Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Devoluzione socialismo, Finanza e Sistema Bancario, Geopolitica Europea, Unione Europea

Referendum. Lo spettro del ‘No’ atterrisce le sinistre europee.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2016-11-22.

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Lo spettro del ‘No’ al referendum del quattro dicembre ha mandato nel panico le sinistre europee.

Molti sono i motivi:

– Il Governo Renzi è una loro propaggine in Italia: loro lo hanno fatto nominare, loro gli emanano gli ordini da eseguire, loro tagliano i dividendi dell’impoverimento dell’Italia.

– Un ‘No’ al referendum sarebbe una piena e totale bocciatura dell’attuale dirigenza europea, da Mr Juncker a Mr Schulz, da Mr Hollande a Frau Merkel.

– Un ‘No’ al referendum sarebbe una piena e totale bocciatura del Governo Renzi

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Molti sono i segni del panico delle sinistre.

– Contrariamente alla abitudine di tenere gli articoli importanti riservati ai soli abbonati, sia il Financial Times sia il Wall Street Journal hanno tenuto aperti al pubblico i loro recenti interventi sul referendum italiano.

– Le firma dei giornalisti sono quelle delle grandi occasioni, al punto tale che il FT pubblica a nome di Herr Wolfgang Münchau, che caso strano è un tedesco. Valli a capire certi inglesi.

– L’incipit del WSJ è da manuale di controinformazione: «The referendum is “setting the tone for 2017” on the political and investment climate in Italy and across Europe, said Wolf von Rotberg, European equity strategist at Deutsche Bank AG.». Anche in questo caso Herr Wolf von Rotberg è un tedesco di Germania ed altrettanto casualmente lavora come equity strategist presso la Deutsche Bank AG. Valli a capire certi americani.

– Nella foga peroratoria, le sinistre iniziano a contraddirsi vistosamente.

«If a ‘no’ vote wins, everything remains as it is,” Mr. Renzi said in a radio interview this past week.»

Dunque, secondo il Gauleiter Matteo Renzi qualsiasi sia il risultato referendario nulla muterebbe in Italia.

Invece, il WSJ riporta

«With the antiestablishment 5 Star Movement polling at about 30%, it has a chance at leading a new government. The party’s economic platforms include renegotiating Italy’s debt and calling a nonbinding referendum on the euro, issues that would destabilize the region as a whole.»

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Al limite del patetico invece il Financial Times.

«If Matteo Renzi, Italian prime minister, loses his constitutional referendum on December 4, I would expect a sequence of events that would raise questions of Italy’s participation in the eurozone. ….

The largest and most important is the Five Star Movement, a party that defies the usual left-right classification. The second is Forza Italia, Silvio Berlusconi’s party, which has turned rabidly anti-euro after the former prime minister was forced out of office in 2011. And the third is the separatist Lega Nord.»

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«In democratic countries, it is common that opposition parties eventually come to power»

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«Expect that to happen in Italy too»

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«In France, the probability of a presidential election victory by Marine Le Pen is no longer a remote risk»

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«On December 5, Europe could wake up to an immediate threat of disintegration.»

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«If you want to know why Angela Merkel cannot be the leader of the free world, look no further. The German chancellor could not even lead Europe when it mattered.»

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Ricapitoliamo.

Per il Premier Matteo Renzi che vinca il ‘Sì’ oppure che vinca il’No’ tutto resterebbe immutato.

«Francia o Spagna, purché se magna!»

Mentre invece per gli amici tedeschi che parlano dai pulpiti del Financial Times e del Wall Street Journal, l’Italia uscirebbe dall’Eurozona, l’Unione Europea si disintegrerebbe, e, terrore dei terrori, le opposizioni potrebbero andare al governo sia in Italia sia in Francia!

Accidenti che quadri differenti!

Ma il vero urlo di lancinante dolore è questo:

«Angela Merkel cannot be the leader of the free world»

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Concludendo.

Il ‘Sì’ consegna l’Italia nella mani di Frau Merkel, novella voivoda delle sinistre residue, il ‘No’ ridarebbe libertà di azione agli italiani.

Il ‘No’ manderebbe a casa tutti gli eurocrati.


FinancialTimes. 2016-11-21. Italy’s referendum holds the key to the future of the euro.

by Wolfgang Münchau.

On December 5, Europe could wake up to an immediate threat of disintegration.

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After Brexit and Donald Trump, prepare for the return of the eurozone crisis. If Matteo Renzi, Italian prime minister, loses his constitutional referendum on December 4, I would expect a sequence of events that would raise questions of Italy’s participation in the eurozone.

The underlying causes of this extremely disturbing possibility have nothing to do with the referendum itself. The most important was Italy’s economic performance since it adopted the euro in 1999. Total factor productivity, the portion of economic output not explained by labour and capital, has fallen in Italy by about 5 per cent since then whereas in Germany and France it went up by about 10 per cent.

The second source was the failure by the EU to construct a proper economic and banking union after the eurozone crisis of 2010-2012 and to impose austerity instead. If you want to know why Angela Merkel cannot be the leader of the free world, look no further. The German chancellor could not even lead Europe when it mattered.

The combination of those two factors are the biggest causes for the incremental rise in populism in Europe. Italy has three opposition parties, all of which favour exiting the euro. The largest and most important is the Five Star Movement, a party that defies the usual left-right classification. The second is Forza Italia, Silvio Berlusconi’s party, which has turned rabidly anti-euro after the former prime minister was forced out of office in 2011. And the third is the separatist Lega Nord. In democratic countries, it is common that opposition parties eventually come to power. Expect that to happen in Italy too.

The referendum matters as it could accelerate the path towards euro exit. If Mr Renzi loses, he has said he would resign, leading to political chaos. Investors might conclude the game is up. On December 5, Europe could wake up to an immediate threat of disintegration.

In France, the probability of a presidential election victory by Marine Le Pen is no longer a remote risk. Of all the candidates that have declared, she is the best prepared. There are some who could beat her, like Emmanuel Macron, the former reformist economics minister, who declared his candidacy on Wednesday. But he may not make it to the final round of the elections as he lacks a party apparatus. If Ms Le Pen became president, she has promised to hold a referendum on France’s future in the EU. If that referendum were to lead to Frexit, the EU would be finished the next morning. So would the euro.

A French or Italian exit from the euro would bring about the biggest default in history. Foreign holders of Italian or French euro-denominated debt would be paid in the equivalents of lira or French francs. Both would devalue. Since banks do not have to hold capital against their holdings of government bonds, the losses would force many continental banks into immediate bankruptcy. Germany would then realise a massive current account surplus also has its downsides. There is a lot of German wealth waiting to be defaulted on.

Can this be prevented? In theory it can, but it would require a series of decisions taken in time and in the right sequence. For starters, Ms Merkel would have to accept what she refused in 2012 — a road map towards a full fiscal and political union. The EU would also need to strengthen the European Stability Mechanism, the rescue umbrella, which is not designed to handle countries the size of Italy or France.

Is this even remotely likely? Think about it this way: if you ask the German chancellor whether she wants commonly-backed eurozone bonds, she will tell you no. But if she has to choose between eurobonds and an Italian exit from the euro, her response may well be different. The answer will also depend on whether you ask before or after the German elections next autumn.

My central expectation, however, remains not a collapse of the EU and the euro, but a departure of one or more countries, possibly Italy, but not France. In the light of recent events, my baseline scenario is now firmly on the optimistic scale of reasonable expectations.


The Wall Street Journal. 2016-11-21. Next Wild Card for Markets: Italy’s Constitutional Referendum

A rejection of the measure on Dec. 4 could rattle stocks, bonds and the euro—and set a damaging tone for Europe.

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After Brexit and Donald Trump, investors are focused on Italy as they position themselves ahead of what could be the latest political event to rattle markets and upend politics.

If rejected, a Dec. 4 referendum in Italy has the potential to send the country’s bank shares tumbling, push bond yields up and further weaken the euro.

The vote is on a constitutional overhaul presented by Prime Minister Matteo Renzi that aims to speed up lawmaking and produce more stable governments. Mr. Renzi has pledged to resign in case of a “no” vote. With the economy in the doldrums and the 41-year-old premier’s popularity waning, the referendum has effectively become a confidence vote on the government and its efforts to revive the economy.

The referendum is “setting the tone for 2017” on the political and investment climate in Italy and across Europe, said Wolf von Rotberg, European equity strategist at Deutsche Bank AG.

Recent polls put the “no” vote just ahead, with more than 20% undecided. That has unnerved investors, who worry about political instability in a country that is one of Europe’s most indebted and grappling with battered banks, years of economic stagnation and increasing euroskeptic sentiment.

“If a ‘no’ vote wins, everything remains as it is,” Mr. Renzi said in a radio interview this past week. “In this way, Italy will remain a system that favors instability and backdoor dealings.”

If the prime minister—considered one of Europe’s most reform-minded leaders—steps down, the most likely outcome is the establishment of a caretaker government.

But that could also bring forward parliamentary elections now slated for 2018. With the antiestablishment 5 Star Movement polling at about 30%, it has a chance at leading a new government. The party’s economic platforms include renegotiating Italy’s debt and calling a nonbinding referendum on the euro, issues that would destabilize the region as a whole.

To be sure, some investors have pointed to the positive stock-market response to the U.S. election and the recovery in risk assets after an initial selloff following the U.K. vote in June to leave the European Union as reasons to expect any referendum selloff to be short-lived. And the political fallout could be less severe than feared if a credible caretaker government takes over and support for the 5 Star Movement fades.

“When [investors] understand there are a lot of steps in between and the chain of events isn’t automatic, they realize the outcome of the constitutional referendum is much less risky than they thought,” said Giovanni Zanni, head of economic research for southern Europe at Credit Suisse Group AG.


Ansa. 2016-11-21. Financial Times sul referendum: ‘Con vittoria del No dubbi su Italia nell’ euro

Wsj, No farà tremare titoli, spingerà spread ed indebolirà euro.

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Sia il Financial Times che il Wall Street Journal dedicano oggi un articolo al referendum italiano e alle possibili conseguenze politiche ed economiche, segnalando entrambi possibili rischi per l’euro. Il Wsj, in prima pagina, sottolinea i rischi per gli investitori che “si preparano al tumulto”, mentre il Ft gli dedica un commento nelle pagine interne, firmato da Wolfgang Munchau che vede dopo il referendum il rischio di una nuova “crisi della zona euro”.

In caso di vittoria del ‘no’, Munchau sul Ft prevede “una sequenza di eventi che metterebbe in dubbio l’appartenenza dell’Italia alla zona euro”. Una possibilità “inquietante che non ha nulla a che fare con il referendum stesso”, ma con altre cause. La prima è la debole performance economica del Paese che “ha perso il 5% di produttività” dall’adozione dell’euro nel 1999, “mentre in Germania e Francia è salita del 10%”. La seconda è il “fallimento” dell’Ue “che non ha saputo costruire una vera Unione economica e bancaria dopo la crisi del 2010-2012 e ha invece imposto l’austerità”. 

“Se respinto, il referendum avrà il potere di far tremare i titoli bancari, spingere gli spread ed indebolire ulteriormente l’euro”, scrive invece il Wsj. I recenti sondaggi, che danno il ‘no’ avanti “hanno innervosito gli investitori”. Ma le “vendite” sui mercati in caso di vittoria del ‘no’ potrebbero “avere vita breve”, come avvenuto con il voto Usa e con la Brexit. Inoltre, la “ricaduta politica potrebbe essere meno severa del temuto se ci fosse un Governo per gli affari correnti credibile e se il sostegno per il M5S scemasse”.

 

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