Pubblicato in: Geopolitica Militare, Geopolitica Mondiale, Unione Europea

Mar Baltico. Ancora tensioni tra Russia, Nato ed Unione Europea.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2016-12-12.

 Kombobild Trump/Putin

Tutte le azioni volontarie umane hanno uno scopo anche se poi queste, per il principio dell’eterogenesi dei fini, generano risultati spesso ben diversi da quelli auspicati e previsti.

A seguito della situazione ukraina, la Nato decise a suo tempo di rafforzare il proprio schieramento sui confini nord dei paesi aderenti al Trattato. Un effetto secondario avrebbe dovuto essere quello di aumentare la pressione sugli stati scandinavi.

Immediata la risposta russa, con lo schieramento di missili Iskander a Kallinigrad, da cui la parte orientale dell’unione Europea sarebbe stata tenuta sotto tiro con missili di nuova generazione. Intendiamoci subito bene: non che ai russi manchino i missili balistici e le testate nucleari. Anzi. Gli Iskander però sono relativamente poco costosi e, soprattutto, potendo coprire i 400 kilometri di raggio d’azione in tempi ristrettissimi, avrebbero dato ai potenziali avversari un margine temporale di reazione oltremodo ristretto.

Il risultato finale è stato un innalzamento delle tensioni già in essere tra Russia e Nato, la generazione di grande inquietudine nei paesi scandinavi ma, sopratutto, la generazione di senso di debolezza nei paesi dell’Unione Europea che si sono trovati dall’oggi al domani sotto il tiro e sguarniti nelle difese.

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Da una parte riemerge negli europei l’angoscioso dilemma se gli americani siano o meno disposti ad una guerra totale per di difenderli. E la risposta che striscerebbe di questi tempi non sarebbe certo affermativa.

Da un’altra parte, invece, a peggiorare una situazione già di per sé deprimente, arrivano di questi giorni pesanti messaggi da parte degli Stati Uniti.

«We have many NATO members that aren’t paying their bills»

In parole povere: se i paesi membri della Nato avessero sperato di poter essere difesi senza spendere un soldo avrebbero sbagliato indirizzo. Ed anche di molto.

Su questo discorso ci sarebbe stato ben poco da ridire se non fosse per il fatto che il 2017 sarà anno elettorale in Olanda, Francia, Germania e, verosimilmente, Italia. Quattro governi pieni di debiti fino nelle coane, che dovrebbero dire ai propri elettori che si dovrebbero pagare tanti, ma tanti altri miliardi, per la difesa.

Pagare anche cifre simboliche per la difesa significherebbe dover rinunciare ad un po’ di welfare: ricetta oltremodo sicura per assicurarsi una solenne trombatura alle elezioni. Altro che essere rieletti!

Ci si pone allora una domanda.

Ma che scopo aveva allora il rafforzamento Nato nello scacchiere baltico?

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«The North Atlantic Treaty Organization plans to station a multinational force on its eastern flank by May as a deterrent following Moscow’s aggression in Ukraine»

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«But already in January, a brigade from the U.S. Army 4th Infantry Division will arrive in Germany and then move to Poland»

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«Last month, a top Russian lawmaker said the military would further deploy its S-400 air missile defense system and ballistic Iskander missiles to Kaliningrad, which Russia took control of from Germany after World War II, in order to strengthen its western border»

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«The movement put major European cities like Berlin and countries like Poland and Sweden in danger of attack since the S-400 has a range of 300 miles»

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«During an interview with the New York Times, Trump was asked what he would do if Russia crossed over into NATO allies and said he had reservations about coming to the aid of countries who “aren’t paying their bills.”»

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«We have many NATO members that aren’t paying their bills»

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«I don’t want to tell you what I’d do because I don’t want Putin to know what I’d do»

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Come si constata, sussiste certamente il problema militare, ma quello politico è di ben altra portata. L’Unione Europea non può pensare di fare lo gnorri più a lungo.

Nota.

Le giornaliste sanno conquistarsi universale disistima non perché siano femmine, ma perché sono arrivate ai posti che occupano per meriti di ogni tipo tranne che quelli professionali.

Ecco la risposta del Presidente eletto Mr Trump data ad una balda ex-giovanotta che avrebbe voluto a tutti i costi fare uno scoop, dall’alcova al Premio Pulitzer:

«I don’t want to tell you what I’d do because I don’t want Putin to know what I’d do»

Roba da suicidarsi. Femmine a casa a fare la calza, sempre che intellettualmente ci arrivino.


KyivPost. 2016-12-10. Wall Street Journal: Russia’s buildup in Kaliningrad to test Donald Trump on NATO

By Wall Street Journal. Published Dec. 9 at 4:18 pm

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KALININGRAD, Russia – Military maneuvering here in the Baltic region by Russia and NATO presents a challenge for President-elect Donald Trump and his commitment to America’s European allies.

The North Atlantic Treaty Organization plans to station a multinational force on its eastern flank by May as a deterrent following Moscow’s aggression in Ukraine. But already in January, a brigade from the U.S. Army 4th Infantry Division will arrive in Germany and then move to Poland – before Inauguration Day, according to U.S. military officials.

[Pubblicato parzialmente causa il copyright]


IBT. 2016-12-10. Russia, Putin Testing Donald Trump On NATO? US Troops To Head To Eastern Europe In January Russia

President-elect Donald Trump, his transition team and the North Atlanta Treaty Organization (NATO) are reportedly being tested by Russia and its President Vladimir Putin as it continues to reinforce troops and missile systems in the Kaliningrad exclave in the Baltic region, the Wall Street Journal reported Friday.

U.S. military officials told the Journal that while NATO has plans to send a multinational force to the east in response to Russia’s actions in Ukraine in May, the Army 4th Infantry Division will be in Germany and Poland in January before Trump takes office. From there, the U.S. force will disperse one battalion back to Germany, one will stay in the Baltic States and a third will head to Romania.

The test for Trump lies in Kaliningrad’s geographic position — nestled directly between NATO members Lithuania and Poland to the southeast of the Baltic Sea — and Russia’s recent air and missile defense build-up in the region.

Last month, a top Russian lawmaker said the military would further deploy its S-400 air missile defense system and ballistic Iskander missiles to Kaliningrad, which Russia took control of from Germany after World War II, in order to strengthen its western border.

The movement put major European cities like Berlin and countries like Poland and Sweden in danger of attack since the S-400 has a range of 300 miles.

Trump’s campaign rhetoric regarding NATO will again take center stage as Putin and his government feel out the first-time elected official. During an interview with the New York Times, Trump was asked what he would do if Russia crossed over into NATO allies and said he had reservations about coming to the aid of countries who “aren’t paying their bills.”

“I don’t want to tell you what I’d do because I don’t want Putin to know what I’d do. I have a serious chance of becoming president and I’m not like Obama, that every time they send some troops into Iraq or anyplace else, he has a news conference to announce it,” Trump said. “We have many NATO members that aren’t paying their bills.”

Trump added: “You can’t forget the bills. They have an obligation to make payments. Many NATO nations are not making payments, are not making what they’re supposed to make. That’s a big thing. You can’t say forget that.”

Along the campaign trail, Trump was accused of perhaps being too cozy or indirectly friendly with Putin. Those accusations were magnified following hacks perpetrated by Russia against the Democratic Party and seen as pro-Trump. The president-elect, Now, who is set to take the Oath of Office in about six weeks, has denied any ties to Russia both before and after he won the election.

 


IBT. 2016-12-10. Russia Aims Missiles At Europe? Moscow Bolsters Air Defense System In Baltic Region Near Poland

Russia intends to increase its air and missile defense in the Baltic Region, where strikes could reach major European cities, in response to the U.S. and NATO’s new missile defense system deployed earlier this year, a top Russian lawmaker said Monday.

“To counter these threats, we will be forced to strengthen our air and missile defenses in the western vector and to deploy additional means to defend the relevant command-and-control infrastructure,” Viktor Ozerov, chairman of the Federation Council Committee on Defense and Security, told RIA News agency in an interview, according to Reuters.

Ozerov, who heads the top defense committee in the upper house of Russia’s parliament, said the military will roll out its S-400 air missile defense system and ballistic Iskander missiles in the Kaliningrad enclave to strengthen its western borders.

Kaliningrad, which was annexed by the then-Soviet Union from Germany following World War II, sits between Lithuania and Poland in the southeast of the Baltic Sea, a key military stronghold that would allow the missiles to reach major European cities.

With a 300-mile range, the S-400 is capable of hitting targets from both short and long distances, putting cities like Berlin, as well as Poland and Sweden in danger if fired.

Though Russia and the US have seen diplomatic relations erode over the last year for various reasons – the Syrian civil war and alleged meddling by Russia in this month’s U.S. presidential election – the fresh deployment of air and missile defense systems is technically a delayed response considering the U.S. and NATO launched the Aegis ashore system in May.

That system was announced almost a decade ago, and the U.S. has said it’s strictly been installed to protect itself and allies from countries like Iran, not Russia. Developed by contractor Lockheed Martin, the Aegis system, under NATO’s command and capable of simultaneously hitting targets on land, at sea and other ships, is located in Deveselu, Romania. Construction began on another facility in Poland a day after the Romanian installation was announced.

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