Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Finanza e Sistema Bancario, Unione Europea

Sentix. Gli investitori. Euro morto entro un anno. Probabilità 24.1%.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2016-12-01.

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«The sentix EBI [Euro Break-Index] increases to 24.1%.»

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«Investors are more and more worried about Italy»

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«The perceived euro exit probability jumps to 19.3% which marks the highest level since the inception of the sentix EBI survey»

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«The overall rise to a likelihood of 24.1% that a euro member country quits the union in the next 12 months, reinforces the notion that a surprisingly strong anti-euro sentiment has evolved during 2016»

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Se è ragionevole ammettere che è più facile che si verifichi un evento probabile rispetto ad uno improbabile, è altrettanto vero che una cosa è il livello di probabilità ed un’altra che si attui. Nulla vieta che si verifichi anche l’evento meno probabile.

È infatti comune esperienza come eventi altamente improbabili si possano verificare, mentre all’opposto eventi fortemente probabili non si verifichino affatto. Un terremoto, per esempio.

In parole semplicissime: nessuno sa prevedere il futuro.

Ci si dovrebbe accontentare della ragionevolezza e della verosimiglianza.

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Tutti questi discorsi inviterebbero a valutare ciò che accade con prudenza.

La prudenza è quella virtù in accordo alla quale si stipulano assicurazioni contro eventi avversi, anche improbabili, con la speranza che mai abbiano a verificarsi.

Una cosa è essere catastrofisti, ed una totalmente differente è essere guardinghi e prudenti.

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Orbene, quando una significativa quota di investitori paventa la concreta possibilità che l’Euro si disgreghi entro un anno, buon senso imporrebbe di mettere in essere delle ragionevoli precauzioni.

Anzi, si potrebbe anche dire che dovrebbe essere preoccupante il solo fatto che simile ipotesi sia presa in considerazione.

L’Unione Europea vede arrivare al pettine una lunga serie di problemi irrisolti da lunga pezza. Problemi acuiti anche dal fatto che Unione Europea ed Eurozona non coincidono.

Ma al di là dei problemi politici ed economici l’aspetto forse più preoccupante è la debolezza strutturale dell’Unione Europea, il cui metodo di governace è assurdamente complesso, deresponsabilizzato, sostanzialmente incapace sia si dare direttive inequivocabili sia di farle attuare.

Prima di votare al referendum leggete come funziona l’Unione Europea.

In questo periodo di triboli, di grandi sconvolgimenti politici, il vuoto direzionale in seno all’Unione Europea lascia la Banca Centrale esposta e vulnerabile, ultimo baluardo a salvaguardia di un sistema avviato se non al tracollo a grandiose modificazioni.

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Nei periodi di crisi, nulla è più deleterio della vacanza dell’unità di intenti e di comando.


Sentix. 2016-11-29. It is high time!

The closer we approach the December 4th, the more does the Italian referendum occupy the minds of investors. Fears of more trouble in the Eurozone mount as Italy takes the spotlight in our monthly Euro Break-Index (EBI) survey. Surprisingly, Investors do not exclusively pick Italy as a potential exit candidate. Moreover, exit probabilities of many euro member countries are on the rise. Especially France and the Netherlands join ranks with Italy. The sentix EBI increases to 24.1%.

Investors are more and more worried about Italy. The perceived euro exit probability jumps to 19.3% which marks the highest level since the inception of the sentix EBI survey. Foremost, the massive decline of the Italian Target 2 balance (-345 billion Euro as of 30.09.2016) which hints toward capital flight, as well as the apparent weakness of the Italian Banking System (e.g. Unicredito and Generali), threaten the stability of the Eurozone. With the day of the constitutional referendum approaching, not only the political future of Premier Matteo Renzi is at stake – it is high time.

Typically only a single country occupies investors’ attention. This time is different. Unfortunately, we measure a significant increase in perceived exit probabilities across many member countries and, in particular for France. The French Index hits with 4.75% a new all-time-high. Even the Index for the Netherlands rises to 3.4% (refer to the chart below).

The overall rise to a likelihood of 24.1% that a euro member country quits the union in the next 12 months, reinforces the notion that a surprisingly strong anti-euro sentiment has evolved during 2016. Moreover, Brexit increased overall risk levels.

The sentix contagion risk Index mirrors this development, alike. The Contagion Risk Index exhibits strong momentum.

«The sentix Euro Breakup Index is published on a monthly basis and was launched in June 2012. Its poll is running for two days around the fourth Friday of each month. Results are regularly published on the following Tuesday morning. Survey participants may choose up to three euro-zone member states of which they think they will quit the currency union within the next twelve months. Further details on the sentix Euro Breakup Index can be found on http://ebr.sentix.de.
This month’s reading of 24.1% means that currently, this percentage of all surveyed investors expect the euro to break up within the next twelve months. The EBI has reached its high at 73% in July 2012 and touched its low at 7.6% in July 2014.

The current poll in which 1,036 institutional and retail investors participated was conducted from November, 24th to November, 26th 2016.»


Deutsche Welle. 2016-11-29. More investors expect euro breakup

A poll by an investment consultancy has shown that more investors than ever consider a breakup of the eurozone likely in the next 12 months. Italy’s woes are in focus, but it’s not the only potential trouble spot.

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Presenting its latest monthly eurozone barometer, consultancy Sentix said Tuesday investors were more and more worried about Italy, fearing that a “no” vote in a constitutional referendum on Sunday could trigger a political and economic crisis with far-reaching consequences for the future of the euro area.

The Sentix barometer for this month showed that nearly one in five institutional investors (19.3 percent) thought Italy’s exit from the euro was likely, marking the highest probability level since the inception of the index in June 2012.

“Euro breakup fears are coming back with a vengeance,” Sentix Managing Director Manfred Hübner said in a statement, pointing to investors’ worries about ailing Italian banks.

Growing concerns

Mote dei Paschi di Siena (MPS), Italy’s most troubled bank, saw its stock value tumble by another 15 percent at the beginning of the week, while share prices for UniCredit, the nation’s largest lender by assets, were down 4 percent.

The “Financial Times” reported said recapitalization plans for a total of eight Italian banks were likely to fail with a “no” referendum vote, because an ensuing crisis would sap investors’ confidence in the Italian economy.

“Typically, only a single country occupies investors’ attention [in the Sentix poll],” the consultancy said. “This time it’s different; we measure a significant increase in perceived eurozone exit probabilities across many member countries, particularly in France and the Netherlands.”

The index’ overall eurozone breakup probability reading rose to 24.1 percent this moth, “reinforcing the notion that a surprisingly strong anti-euro sentiment has evolved during 2016.”

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