Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Sistemi Politici, Unione Europea

Trump. Come cambierà l’Unione Europea.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2016-11-12.

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Their world is collapsing. Ours is being built,” Philippot tweeted.


Per cercare di comprendere la complessa delicatezza dei rapporti culturali, politici, sociali, economici e militari che intercorrono tra gli Usa e l’Europa Unita sarebbe cosa utile razionalizzare alcuni elementi, dei dati di fatto. Alcuni piacevoli, altri meno, altri indigesti.

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– Mentre da un punto di vista politico gli Usa sono un blocco unitario e compatto, con una dirigenza chiaramente identificabile, al contrario l’Unione Europea è un conglomerato di paesi uniti da una congerie di trattati internazionali spesso conflittuali, con una gestione operativa farraginosa e lenta, senza figure istituzionali in grado di assumere decisioni in nome dell’Unione e con potere esecutivo tale da farle poi rispettare.

– Mentre da un lato gli Usa per quattro anni consecutivi, forse otto, avranno una conduzione stabile, al contrario in molti importanti paesi dell’Unione Europea si terranno a breve e medio termine elezioni che secondo gli attuali sondaggi elettorali potrebbero ribaltare le linee politiche perseguite. Molti governanti europei attuali non esprimono in altri termini né la nazione che rappresentano, né garantiscono un minimo di stabilità operativa. Situazione questa che non concorre a rendere chiari i rapporti.

– In linea generale, la gran parte delle idee guida asserite da Mr Trump sono diametralmente opposte a quelle dell’attuale dirigenza dell’Unione Europea. Il confronto potrebbe quindi sfociare in severe sia pure momentanee contrapposizioni.

– Un problema sarà però ineludibile: quello della difesa militare. L’Unione Europea ha un budget militare penosamente scarno ed un potere combattivo basso. Il maggior peso gestionale grava sugli Stati Uniti. E questa è una situazione che non può durare a lungo: chi vuole difendersi ed essere difeso non può farlo a sbafo.

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«Most in Europe were expecting to wake up to President-elect Hillary Clinton. But now that Trump has won, many political leaders in Germany and the EU are in no mood to celebrate — with some exceptions»

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«Among European politicians, though, initial reactions were significantly darker»

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«German Chancellor Angela Merkel felt …. Democracy, freedom, respect for the law and for human dignity, regardless of ancestry, skin color, religion, gender, sexual orientation or political leanings»

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«Trump is a warning to us as well. He is the harbinger of a new authoritarian and chauvinistic international movement» [Sigmar Gabriel]

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«Marine Le Pen, head of Front National in France, quickly congratulated Trump and “the free American people” on Twitter»

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«Heinz-Christian Strache, head of the right-wing populist Freedom Party of Austria, congratulated Trump on Facebook and wrote: “The political left and aloof, corrupt establishment is being punished by voters step-by-step.”»

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«It is the end of an era, that of neoliberalism. It remains to be seen what will succeed it. After Brexit and this election, everything is now possible. A world is collapsing before our eyes» [Gérard Araud]

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«France, like the rest of Europe, will have to find a way of working with Trump. But before Araud’s remarks disappeared, they were noticed by Florian Philippot, the top strategist in France’s Front National, which will seek to emulate Trump’s success in the French presidential election next April.»

Forse la migliore conclusione è quella esposta in un simpatico articolo comparso sul Deutsche Welle:

After Trump’s US upset, could France be next?

L’Amministrazione Trump potrebbe accelerare il processo di disgregazione dell’Unione Europea dando maggior voce alle componenti eurocritiche.

In altri termini:

«Di qui ad un anno ci sarà ancora ciò che adesso intendiamo come “Unione Europea”»?

 


The Wall Street Journal. 2016-11-10. Donald Trump’s Win Hailed by Europe’s Populists as Proof of Anti-Establishment Momentum

European populists seized on Donald Trump’s election Wednesday as evidence of a sea change that will help sweep away the continent’s political establishment and carry them to power.

As three of Europe’s largest countries prepare to head to the polls over the next 10 months, Mr. Trump’s victory shows how pent-up populist and nationalist forces can erupt, stunning pollsters, media and mainstream political parties alike.

 


Independent. 2016-11-10. Donald Trump’s election as US President opens ‘period of uncertainty’ in Europe, leaders warn

Angela Merkel says she will work with President-elect if he offers ‘respect for human beings, independently of origin, skin colour, religion, gender, sexual orientation or political views’.

Mr Trump’s success has raised hackles in Europe although far right groups have hailed it as a triumph.

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Europe is facing a “period of uncertainty” following the election of Donald Trump as US President, leaders have warned as France and Germany gave the President-elect a frosty welcome.

François Hollande, who once said the Republican candidate made him “want to retch”, called for European nations to unite to defend their interests.

The French President said Wednesday’s shock result “opens a period of uncertainty” that must be met with lucidity and clarity.

“I offer my congratulations, as it is natural to do between two heads of democratic states,” Mr Hollande said in an unsmiling televised address. “The United States is a partner of the first order for France. 

“What is at stake is peace, the fight against terrorism, the situation in the Middle East, economic relations and the preservation of the planet.”

Hinting at climate change, previously denied by Mr Trump, Mr Hollande said he would open discussions with the new administration without delay but confront disagreements with “vigilance and frankness”.

“Some positions taken by Donald Trump during the US campaign contradict values and interests we share with the United States,” he added.

“This context calls for a united Europe, capable of making itself heard and of promoting policies wherever its interests or its values are challenged.”

Mr Trump has raised hackles in France by claiming Isis’ Paris attacks last November might have been avoided if the country relaxed its gun laws, as well as claiming “vicious” no-go zones existed in the capital.

In Germany, Chancellor Angela Merkel congratulated the President-elect and offered “close cooperation”, but tacitly criticised Mr Trump in her speech. She told reporters in Berlin his election campaign featured “confrontations that were difficult to bear”. 

Ms Merkel stressed Germany’s close historical connection with the US but added: “Germany and America are connected by values: democracy, freedom, respect for the law and for the dignity of human beings, independently of origin, skin colour, religion, gender, sexual orientation or political views.

“On the basis of these values, I am offering the future President of the United States of America, Donald Trump, close cooperation.” 

Her remarks came after Mr Trump took aim at the German government’s policy of opening its borders to refugees, calling the move a “disaster in August”.

“Hillary Clinton wants to be America’s Angela Merkel and you know what a disaster this massive immigration has been to Germany and the people of Germany,” he told a rally, in comments since shown to be factually unfounded. “Crime has risen to levels that no one thought they would ever, ever see. It is a catastrophe.”

The response from Germany and France was far more outspoken than the cordial welcome offered by British leaders. Theresa May, the Prime Minister, congratulated Mr Trump and said she would maintain the “special relationship” between Britain and America, while Boris Johnson said he was “looking forward” to working with the new administration as Foreign Secretary.

Hungary’s Prime Minister was also positive, calling the shock result “great news” that shows “democracy is still alive”. Viktor Orban has previously been criticised by the US, including by Hillary Clinton when she was Secretary State, for weakening democracy and is known for his anti-refugee policies 

Far-right and anti-immigration groups were also celebrating. Among them were France’s Front National, who hailed the “collapse” of political order and Dutch anti-Islam politician Geert Wilders.

Vladimir Putin said Moscow is ready to try to restore good relations with the US in the wake of the election but would face a “difficult path”.

EU Parliament president Martin Schulz said the result “must be respected” as he said that Mr Trump “managed to become the standard-bearer of the angst and fears of millions of Americans”. 

Meanwhile, the European Union’s foreign policy chief, Federica Mogherini,  said: “We’ll continue to work together, rediscovering the strength of Europe.”

 

The Guardian. 2016-11-10. Europe’s leaders cannot hide their nerves amid Trump congratulations

Foreign ministers arrange meeting to assess how election victory will affect relations with US on trade and defence.

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European foreign ministers are to meet on Sunday to assess what impact Donald Trump’s election victory will have on transatlantic relations amid widespread nervousness about his intentions on trade and defence.

That anxiety was shared with US allies and trading partners elsewhere in the world who are waiting to see what Trump’s “America first” approach will entail once he is in the Oval Office in January.

In Europe, the uncertainty bubbled up beneath the ritual dispatch of congratulations. The German defence minister, Ursula von der Leyen, gave her gut reaction soon after the outcome of the election became clear, admitting her surprise.

“It was a big shock when I saw the way things are heading,” Von der Leyen told the broadcaster ARD. She referred to Trump’s remarks during the campaign that Nato allies could count on US support in the event of an attack only if they made fair contributions to the cost of collective defence.

“Of course we Europeans, as a Nato ally, know that if Donald Trump becomes president, he’ll ask: ‘What are you contributing to this alliance?’” she said. “But we’re also wondering, what’s your position on this alliance?”

Von der Leyen said the German government was trying to find a contact in the Trump transition team, a challenge shared by other European capitals that had expected to be dealing with familiar figures from Hillary Clinton’s team. “There are many questions yet to be answered,” she said.

Speaking later in the day, the German chancellor, Angela Merkel, framed her congratulations in the conditional, suggesting Berlin would get on with Washington as long as it continued to share core values.

“Germany and America are linked by values such as democracy, freedom, respect for the rule of law and the dignity of men, regardless of origin, skin colour, religion, gender or sexual orientation,” Merkel said. “On the basis of these values, I offer US president-elect Donald Trump our close cooperation.”

While the UK prime minister, Theresa May, issued a more formulaic statement of congratulations, François Hollande’s reaction was as guarded as Merkel’s. He predicted a period of uncertainty that “must be faced with lucidity and clarity”.

Speaking after his weekly cabinet meeting, the French president said: “Certain positions taken by Donald Trump during the American campaign must be confronted.

“What is at stake is peace, the fight against terrorism, the situation in the Middle East. It is economic relations and the preservation of the planet.”

Any hope that the long-negotiated and controversial Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership might finally be agreed next year by the US and EU have largely been abandoned. Trump put hostility to such multilateral trade accords at the heart of his campaign.

But the comments of European officials also betrayed apprehension about Trump’s unconcealed admiration for Vladimir Putin and his ambivalent attitude towards Nato, which he once referred to as “obsolete”.

A presidential spokesman in Poland, Marek Magierowski, stressed the importance of Nato showing its commitment to defence on its eastern flank by basing battalions in the region, including a US armoured brigade, and building a US missile base there.

For his part, Putin foresaw Trump’s election leading to an improvement in bilateral ties, saying: “We are aware that it is a difficult path, in view of the unfortunate degradation of relations between the Russian Federation and the United States.”

The Russian president said it was not Russia’s fault that the relationship between Moscow and Washington was in such a poor state.

Nato’s secretary general, Jens Stoltenberg, stressed that US treaty commitments in Europe went beyond the vagaries of electoral politics. “Nato’s security guarantee is treaty commitment and all allies have made … a solemn commitment to defend each other. And this is something which is absolute and it’s unconditioned.”

Stoltenberg noted pointedly that the only time Nato had invoked article 5, the clause on collective defence in its founding treaty, was in defence of the US after the 9/11 attacks.

On election night, when it became clear that Trump was heading for victory, the French ambassador to the US, Gérard Araud, known for speaking his mind, tweeted: “It is the end of an era, that of neoliberalism. It remains to be seen what will succeed it. After Brexit and this election, everything is now possible. A world is collapsing before our eyes.” The tweets were deleted soon afterwards.

France, like the rest of Europe, will have to find a way of working with Trump. But before Araud’s remarks disappeared, they were noticed by Florian Philippot, the top strategist in France’s Front National, which will seek to emulate Trump’s success in the French presidential election next April.

“Their world is collapsing. Ours is being built,” Philippot tweeted.


Spiegel. 2016-11-10. ‘The World Is Crumbling in Front of Our Eyes’

Most in Europe were expecting to wake up to President-elect Hillary Clinton. But now that Trump has won, many political leaders in Germany and the EU are in no mood to celebrate — with some exceptions.

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As is often the case with earth-shaking events, it was the financial markets that reacted first. The DAX, Germany’s blue-chip stock index, quickly plunged upon opening on Wednesday morning in response to the news that Donald Trump had won the US presidential elections. But despite expectations by some financial experts that the index would drop by up to 4 percent against Tuesday, the DAX quickly stabilized after opening down just over 1 percent.

“I actually don’t expect significantly negative effects for the German economy,” Marcel Fratzscher, president of the German Institute for Economic Research, told German press agency DPA.

Among European politicians, though, initial reactions were significantly darker. German Chancellor Angela Merkel felt it necessary in a Wednesday midday statement to remind Trump of the values that bind Germany and America together: “Democracy, freedom, respect for the law and for human dignity, regardless of ancestry, skin color, religion, gender, sexual orientation or political leanings.” She then said: “On the basis of these values, I offer the future president of the United States of America, Donald Trump, close cooperation.”

German Defense Minister Ursula von der Leyen told German public broadcaster ARD on Wednesday morning that Trump’s victory was a “deep shock.” She added: “I think Donald Trump also knows that this election was not for him but was against Washington, against the establishment.”

In terms of what the election might mean for Germany, von der Leyen said: “Europe has to prepare for the fact that it must provide for itself,” including a larger defense budget. She believes that the US will demand greater German engagement in NATO.

German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier also spoke about what the election might mean for Germany. “We hope that we are not facing greater instability in international politics. During his campaign, Trump was critical not just of Europe, but also of Germany. I believe we must prepare for American foreign policy becoming less predictable. We must prepare for a situation in which America will be tempted to make decisions on its own more often.”

“I don’t want to sugarcoat it: Nothing will be easier and much will be more difficult,” he continued. “Just as we Germans learned a lot in the past from our American friends, we should now encourage our American friends to stay true to past partnerships and to us.”

‘It Will Only Get Crazier’

Sigmar Gabriel, head of Germany’s Social Democrats and Merkel’s vice chancellor, was more terse, saying: “Trump is a warning to us as well. He is the harbinger of a new authoritarian and chauvinistic international movement.”

German Justice Minister Heiko Maas, of the center-left Social Democrats, took to Twitter, writing: “The world won’t end. It will only get crazier.”

Cem Özdemir, co-leader of the German Green Party, said: “This is a break with the tradition that the West stands for liberal values.”

Reactions elsewhere in Europe were no more optimistic. Former Italian Prime Minister Enrico Letta said on Twitter that Trump’s victory was “the most significant political development since the fall of the Berlin Wall and a wake-up call for Europe.” Gérard Araud, French Ambassador to the US, tweeted: “This is the end of an epoch. After Brexit and this vote anything is possible. The world is crumbling in front of our eyes.” He later deleted the tweet.

In Brussels, President of European Martin Schulz said: “I’m not happy about it…. But on the other hand, I also believe that the political system in the US is strong enough to be able to deal with a president like Trump.”

European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker and European Council President Donald Tusk, for their part, wrote a joint letter to Trump in which they invoked the “strategic partnership” between the EU and the US, saying it was “more important than ever before” to strengthen transatlantic relations.

Manfred Weber, floor leader for the center-right European People’s Party, also had foreign policy on his mind: “We have to be more self-confident and stronger and take on more responsibility,” he said. “We don’t know what to expect from the US going forward. … We cannot leave the playing field to radicals the world over.”

Most heads of government across Europe chose to wait with their initial reactions, with some unsurprising exceptions. Those who welcomed Trump’s victory were quick to congratulate him. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, for example, said that the Republican’s election to the presidency is “fantastic news” showing that “democracy is still alive.” Russian President Vladimir Putin quickly sent Trump a congratulatory message.

Other populists in Europe were likewise giddy at the prospect of Trump entering the White House. Marine Le Pen, head of Front National in France, quickly congratulated Trump and “the free American people” on Twitter. She was quickly followed by her deputy Florian Philippot, who tweeted: “Their world is crumbling, ours is building.”

Heinz-Christian Strache, head of the right-wing populist Freedom Party of Austria, congratulated Trump on Facebook and wrote: “The political left and aloof, corrupt establishment is being punished by voters step-by-step.”

With many in Europe having stayed awake through the night to watch the returns, there were few on Wednesday morning who seemed in much of a mood to argue.

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