Giuseppe Sandro Mela.
La Baviera ha 12,843,514 abitanti, un pil di 550 miliardi e manda sei rappresentanti al Bundesrat, che ha 69 membri.
Le ultime proiezioni GMS del 3 novembre indicherebbero la Csu al 44%, con AfD al 9% e FDP al 6%. Socialdemocratici in calo dal 20.6% al 18.0%.
Infratest dimap indica a livello federale l’Union (Cdu + Csu) in calo dal 41.5% al 33%, così come i socialdemocratici dal 25.7% al 22%, mentre FDP otterrebbe il 6% ed AfD il 13%.
Lo scorporo in Germania dell’Ovest e dell’Est presenta dati impietosi. Nei Länder orientali la Union crollerebbe dal 38.5% al 27%, mentre AfD raggiungerebbe il 21%.
Al momento attuale tutto deporrebbe per la conclusione che mentre la Csu tiene molto bene, la Cdu vede ridursi il suo consenso elettorale di oltre un buon terzo.
Il quadro politico tedesco sembrerebbe così avviarsi ad un periodo di turbolento chaos cui i tedeschi non sono per nulla avvezzi.
Sussiste la remota possibilità che si possa formare un governo rosso-rosso-verde, ma Spd, Linke e Grüne sono proiettati al 22%, 9% e 12%, rispettivamente: al momento attuale non avrebbero i numeri necessari.
In questo clima si sta svolgendo il Congresso della Christian Social Union (CSU), che già in passato si era dissociata a chiare lettere dall’operato della Bundeskanzlerin Frau Merkel.
Non è solo questione del problema dei migranti illegali entrati in massa in Germania.
È in discussione la Große Koalition, l’appiattimento della Cdu sulle posizioni socialdemocratiche.
E nulla proibirebbe alla Csu di presentarsi in modo autonomo anche nei Länder ove tradizionalmente si presentava come Union, assieme alla Csu, che ne uscirebbe con le ossa rotte.
Infine, si tenga presente che, sempre almeno al momento attuale, si è consolidata una ‘destra‘ tedesca: Fdp ed AfD hanno al momento il 6% ed il 13% dei voti in campo federale: un 19% che difficilmente potrà essere ignorato. Un 19% che la Csu non può né vuole ignorare.
La Csu ha presentato un programma severamente dissociato da quello classico dell’Union. Rigettare il multiculturalismo e richiedere un sistema di referendum popolari come in Svizzera sarebbe una vera e propria rivoluzione. Qui potete trovare il testo completo.
È tutto un programma fin dal titolo: “Ordnung“. È una parola che scioglie anche il più indurito cuore tedesco.
«Die Ordnung. Grundsatzprogramm der Christlich-Sozialen Union»
«The CSU is Germany’s most paradoxical major political party»
«At a meeting in Munich, party delegates on Saturday unanimously passed a new program that rejects multiculturalism and demands nation-wide referendums of the kind seen in Switzerland»
«The program also reinforces the CSU’s demand for an annual cap on the number of refugees Germany takes in»
«a bastion against a leftist front»
«With or without Angela Merkel»
→ Deutsche Welle. 2016-11-05. Merkel’s Bavarian allies CSU convene – without Merkel
Angela Merkel’s southern allies, the Christian Social Union (CSU), are convening for their annual convention. There’s been tension recently between Merkel and her Bavarian cousins – and this year she’s not been invited.
The Christian Social Union (CSU) is not usually a party to break with tradition. But at this weekend’s annual party conference in Munich, the Catholic conservative party dominated by Bavarian patriots has abandoned decades of protocol and decided not to invite the leader of Germany’s main center-right force, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), to make her usual guest appearance.
Chancellor Angela Merkel’s absence was played down by both allies when it became public last week. “It’s a mutual decision of the two party leaders, following the motto: togetherness instead of staging,” said CSU General Secretary Andreas Scheuer. “We’ve always said the issues should be in the foreground.”
But there’s little doubt that there may have been another reason why Merkel and CSU leader Horst Seehofer might not be keen to share a stage this time – few can forget the humiliation that befell the chancellor at last year’s conference, when, immediately after the speech in which she again refused to offer an upper limit on the number of refugees allowed to enter Germany, Merkel was forced to hang around on stage while Seehofer voiced his party’s objections. “We’ll meet again on this subject,” he told her.
Both the CDU and the CSU are keen to avoid a similar scene this year, because there is still daylight between the two allies on the “upper limit” issue a year later. “There’s no point clearing up open questions on stage,” CSU deputy leader Ilse Aigner told the “Welt am Sonntag” newspaper. “We saw last year what it looks like when you celebrate disagreement. There’s no need to repeat that.”
A regional national party
The CSU is Germany’s most paradoxical major political party. Identifying staunchly with the “Free State of Bavaria,” the CSU always aspires to – and usually gets – federal power (the party currently boasts three cabinet ministers, covering the agriculture, transport, and economic development briefs in Merkel’s cabinet).
The reason for this is the CSU’s long-term alliance with the CDU. The two parties have been locked together by a pact sealed at the dawn of the Federal Republic of Germany that has benefitted both parties – in exchange for not fielding any candidates in Bavaria, the CDU is guaranteed the support of the CSU on a national level. But occasionally, the pressure of national crises creates fissures.
The past year has been one of those times. An influx of several hundred thousand refugees into Germany created a bureaucratic impasse in many parts of the country, and handed media attention and then regional electoral success to the Alternative for Germany (AfD), an anti-EU party that swiftly changed gears and capitalized on fear and xenophobia by offering straightforward anti-immigrant, anti-government populism.
Threat from both sides
In more harmonious times, Merkel and Seehofer seemed happy for Seehofer to play the role of right-wing attack dog to Merkel’s studied, cautious centrism – the formula worked with Germany’s conservative voters, and allowed the CSU to stick to the famous policy dictum expressed by its most storied leader, Franz-Josef Strauss: “There must be no democratically legitimate party right of the CSU.”
But with the AfD gaining nearly a quarter of the vote in some German states this year, that motto has become obsolete. The CSU is currently polling at only 44 percent in its home state, while the AfD has taken 9 percent – anything less than an absolute majority was once considered unthinkable.
And it gets worse for the CSU – the split in the right-wing vote has opened opportunities for a so-called “red-red-green” coalition. Germany’s three big leftist parties – the Social Democrats (SPD), the Left party, and the Greens – have suddenly sensed an opportunity and found common ground. That particular power constellation is about to take over in the state of Berlin, and is being seen as a blueprint for an alternative to a Merkel-led “grand coalition” following the general election in September 2017.
“We’re in a two-front war,” former CSU leader Erwin Huber told the “Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung” on Friday. “Red-red-green on the one side – that formation is now a serious prospect. If the Union isn’t strong enough, then that – I’m convinced – will come after the Bundestag election. And on the other side we have the right-wing populists. Germany is in flux and we’re in the pincers of the party system.”
That might well be why the CDU and the CSU are now so keen to cover the cracks in their relationship. Recently, prominent CSU politicians have spoken with renewed enthusiasm about the prospect of having Merkel as the CDU/CSU candidate next year – for the fourth time running.
“It has become very clear [at the recent two-party summits] that there are huge areas of agreement between the CSU and the CDU,” CSU parliamentary leader Gerda Hasselfeldt told the DPA news agency. “That’s why I’m very confident that we’ll be fighting together next year, election year, together.” With or without Angela Merkel.
→ News Center 1. 2016-11-05. Merkel’s Bavarian allies tilt right ahead of national vote.
BERLIN (AP) – Angela Merkel’s allies in Bavaria are positioning themselves to the right of the chancellor in a bid to win voters disgruntled by her immigration policies at next year’s national election.
The Christian Social Union has always been more conservative than its sister party elsewhere in Germany. But it fears losing ground to the surging nationalist party Alternative for Germany in next year’s vote.
At a meeting in Munich, party delegates on Saturday unanimously passed a new program that rejects multiculturalism and demands nation-wide referendums of the kind seen in Switzerland.
The program also reinforces the CSU’s demand for an annual cap on the number of refugees Germany takes in.
Some 890,000 people applied for asylum in Germany in 2015. Many were fleeing hardship and wars in Syria, Afghanistan and Iraq.
→ The Local. 2016-11-05. Merkel’s Bavarian ally urges joint battle against left
German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s Bavarian ally Horst Seehofer said Friday that while the two differ on the refugee crisis, they must now focus on a joint fight to prevent a leftist government.
Less than a year before national elections, Seehofer told a congress of his CSU party that he remains committed to a national upper limit of 200,000 asylum seekers a year — compared to the nearly 900,000 who arrived last year.
The Bavarian state premier said that as he and Merkel disagreed on this point, she had stayed away from the party congress because neither side wanted to feign a “dishonest compromise”.
“On this question I will not sell the soul of the CSU,” Seehofer said to applause, adding however that talks between the traditional allies, the CSU and Merkel’s CDU, were otherwise going well.
Looking ahead, he said, the common cause of the CDU-CSU must be to prevent a leftist alliance after September 2017 elections of the Social Democrats, Greens and far-left Linke, which succeeded communist East Germany’s Socialist Unity Party or SED.
“Our enemy is not CDU, we’ve always had different views on this or that point,” Seehofer told party faithful in conciliatory words toward Merkel after a bruising year.
“The enemy is red-red-green,” as the suggested three-party alliance is known in Germany’s colour-coded political jargon.
Seehofer said he did not want to see the day “when the SED’s grandchildren return to government in Germany” and vowed that the CSU would always be “a bastion against a leftist front”.
→ Reuters. 2016-11-05. At odds over migrants, German conservatives agree not to party together
German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s conservative ‘Union’ is anything but unified, with her Bavarian allies preparing to hold their annual party conference without her as the alliance struggles to repair divisions over her open-door migrant policy.
A year ago, the Bavarians’ leader, Horst Seehofer, embarrassed Merkel by criticizing her in front of his Christian Social Union (CSU) party faithful for failing to put a cap, or “Obergrenze”, on the number of refugees entering Germany.
This year, Seehofer and Merkel have agreed to each stay away from the other’s party conference – a split that is holding up a widely expected announcement from her that she will seek a fourth term as chancellor next year.
“We know what an internationally recognized chancellor she is – that is obvious,” Bavarian state Finance Minister Markus Soeder told German broadcaster ARD. “Nevertheless, the issues will be discussed first and then the personnel.”
The CSU is sister party to Merkel’s Christian Democrats (CDU), and together they form ‘The Union’. But angst in the fiercely proud and traditional CSU about last year’s influx of almost a million migrants has sown discord between the allies.
Merkel has repeatedly rejected a migrants cap on the grounds it would be impossible to enforce.
Soeder, a potential successor to Seehofer, refused to say he would support Merkel as the chancellor candidate backed by the CSU, which is sister party to Merkel’s CDU.
The CSU, which holds its conference on Nov. 4-5, faces a regional election in 2018 and is worried about losing votes to the anti-immigration Alternative for Germany (AfD), which has punished the CDU in other state votes this year.
Leading resolutions for debate at the CSU conference are “political Islam is the greatest challenge of our time” and “prevent a slide to the left – so that Germany remains Germany”.
The hard-line tone reflects concerns about the party losing its absolute majority in Bavaria. A poll for SAT.1 Bayern on Thursday put support for the party at 44 percent, with other parties that would get into the regional assembly on 49 percent.
CDU and CSU officials say that by not attending each other’s conferences, Merkel and Seehofer recognize it is in their mutual interests to avoid clashes while they resolve their differences, and before campaigning together for next year’s election.
The CDU holds its party conference in early December.
Keeping some tension over the migrants issue with Merkel, a Protestant pastor’s daughter who grew up in communist East Germany, is in the interests of Seehofer as he tries to stem any further erosion of support to the AfD and parties on the left.
Catholic Bavaria was the point of arrival for most of the nearly 1 million migrants who arrived in Germany last year.
In a television program broadcast earlier this year, Seehofer showed off an elaborate train-set at his home which features a figurine of Merkel standing at the main station.
“In relaxed times between me and the chancellor, she is the boss of the complex,” he said standing proudly over the train set, before revealing that he moves her figurine to the window sill when they argue. “In difficult times: window sill.”