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Germania. Große Koalition kaputt. Thinking the Unthinkable.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

216-11-23.

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Si iniziò con quello straordinario lavoro di Fermi, Pasta, Ulam «Studies of nonlinear problems» per arrivare a quando Bradley Efron pubblicò il lavoro che gli dette fama dandogli come titolo «Computers and the Theory of Statistics: Thinking the Unthinkable».

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L’umanità era assuefatta a pensare in termini semplici.

Il futuro replicherà il passato, cambiato qualche elemento formale. Di qui tutta una ridda di astruse teorie che avrebbero preteso di poter prevedere il futuro sulla scorta degli andamenti passati. Fu un colossale buco nell’acqua: il futuro rimase imprevedibile. Solo i climatologi politicizzati continuano a sostenere che nel 2150 il mondo brucerà: tanto, chi mai potrebbe smentirli ora? A quella data saremo tutti morti. Peccato solo che sulla base di simili strampalatezze mungano al Contribuente centinaia di miliardi.

Se prevedere il futuro fosse realmente possibile tutti si sarebbero più che arricchiti in borsa: cosa che non è. Anche i più sofisticati sistemi hanno fallito, facendo perdere cifre da capogiro. Le illusioni si pagano ed a carissimo prezzo.

Certamente si può pensare in termini probabilistici. È più verosimile che accada un qualcosa di probabile piuttosto che un qualcosa di improbabile. Ma questo è vero solo e soltanto in termini medi. Anche ciò che sia infinitamente improbabile è pur sempre possibile. Probabile e possibile non sono sinonimi.

«Thinking the Unthinkable».

Pensiamoci bene. La vera novità consiste in qualcosa che prima non era nemmeno pensabile. Siano queste le teorie di Fermi, Pasta, Ulam oppure di Efron, ovvero emergenze sperimentali. L’esperimento di Ørsted è un caso da manuale.

Ma non ci si creda che il comportamento umano sia poi molto dissimile dagli esempi su riportati.

La Germania è un ottimo laboratorio politico. Pochi erano riusciti ad intravedere ciò che ai più era impensato ed impensabile.

I prodromi c’erano, eccome. Ma parevano outliers.

In tutto l’Occidente la devoluzione del socialismo ideologico avrebbe dovuto essere evidente. La sua Weltanschauung non riusciva più ad interpretare il passato ed il presente, e quindi a prevedere ragionevolmente il futuro.

Ma crollava uno dei dogmi socialisti: quello di attirare i voti degli elettori.

Si era formato il mito che i socialisti, termine che raggruppa una larga serie di sigle caratterizzate dal fatto di essere ideologizzate, avrebbero sempre ottenuto una larga maggioranza nel voto a suffragio universale.

Ma pensando l’impensabile, questo caposaldo del pensiero politico si è dimostrato essere inconsistente. Ne sa qualcosa Mrs Hillary Clinton.

L’enunciato secondo cui pochi illuminati avrebbero sempre potuto pilotare il voto popolare si è dimostrato includente.

A fronte di una tale enormità, la sinistre avevano continuato a pensare in modo vecchio.

Sarebbero emersi dei “populisti” che avrebbe manipolato il consenso meglio di quanto non avessero fatto i socialisti. Errore pacchiano, scambiare il soggetto per l’oggetto e viceversa.

Non sono stati i partiti emergenti di “destra” a garantirsi una larga fetta di elettorato scalzando quelli di “sinistra“. Sono stati i Cittadini Elettori a reclamare e votare chiunque non fosse di sinistra.

Gli elettori non ne possono proprio più di una Weltanschauung vessatoria al limite del dittatoriale. Ma se le sinistre hanno miseramente fallito in economia, si sono suicidate nel momento in cui sono andate ad intaccare i classici valori tradizionali della religione, delle tradizioni e della cultura nazionale, del retaggio storico, dei valori della famiglia. Ma il coup de grâce, Gnadenschuss, oppure  Finishing Stroke, il colpo di grazia è stato il tentativo di imporre la cultura del gender ed il politicamente corretto a delle popolazioni che proprio non ne volevano sapere, che le subivano come atto di prevaricazione del potere.

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Adesso la cultura e la politica socialista, quella di “sinistra” è in rotta ovunque. Ancora attonita e sorpresa che fosse accaduto l’inimmaginabile, ovviamente per loro.

La rinascita del Front National in Francia, Pegida ed AfD in Germania, M5S in Italia, Fpö in Austria. Poi l’uppercut del brexit ed infine il knockdown dell’elezione di Mr Trump a Presidente degli Stati Uniti.

I socialdemocratici tedeschi assomigliano a pesci fuor d’acqua, che stanno annaspando disperatamente in cerca di una improbabile salvezza. Stanno reagendo con la furia del maiale selvatico che si sente braccato. E mica solo loro. Anche la Cdu, che da decenni ha imboccato più o meno volontariamente la strada socialista, ha una paura becca.

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«The center-left Social Democrats insist they’re not interested in a continuation of the current grand coalition in which they’re junior partners to the conservatives»

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«Mrs. Merkel has no answers to the real problems facing our country»

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«With Merkel now certain as the conservative candidate, the pressure on the SPD has now been increased»

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«The SPD presented a 71-page “impulse paper” at their press conference, which included abstract initiatives to reduce taxes for poorer Germans, increase government support for families and eradicate inequalities in the healthcare system»

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«But it’s an open question whether or not that will appeal to an electorate in times when right-wing populism and rejection of so-called “elites” is on the rise»

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«Merkel bears a significant part of the responsibility for the deep crisis of democracy in our country»

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«But even if the three parties did agree, there is no guarantee that a tripartite alliance would achieve a parliamentary majority – together they are currently polling 43 to 44 percent in opinion surveys»

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«Merkel …. A politician who caused the dangerous chaos in migration, which has cost billions, is putting herself up for re-election»

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«The AfD currently gets between 10 and 15 percent in opinion surveys, although the results of the Brexit vote in the United Kingdom and the US presidential election suggest that polls underestimate actual support for right-wing populists»

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L’ultima frase è la chiave di volta di tutto il sistema.

La Germania si candida alla ingovernabilità.

Impossibile un governo di sinistra, il rosso-rosso-verde, impossibile una riedizione della Große Koalition, al momento impensabile un governo Union – AfD.

«Thinking the Unthinkable».

Gli elettori diano una maggioranza in Austria all’Fpö, in Francia a Mrs Le Pen, ed in Germania ad AfD.

Una replica esatta di ciò che è successo con il brexit e con l’elezione di Mr Trump.


Deutsche Welle. 2016-11-23. SPD, other parties under pressure after Merkel announcement

They say she’s beatable, but does anyone have a plan to topple the Chancellor? The Social Democrats need to put forward a candidate and provide a real alternative; it won’t be easy. Jefferson Chase reports from Berlin.

The center-left Social Democrats insist they’re not interested in a continuation of the current grand coalition in which they’re junior partners to the conservatives, but they’re refusing for the time being to put forward their own candidate for chancellor. That decision won’t be made until January.

Still, the SPD is already beginning to strike a critical note toward Angela Merkel’s announcement on Sunday that she would seek a fourth term in office. The campaign is clearly on.

“It was a pretty tepid appearance yesterday, and you have to say that she seems quite winded after 12 years,” SPD secretary general Katarina Barley said at a party press conference on Monday. “Mrs. Merkel has no answers to the real problems facing our country, and the concrete things that this government has done for the people of Germany were often only possible because the SPD overcame bitter resistance from the conservatives.”   

The SPD contends that Angela Merkel’s “myth of invincibility” is gone, but that claim will be hard to take at face value until someone gets the job of actually trying to beat her. SPD chairman Sigmar Gabriel is the most likely candidate but he has relatively low personal popularity ratings. And European Parliamentary leader Martin Schulz – the only other politician often touted as a potential candidate – is hardly a household name in Germany.

“I’m pretty sure that it will be Gabriel, and that he’ll be officially named soon,” Matthias Micus, a political scientist at the University of Göttingen and an expert on the SPD, told DW. “With Merkel now certain as the conservative candidate, the pressure on the SPD has now been increased.”

Whoever does get the nod will face an uphill battle. He or she must position the SPD to run credibly against a party with which it has been in a coalition since 2013. And that person must also try to forge a coalition in 2017 that doesn’t include Merkel’s conservative CDU.

Renewed emphasis on social equity

At Monday’s press conference, the SPD rejected a plan put forward by CDU Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble to partially privatize the Autobahn. But there are a limited number of issues on which the Social Democrats can stake out positions that clearly differ from their coalition partners.

The SPD presented a 71-page “impulse paper” at their press conference, which included abstract initiatives to reduce taxes for poorer Germans, increase government support for families and eradicate inequalities in the healthcare system.

“Our approach is to say we want to work on everyday people’s problems in a rapidly changing world,” said SPD parliamentary leader Thomas Oppermann on Monday. “We’ll be making proposals under the heading ‘more equity.'”

But it’s an open question whether or not that will appeal to an electorate in times when right-wing populism and rejection of so-called “elites” is on the rise.

“I don’t think it’s fundamentally a problem to contest an election against a coalition partner, but you need issues,” Micus said. “And the SPD lacks clear issues with which they can wage a campaign.”

Micus says that he expects the SPD to move further to the left, and that this would represent their best chance for electoral success.

Differences on the left

The SPD’s only realistic path for regaining the chancellorship is a coalition with the Greens and the Left Party – both of which also had critical words for Merkel.

“We’ll be fighting in 2017 to end Merkel’s fatal austerity policies in Europe, her calamitous lack of courage on climate change and growing social inequality,” Green Party co-chair Simone Peter told the DPA news agency.

“Merkel bears a significant part of the responsibility for the deep crisis of democracy in our country,” said Left Party chairman Bernd Reixinger in a statement to DPA.

But their mutual stated desire to be rid of Merkel is no guarantee that these three parties could cooperate on the national level. The Greens’ environmentalism is not a priority with either the SPD or the Left, and the Left Party’s cozy attitude toward Russia and criticism of the West are deal-breakers for the Social Democrats and the Greens.

Micus, however, thinks that the Left Party could be brought into line, citing the fact that the Social Democrats overcame similar disagreements with the Greens in the past.

“If the Left Party were included in a national government and allowed to name ministers, it would be extremely clear that they couldn’t abrogate international treaties,” Micus said. “It would be clear that international alliances can’t be simply dissolved, that there are constraints and that a coalition depends on compromise.”

But even if the three parties did agree, there is no guarantee that a tripartite alliance would achieve a parliamentary majority – together they are currently polling 43 to 44 percent in opinion surveys. And the SPD would also need to formulate a persuasive position on the issue on which Merkel is most vulnerable: her welcoming policy toward refugees that has led to mass migration of people from crisis regions to Germany.

The problem with the populists

That issue has been seized upon by the right-wing populist and anti-immigration Alternative for Germany (AfD), whose leader said that she was happy at the prospect of facing Merkel.

“A politician who caused the dangerous chaos in migration, which has cost billions, is putting herself up for re-election,” AfD chairwoman Frauke Petry told DPA.

The AfD currently gets between 10 and 15 percent in opinion surveys, although the results of the Brexit vote in the United Kingdom and the US presidential election suggest that polls underestimate actual support for right-wing populists.

“The AfD presents the danger that a SPD-Green-Left coalition would still miss out on a parliamentary majority,” Micus said, adding that another grand coalition would then be the only likely alternative. “A clear policy [on migration] is lacking right now. It all feels a bit nebulous and middling.”

Opinion polls bear out that analysis. To mount a truly credible bid for the chancellorship, the SPD most likely would need to take votes away from the AFD, and it’s hard to imagine the Social Democrats being able to do that right now. And that’s just one reason why pollsters see a continuation of the grand coalition the SPD says it doesn’t want as the most probable outcome of next year’s elections.

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Un pensiero riguardo “Germania. Große Koalition kaputt. Thinking the Unthinkable.

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