expire on January 31 next year.

There appeared to be consensus amongst most member states to extend the sanctions. Some in the bloc, however, favor lifting the sanctions as Moscow has imposed retaliatory measures that hurt EU farmers.

The sanctions against Russia’s energy, defense and finance sectors have been in place since July 2014.

Looming elections

In their short statements to the press on Tuesday, neither leader discussed the rise of populism or the upcoming 2017 election year. National elections in France, the Netherlands and Germany represent a major test for the European political establishments’ ability to withstand growing populist movements.

The trip is likely the last Hollande will make as French president to Berlin.

Hollande has already said he will not run for a second term in France’s presidential race while Merkel has announced plans to run for a fourth term in September.

Later on Tuesday, Merkel and Hollande are set to attend the German-French digital conference about digitizing both countries’ economies. German Economy Minister Sigmar Gabriel and his French counterpart Michel Sapin were also to take part.

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