Pubblicato in: Geopolitica Asiatica, Geopolitica Mondiale, Senza categoria

Trump telefona a Duterte. Entente Cordiale. Realpolitik.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2016-12-07.

 asia-sud-est-001

Basterebbe una occhiata superficiale alla carta geografica per comprendere l’importanza strategica delle Filippine.

Questa isola separa il Mare Meridionale della Cina dall’Oceano Pacifico. Il passaggio è obbligato attraverso alcuni stretti molto facilmente controllabili.

Chi dominasse le Filippine dominerebbe sia il Mar Cinese del Sud sia buona parte dell’Oceano Pacifico: non a caso alla fine dell’800 gli americani condussero una sanguinosissima guerra per prenderne possesso. Dominio che restò incontrastato anche dopo che le Filippine si conquistarono la propria indipendenza.

Senza il controllo delle Filippine non sarebbe stata possibile la guerra in Vietnam.

Abbiamo aspettato qualche giorno a dare la notizia della telefonata di Mr Trump a Mr Duterte per osservare meglio le reazioni. La Cina non si è opposta. Per il momento si accontenta di ciò che ha raggiunto.

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Negli ultimi anni la Cina ha aumentato la sua presenza militare nel Mare Meridionale della Cina costruendosi isole artificiali, subito munite di scali portuali ed aeroporti, e munite da un congruo numero di missili terra-aria e terra-mare.

Ne è scaturita una bega colossale.

Essendo isole artificiali dovrebbero appartenere a chi le ha costruite, anche tenendo conto che esse sono state erette in acque internazionali: questa almeno è la versione della Cina. Per tutti gli altri la versione è semplicemente opposta.

Sicuramente da un punto di vista militare le isole sono bersagli fissi, quindi facilmente colpibili, anche se la contraerea potrebbe far pagare scotti severi ad eventuali attaccanti. Per un attaccante, in ogni caso, sono una ben scomoda realtà. In ogni caso, il Mar Cinese del Sud non è più un lago americano.

In conclusione, sembrerebbe lecito asserire che siano opere quanto mai scomode. L’amministrazione Obama se le è viste nascere sotto il naso incapace di qualsiasi reazione politica ovvero militare: ma adesso che ci sono non sarebbe possibile non tenerne conto.

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In questo contesto, sia pur sinteticamente riassunto, si colloca il deterioramento delle relazioni politiche, economiche e militari tra le Filippine e gli Stati Uniti, che non gradiscono per nulla né la forma di governo che i filippini si sono eletti né il netto rifiuto che esse hanno opposto alla loro visione etica e morale, né infine al fatto che il Presidente Duterte abbia lanciato una severissima campagna per il contenimento della diffusione della droga nel suo paese. A questo proposito, Duterte non ha fatto altro che passare il reato di spaccio degli stupefacenti a livello amministrativo: in parole povere, la polizia giustizia tutti gli spacciatori che trova. Invece dei circa diecimila morti annuali per droga ce ne sono quattromila circa di spacciatori, che per ovvi motivi non potranno più spacciare stupefacenti. Fa anche specie che un’Amministrazione dichiaratamente pro-aborto, decine di milioni di assassinii negli ultmi anni, cavilli sulla morte di qualche spacciatore di droga.

L’Amministrazione Obama ha incentrato su questo punto un severo contenzioso con le Filippine, e queste hanno semplicemente iniziato a rivolgersi alla Cina ed alla Russia, per concludere accordi politici, economici e militari.

Un incidente mortale su sei causato dalla marijuana.

Cina. Tolleranza zero con pubblici dipendenti drogati.

Filippine. Abbandonerebbero l’Occidente alleandosi con Russia e Cina.

Philippines’ Duterte wants to ‘open alliances’ with Russia, China

Philippine president threatens to exit UN over drug campaign criticism.

Philippines’ Rodrigo Duterte threatens to leave UN.

Philippines war on drugs: ‘1,900 killed’ amid crackdown

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La possibilità concreta che le Filippine cambino schieramento è tutt’altro che remota, anzi. Con tutte le conseguenze geopolitiche facilmente intuibili.

«In five months in office, Duterte has upended Philippine foreign policy by berating the US, making overtures towards historic rival China and pursuing a new alliance with Russia»

Così, gli americani, che non avevamo avuto remora morale alcuna ad appoggiare il regime di Ngo Dinh Diem oppure del generale Pinochet, corrono adesso il serio rischio di perdere le Filippine perché sono omofobe e non tollerano più a lungo la diffusione delle droghe sul loro territorio. Ed anche perché sono stanche di dover sopportare le bizze di Amministrazioni con le idee confuse.

Di questi giorni la notizia che Mr Trump, il presidente eletto, ha telefonato direttamente a Mr Duterte.

«10 minuti di telefonata tra Donald Trump e il presidente delle Filippine Rodrigo Duterte: la conversazione si è conclusa con un invito alla Casa Bianca ».

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«US President-elect Donald Trump has invited Philippine leader Rodrigo Duterte to the White House next year during a “very engaging, animated” phone conversation»

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Un briciolo di Realpolitik sta facendo capolino anche nel cielo di Washington.

Apriti Cielo!

Le sinistre di ogni tipo e razza sono insorte come un sol uomo, condannando il fatto a nome di “tutto l’Occidente“.

Tutto l’Occidente“?

A quanto risulterebbe il partito democratico è stato sonoramente battuto nelle ultime elezioni presidenziali negli Stati Uniti. Né sembrerebbe che i socialisti stiano poi molto meglio in Francia, donde stanno per essere scacciati ed anche in malo modo, né in Germania, ove hanno regolarmente perso larghe fette di elettorato nelle ultime cinque elezioni nei Länder.

Le sinistre al momento assommano a meno di un terzo degli Elettori dell’Occidente, e l’Occidente a meno di un sesto della popolazione del mondo.

E costoro, i perdenti, gli sconfitti, si arrogherebbero il diritto di parlare a nome dell’Occidente?

Fate Voi.

Nota.

Si è perfettamente consci che tutti coloro che vivono lucrando sul traffico illegale di stupefacenti odiano Mr Duterte, che scombina in modo radicale i loro affari. Si comprendono meno facilmente tutti coloro che pur non lucrando alcunché si scandalizzano dell’operato di Mr Duterte: piangono qualche spacciaore morto e non hanno nessuna pietà delle vittime della droga. È in corso una guerra, ed il presidente delle Filippine cerca di tutelare il proprio popolo. Ha finaco la mano leggera.

 


Rai News. 2016-12-03. Trump invita Duterte alla Casa Bianca. Il Presidente filippino insultò Obama: “Figlio di p…”.

Duterte è conosciuto come “Punitore” dei drogati, da quando è presidente la polizia sta facendo una lotta senza quartiere che ha fatto registrare oltre 3 mila vittime, e per aver insultato leader mondiali

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10 minuti di telefonata tra Donald Trump e il presidente delle Filippine Rodrigo Duterte: la conversazione si è conclusa con un invito alla Casa Bianca. Come di consuetudine, il neo presidente Usa sta chiamando tutti i leader mondiali prima della sua investitura ufficiale prevista il 20 gennaio 2017. A seguire da quella data, Trump potrà iniziare a ricevere ospiti alla White House. L’invito a Duterte, però, ha scatenato forti polemiche, che vanno ad aggiungersi a quelle di Pechino provocate da un’altra telefonata avvenuta tra Trump e il presidente di Taiwan, Tsai Ying-Wen. L’incontro mai avvenuto con Obama Duterte si sarebbe dovuto incontrare con Barack Obama in Laos, ma l’evento fu annullato in seguito alle parole offensive che il presidente filippino pronunciò durante un comizio: “Obama è un figlio di puttana”. Forte dell’investitura popolare, reduce da una campagna elettorale aggressiva, Duterte si è persino paragonato al führer dicendo che sarebbe felice di far uccidere tre milioni di tossicodipendenti proprio come il dittatore naturalizzato tedesco fece con gli ebrei. Oltre a prendere come modello lo sterminio commesso da Adolf Hitler, il presidente delle Filippine ha spesso criticato Europa e Stati Uniti. “Sono degli ipocriti quando criticano la mia campagna anti-droga”, azioni di polizia nella quale sono già morte tremila persone al di fuori di ogni procedura giudiziaria. Duterte, 71 anni, ha vinto le elezioni a maggio dopo essere stato per un ventennio sindaco di Davao. Sta mantenendo le sue promesse: “una lotta spietata al narcotraffico nella quale almeno 100mila persone dovranno morire”. L’ondata di violenza poliziesca con la quale sta cercando di mantenere quanto dichiarato in campagna elettorale ha suscitato lo sdegno del mondo occidentale.

 


Aljazeera. 2016-12-03. Philippines’ Rodrigo Duterte ‘gets Donald Trump invite’

Top aide describes seven-minute phone call between the two presidents as “very engaging” and “animated”.

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US President-elect Donald Trump has invited Philippine leader Rodrigo Duterte to the White House next year during a “very engaging, animated” phone conversation, according to a Duterte aide.

Trump’s brief chat with the Duterte comes during a period of uncertainty about one of America’s most important Asian alliances, marked by Duterte’s hostility towards the US and his repeated threats to sever decades-old defence ties.

The call lasted just over seven minutes, Christopher Go, Duterte’s special adviser, announced on Friday.

Trump’s transition team had no immediate comment.

In his five months in office, Duterte has caused a stir by criticising the US, cursing President Barack Obama, making overtures towards China and pursuing a new alliance with Russia.

His diplomacy has created nervousness among some Asian countries, wary about China’s rising influence and America’s staying power as a regional counterbalance.

Duterte has praised China and told Obama to “go to hell” and called him a “son of a bitch” whom he would humiliate if he visited the Philippines.

The anger was unlocked after Obama expressed concern about possible human rights abuses in Duterte’s war on drugs.

Duterte had initially expressed optimism about having Trump in the Oval Office, saying he no longer wanted quarrels. But it has not tempered his rhetoric and he has continued to rail at what he calls US “hypocrisy” and “bullying”.

In an interview with Reuters news agency during the election campaign, Trump said Duterte’s comments showed “a lack of respect for our country”.

‘Trump of the East’

Sometimes referred to as the “Trump of the East” because of his blunt remarks, Duterte has threatened repeatedly to sever US-Philippine defence ties, saying he “hates” having foreign soldiers in his country.

Joint military exercises look set to be scaled back next year, as Duterte demanded, including the number of US troops involved.

A question mark hangs over a defence agreement, which allows US forces access to Philippine bases on a troop rotation basis.

A source who has advised Trump’s transition team on security policy told Reuters news agency last week that Trump would start a “clean slate” with the Philippines.

“He is perfectly capable of talking to Duterte in an open way without being wedded to previous policy failures,” the source said of Trump.

Duterte caused a stir when he visited China in October and announced his “separation” from the US.

He has said the US could not be trusted to support the Philippines if it were attacked, as mandated in a joint defence treaty.

Some experts, however, say Duterte’s appointment of special envoys to Washington suggest that despite his hostility, he intends to keep good ties.

Among those envoys is Jose Antonio, a multi-millionaire real-estate tycoon who bought the rights to name a new office tower in Manila “Trump Towers”.

 


The Guardian. 2016-12-03. Philippines’ deadly drug war praised by Donald Trump, says Rodrigo Duterte

Philippines leader says US president-elect felt drug war which has killed thousands was being fought ‘the right way’

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US President-elect Donald Trump has praised Philippines leader Rodrigo Duterte for his controversial war on drugs in which thousands have died, Duterte said on Saturday following a phone call between the leaders.

The Philippine president called Trump on Friday evening to congratulate him on his victory and Trump wished him “success” in his controversial crackdown, in which 4,800 people have been killed since June, according to Duterte.

“He was quite sensitive also to our worry about drugs. And he wishes me well … in my campaign and he said that … we are doing it as a sovereign nation, the right way,” Duterte said in a statement.

An aide to the Philippines president earlier said Trump invited him to the White House next year during a “very engaging, animated” phone conversation.

The call lasted just over seven minutes, Duterte’s special adviser, Christopher Go, said in a text message to media that gave few details.

A statement from Trump’s team said Duterte congratulated the US president-elect and the two men “noted the long history of friendship and cooperation between the two nations, and agreed that the two governments would continue to work together closely on matters of shared interest and concern”. The statement, however, made no mention of an invitation.

Trump’s brief chat with the firebrand Philippine president follows a period of uncertainty about one of Washington’s most important Asian alliances, stoked by Duterte’s hostility towards President Barack Obama and repeated threats to sever decades-old defence ties.

In five months in office, Duterte has upended Philippine foreign policy by berating the US, making overtures towards historic rival China and pursuing a new alliance with Russia.

His diplomacy has created jitters among Asian countries wary of Beijing’s rising influence and Washington’s staying power as a regional counterbalance.

Duterte has praised China and told Obama to “go to hell” and called him a “son of a bitch” whom he would humiliate if he visited the Philippines.

The anger was unleashed after Obama expressed concern about human rights abuses in Duterte’s war on drugs, in which thousands have died.

Duterte initially expressed optimism about having Trump in the Oval Office, saying he no longer wanted quarrels. But he has continued to rail against US “hypocrisy” and “bullying”.

Trump told Reuters during the election campaign that Duterte’s comments showed “a lack of respect for our country”. But he also stressed the “very important strategic location” of the Philippines and blamed Obama for failing to take the time to get to know world leaders.

A source who has advised Trump’s transition team on security policy told Reuters last week the president-elect would start a “clean slate” with Duterte, and analysts see some similarities in their blunt style.

Duterte caused a stir when he visited China in October and announced his “separation” from the US. He has said Washington could not be trusted to support the Philippines if it were attacked, as mandated in a joint defence treaty.

In an article published just before the US election, Trump advisers Peter Navarro and Alex Gray blamed the breakdown on the Obama administration’s failure to intervene in 2012 when China seized the Scarborough Shoal in the South China Sea, which the Philippines considers its fishing ground.

“Washington’s utter failure to uphold its obligations to a longtime, pivotal ally during one of its most humiliating crises has no doubt contributed to [Duterte’s] low opinion of American security guarantees – and his recent move toward a China alliance,” they wrote.

Some experts say Duterte’s appointment of special envoys to Washington suggest he aims to keep good ties.

Among the envoys is multi-millionaire real estate tycoon Jose Antonio, who bought the rights to name a new office tower in Manila “Trump Towers”.

US State Department spokesman John Kirby said he did not know whether the department had assisted in setting up Trump’s call with Duterte, but stood ready to provide such help.

Philippines expert Ernest Bower of the Bower Group Asia consultancy said it was likely the call was facilitated by Trump’s business partners in the Philippines and a core group of advisers, who include his children.

Bower said Trump’s election victory could offer Duterte a face-saving way to move back from his anti-US rhetoric, while Duterte could provide Trump with a way to stress the importance of Asian alliances, which he appeared to question during the campaign.

Murray Hiebert of the Center for Strategic and International Studies noted that the Philippines would be chairing the 10-member Association of South-east Asian Nations (Asean) next year and it was common for the US to extend an invitation to the chair before the US-Asean summit.

Bower said this may have been fortuitous on Trump’s part.

“My guess is he was more interested in making a point – that he could deal with Duterte in ways Obama couldn’t – than in the strategic wisdom of driving alignment with the Asean chair ahead of the Asean and East Asian summits.”

 


The New York Times. 2016-12-03. Rodrigo Duterte Says Donald Trump Endorses His Violent Antidrug Campaign

MANILA — President Rodrigo Duterte of the Philippines said on Saturday that President-elect Donald J. Trump had endorsed his brutal antidrug campaign, telling Mr. Duterte that the Philippines was conducting it “the right way.”

Mr. Duterte, who spoke with Mr. Trump by telephone on Friday, said Mr. Trump was “quite sensitive” to “our worry about drugs.”

“He wishes me well, too, in my campaign, and he said that, well, we are doing it as a sovereign nation, the right way,” Mr. Duterte said.

There was no immediate response from Mr. Trump to Mr. Duterte’s description of the phone call, and his transition team could not be reached for comment.

Since his election last month, Mr. Trump has held a series of unscripted calls with foreign leaders, several of which have broken radically from past American policies and diplomatic practice. A call on Friday with the president of Taiwan, Tsai Ing-wen, appeared to be out of sync with four decades of United States policy toward China and prompted a Chinese call to the White House.

Mr. Duterte has led a campaign against drug abuse in which he has encouraged the police and others to kill people they suspect of using or selling drugs. Since he took office in June, more than 2,000 people have been killed by the police in what officers describe as drug raids, and the police say several hundred more have been killed by vigilantes.

The program has been condemned by the United States, the United Nations, the European Union and others for what rights organizations have characterized as extrajudicial killings. In rejecting such criticism from the United States this fall, Mr. Duterte called Mr. Obama a “son of a whore.”

In a summary of the phone call with Mr. Trump released by Mr. Duterte’s office on Saturday morning, Mr. Duterte said the two had spoken for just a few minutes but covered many topics, including the antidrug campaign.

“I could sense a good rapport, an animated President-elect Trump,” Mr. Duterte said. “And he was wishing me success in my campaign against the drug problem.”

Mr. Duterte added: “He understood the way we are handling it, and I said that there’s nothing wrong in protecting a country. It was a bit very encouraging in the sense that I supposed that what he really wanted to say was that we would be the last to interfere in the affairs of your own country.”

Mr. Duterte, who has said he was seeking “a separation” from the United States, a longtime ally, and has threatened to bar American troops from his country, also said, “We assured him of our ties with America.” He did not elaborate on that comment.

Mr. Duterte also said that Mr. Trump had invited him to visit New York and Washington, and that Mr. Trump said he wanted to attend the summit meeting of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations next year in the Philippines.

Mr. Duterte has often been compared to Mr. Trump for his blunt speech and populist positions.

“I appreciate the response that I got from President-elect Trump, and I would like to wish him success,” Mr. Duterte said. “He will be a good president for the United States of America.”

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