Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Sistemi Politici, Unione Europea

Francia. Bookmakers. Le Pen 7 a 4.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2016-11-18.

 le-pen-005

«France’s main pollsters are all projecting the National Front leader will take one of the top two spots in April’s first round»

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«But they also see her losing in a run-off to the center-right Republicans’ candidate by a wide margin»

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«Though bookmakers have cut the odds on a Le Pen presidency sharply since Trump’s upset, pollsters say they are confident that snapshot is accurately reflecting the national mood six months out from the vote»

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«All the same, the bookmaker Ladbrokes Plc has cut the odds on Le Pen to 7-to-4 from 5-to-1 before the U.S. election, implying a 36 percent chance of victory»

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Il problema sarebbe davvero molto semplice.

Non è Mr Trump che si è fatto eleggere dal popolo americano.

È il popolo americano che ha eletto Mr. Trump.

Se si capisce questo semplice passaggio, allora molte cose diventano limpidamente chiare.

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La gente è arcistufa di questa sinistra costituzionalmente ed intrinsecamente bugiarda, quella degli eufemismi ridicoli del politicamente corretto, delle quote rosa, delle variazioni climatiche ad uso arricchimento indebito alle spalle dei Contribuenti, dell’immigrazione islamica, della teoria del gender e così via.

La gente proprio non ne può di più.

Non solo.

Abbiamo letto legioni di giornalisti sconsolati che hanno dovuto constatare che nonostante tute le loro campagne stampa mendaci e denigratorie, Mr Trump non solo è uscito alla grande, ma ha anche conquistato al partito repubblicano sia la Camera sia il Senato.

La devoluzione socialista prosegue a grandi passi, e ciò che solo qualche giorno fa era impensato ed impensabile, oggi è realtà quotidiana.

–  Germania. È iniziata la rivolta. 1.5 milioni in piazza per la famiglia. 2016-11-16

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Il 23 aprile si terranno le elezioni presidenziali in Francia.

Il Front National è chiaramente il secondo partito, se non il primo, per cui la Le Pen dovrebbe andare al ballottaggio con i Les Républicains. I socialisti scompariranno come forza politica organizzata, ma potrebbero votare il candidato dei LR a discapito della Le Pen, per puro odio nei confronti della signora.

Ma non è detto che accada questo.

Molti indicatori si stanno muovendo, e la vittoria dei Les Républicains non è poi così scontata come potrebbe sembrare.

In ogni caso si ricordi bene che, in Francia come altrove, il primario obiettivo strategico è la distruzione del socialismo come forza organizzata e transnazionale: il resto verrà poi di conseguenza.


Bloomberg. 2016-11-16. French Pollsters Spooked by Trump But Still Don’t See Le Pen Win

– Simpler system, higher turnout help surveys of France voters

– Pollsters learned to adapt after missing Le Pen’s 2002 surge

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A plain-speaking candidate with a business background was running for president and the polls gave him little chance after a series of outbursts decried as racist. But it was the pollsters who ended up with egg on their faces.

It’s not just the story of Donald Trump in 2016 America, but also France’s Jean-Marie Le Pen in 2002.

Far-right leader Le Pen pulled off a surprise by qualifying for the second round of the presidential election where — this time correctly forecast by pollsters — he was routed by incumbent Jacques Chirac. Polls had all expected Chirac to face off against Socialist candidate Lionel Jospin.

France holds presidential elections again in 2017 and after two major political upsets in recent months — Trump’s U.S. victory followed Britain’s Brexit vote in June — eyes are on Jean-Marie’s daughter Marine who is on track to repeat her father’s achievement and is promising a referendum on whether to pull France out of the European Union.

France’s main pollsters are all projecting the National Front leader will take one of the top two spots in April’s first round. But they also see her losing in a run-off to the center-right Republicans’ candidate by a wide margin. Though bookmakers have cut the odds on a Le Pen presidency sharply since Trump’s upset, pollsters say they are confident that snapshot is accurately reflecting the national mood six months out from the vote.

“I’d never say ‘never’ but I do think we have some advantages that our U.S. colleagues don’t,” said Bruno Jeanbert, deputy managing director at pollsters OpinionWay. “A Trump-style surprise is less likely here.”

Polls vs Bookies

According to a BVA poll carried out between Oct. 14 and Oct. 19, Le Pen would win between 25 percent and 29 percent of the vote in next April’s first round. If she faces Bordeaux mayor Alain Juppe — the favorite to win the Republicans primary — she’d lose the May 7 run-off by more than 30 percentage points. If it’s former President Nicolas Sarkozy, the margin would be 12 points.

That’s a much wider advantage than Hillary Clinton held over Trump in days before the U.S. election on Nov. 8, so the chances of an upset are more remote, according to Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Berenberg Bank. All the same, the bookmaker Ladbrokes Plc has cut the odds on Le Pen to 7-to-4 from 5-to-1 before the U.S. election, implying a 36 percent chance of victory.

“We are fairly confident that Le Pen will not win,” Schmieding wrote in a note to clients Nov. 11. “Still, we need to monitor the political risks very closely.”

France Is Different

French pollsters have the benefit of experience. Trump’s candidacy had no precedent in U.S. politics so pollsters had no reference point to gauge whether voters were reluctant to admit they were backing him. The French have had a chance to re-calibrate since 2002.

“We missed the rising support for Jean-Marie Le Pen,” said Yves-Marie Cann, director of political studies at pollster Elabe. “But we have adjusted our methods and in past elections we were pretty close to the final outcome. That does argue for some confidence in our work.”

In addition, Le Pen has worked to make her version of the National Front more conventional. She’s thrown her father out of the party, repudiated his racist and anti-Semitic comments to focus more on the economy, and makes frequent appearances in the media. All that makes voters less likely to hide their support for her, Cann said.

Even before the emergence of the first Le Pen, French pollsters were used to tracking the fortunes of more extreme movements. In the 1970s, the Communist Party was routinely taking more than 20 percent of the first-round presidential vote.

“Trump was a new phenomena,” said OpinionWay’s Jeanbert. “We have a longer tradition of protest votes.”

Known Unknowns

There are still issues which will shape the race between now and polling day. President Francois Hollande has yet to decide whether he will seek re-election. If he doesn’t run, another Socialist candidate would enter the race but at this stage, polls show any Socialist candidate would fail to qualify for the second round. Hollande’s former Economy Minister Emmanuel Macron declared an independent bid Wednesday, potentially siphoning more votes away from the mainstream parties.

Still, France’s higher participation rates mean there’s less chance of surprises from the so-called “hidden voters,” like those white, rural voters the U.S. who apparently drove Trump to victory. Turnout in U.S. presidential elections has been below 60 percent since the 1960s while at least 80 percent of French have voted over most of that period.

One final advantage French pollsters have over their American colleagues is that French presidential elections are simpler: the candidate with the most votes nationwide wins.

Even with the much more complicated electoral college system, U.S. pollsters weren’t really that far off this year, Jeanbert says. The average of the final polls showed Clinton with a nationwide lead of about three points. Final results aren’t in but she probably won the popular vote by just under one point, within the margin of error. Polls were correct in almost every state. They got Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan wrong, but even there final polls showed Clinton with only single digit leads.

“It wasn’t so much a problem with the polls, but with analysis of the polls,” Jeanbert said. “They got the national vote almost perfectly, but were off in two or three states by just several tens of thousands of votes. You just can’t always predict everything.”


Bbc. 2016-11-16. Marine Le Pen: Trump win boosts my chances

France’s far-right leader has told the BBC that Donald Trump’s victory in the US has boosted her own chances of being elected president next year.

Marine Le Pen, who leads the French National Front (FN), said Mr Trump had “made possible what had previously been presented as impossible”.

She is widely expected to reach the second round of the election in May.

Ms Le Pen also held up Russian President Vladimir Putin’s rule as model of “reasoned protectionism”.

Her Eurosceptic, anti-immigration party took more than 27% of the vote in regional elections last December but did not get control of any region because mainstream parties worked together to defeat it.

Analysts expect other parties to again rally behind her opponent in the presidential ballot, if she does reach the run-off.

However, Mr Trump’s shock election on an anti-immigration, protectionist platform and the UK’s referendum vote in June to leave the EU have rocked the political establishment on both sides of the Atlantic.

UK Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn said both Mr Trump and Ms Le Pen use “awful and absurd language” against Muslims and other minorities.

He told the BBC’s Andrew Marr Show: “She uses this populism against minorities in order to get herself elected.”

  • ‘No reason to be scared’

Speaking to the Marr Show in a pre-recorded interview, Ms Le Pen was asked if victory now looked likelier for her.

“Yes, I wish that in France also the people upend the table, the table around which the elite are dividing up what should go to the French people,” she said.

French voters would, she said, be offered the choice of a multicultural society “following the model of the English-speaking world, where fundamental Islam is progressing” and “an independent nation, with people able to control their own destiny”.

“I believe that every country has the right to defend its own interests,” she added.

She also called the EU an “oppressive model”, and said it would be replaced by a “Europe of free nations” which “many Europeans are yearning for”.

Asked about the potential threat posed by Russia since its annexation of Crimea from Ukraine in 2014 and military intervention in Syria last year, she said there was “no reason to be scared”.

“Russia is a European country, and so we’d better, if we want a powerful Europe, negotiate with Russia,” she added.

She also praised that country’s “reasoned protectionism” under President Vladimir Putin, who she says is “looking after the interests of his own country, defending its identity”.

Asked about immigration, Ms Le Pen said: “We are not going to welcome any more people, stop, we are full up!”

On relations with French Muslims, she said she did “not judge people based on their religion” but the state would “act accordingly” if people refused to “comply with our codes, our values, our French lifestyles”.

France is home to the largest Muslim community in Western Europe. Jihadist attacks over the past two years have contributed to a rise in anti-immigration sentiment.

The FN leader denied her party was motivated by racism, saying: “I don’t think it’s racist to say that we cannot take in all the poverty of the world, we cannot take care of hundreds of thousands of people arriving here, because our first obligation is to protect the French people.”

But Mr Corbyn said Le Pen uses a “shallow, populist, nasty” appeal.

He added: “The reality is she does not have an economic answer to the problems faced by left communities in France, any more than UKIP has an answer to the left behind communities in Britain”.

A spokesman for UKIP said the party had made it clear for many years that it does not share the same policies of the FN, whose immigration policy is driven by its “long standing antipathy to significant groups”.

“We believe that immigration is a boon to this country, but that it should be controlled, with no hint of favour for any group or ethnicity,” the spokesman added.

UK viewers can see the full interview on BBC One’s Andrew Marr show at 09:00 GMT on Sunday, and afterwards on the BBC iPlayer

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